Turkey vs Italy: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Saturday, 26 September 2026 by Steve
Turkey vs Italy
UEFA Nations League 2026/27 — League A Group A1 Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Kosovo 0-1 Turkey: Turkey reach first World Cup in 24 years - BBC Sport
Turkey welcome Italy to Bursa on Monday evening for an intriguing UEFA Nations League Group A1 contest between two national teams beginning important rebuilding projects. The fixture is Turkey’s second match of the new campaign after Friday’s difficult home game against France, while Roberto Mancini’s Italy arrive following their opening assignment against Belgium. With France, Belgium and Italy all occupying the same section, Turkey cannot afford a slow start if they intend to preserve their place among Europe’s elite for the next Nations League cycle. Readers looking at the wider Monday card can also explore our football predictions for today.
The stakes are especially significant for Turkey. Vincenzo Montella’s side earned promotion to League A after winning its previous Nations League group, but the excitement generated by qualification was followed by a deeply disappointing 2026 World Cup. Turkey lost to Australia and Paraguay before finishing with an encouraging 3–2 victory over the United States. That late win offered some encouragement, although the absence of captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Juventus forward Kenan Yıldız through injury has again complicated Montella’s preparation. Italy are also beginning again after missing the World Cup, with Mancini returning for a second spell and selecting a deliberately large, youthful squad for four matches in 11 days. For context on Italy’s most recent international examinations, see our previous Greece vs Italy prediction and Luxembourg vs Italy prediction.
Italy’s historical control of this fixture is impossible to ignore. The Azzurri are unbeaten in every senior meeting with Turkey and have won nine of the teams’ 13 encounters, with the other four finishing level. The most recent meeting ended goalless in Bologna in June 2024, but that result is unlikely to be repeated if Turkey’s current attacking players reproduce the intensity shown against the USA. The Crescent-Stars will need Arda Güler to dictate the tempo, while Italy can call upon a technically secure midfield and enough emerging talent to rotate without losing too much quality. The predicted outcome is a narrow away victory, with Italy’s superior depth eventually making the difference in the second half.
Tactical Preview
Solid shifts from Bastoni, Dimarco, Frattesi & Calhanoglu in Italy vs Turkey
Formation & Key Matchups
Turkey 4-2-3-1
Turkey are expected to retain Montella’s familiar 4-2-3-1 structure. İsmail Yüksek and Salih Özcan should operate as a double pivot, giving the side a platform to press aggressively without leaving the centre-backs completely exposed. Ahead of them, Arda Güler will be given freedom to move between the lines, drift right and attack the half-spaces. Kerem Aktürkoğlu’s direct running on the left and Barış Alper Yılmaz’s ability to carry the ball in transition give Turkey two different methods of stretching Italy’s back line. Without Hakan Çalhanoğlu, however, Turkey may lack their usual precision when attempting to switch play quickly under pressure. The full-backs must also choose their moments carefully because Italy’s midfielders are accomplished at stepping forward to intercept loose passes.
Italy 4-3-3
Italy should begin in a 4-3-3 that can become a 4-2-3-1 when Sandro Tonali or Davide Frattesi moves higher. Gianluigi Donnarumma will look to begin attacks quickly, while Alessandro Bastoni’s left-footed distribution could be important against Turkey’s first wave of pressure. Nicolò Barella will supply the forward-running energy from midfield, Tonali should control the space between defence and attack, and Riccardo Calafiori offers width from left-back. The more experimental area is Italy’s right flank, where Michael Kayode and Antonio Vergara could start in a youthful combination. That unpredictability may trouble Turkey, but it is also an area where the home side’s experienced wide players can create overloads. More tactical background is available in our article on the evolution of football tactics.
Critical Vulnerability
Turkey’s most significant vulnerability is the defensive transition immediately after attacks break down. Güler, Kerem and Barış Alper are encouraged to commit players forward, but losing possession in advanced areas can leave the two holding midfielders isolated. Italy have the passers to exploit those gaps before Abdülkerim Bardakcı and Merih Demiral can reorganise. The absence of Çalhanoğlu further increases the risk because Turkey do not have an identical replacement for his calm receiving under pressure. Conversely, Italy’s inexperienced right side may be exposed by Kerem Aktürkoğlu running at Kayode. That duel should be one of the game’s defining contests and could be central to whether Turkey manage to score.
Team News & Squad Status
Turkey 🔁
- Major absentees: Captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu is unavailable with an adductor problem, while Kenan Yıldız has not recovered sufficiently to rejoin the squad. Mert Müldür is also missing.
- Injury concern: Orkun Kökçü has been managing a toe problem and missed several training sessions before the France match. He must be considered doubtful for Monday.
- Late addition: Mustafa Eskihellaç was added to the squad on 23 September, giving Montella another experienced wide and wing-back option.
- New call-ups: Adil Demirbağ, Bartuğ Elmaz, Melih Kabasakal and İlhan Fakılı have received their first senior invitations as Turkey begin introducing greater depth.
- Main attacking hope: Arda Güler is available and will carry much of the creative responsibility in Çalhanoğlu’s absence.
Italy 📈
- Withdrawals: Bryan Cristante and Federico Dimarco were unable to continue with the squad after reporting physical problems at Coverciano.
- Replacements: Como's Samuele Ricci replaced Cristante, while Aston Villa defender Matteo Ruggeri was called up following Dimarco’s withdrawal.
- Injury absences: Manuel Locatelli, Federico Chiesa and Marco Palestra were not available for selection.
- Youth movement: Mancini included nine first-time senior call-ups, with Massimo Pessina, Daniele Ghilardi, Michael Kayode, Eddy Kouadio, Alessandro Romano, Issa Doumbia, Sebastiano Esposito, Antonio Vergara and Mohamed Alì Zoma all hoping to debut.
- Squad management: Four matches in 11 days make rotation inevitable, but Gianluigi Donnarumma, Bastoni, Barella and Tonali should remain central figures.
Predicted Lineups
Barella unavailable for Italy friendly against Turkey - June 4 latest
| Turkey 4-2-3-1 | Italy 4-3-3 |
|---|---|
| GK: Uğurcan Çakır | GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma |
| RB: Zeki Çelik | RB: Michael Kayode |
| CB: Merih Demiral | CB: Gianluca Mancini |
| CB: Abdülkerim Bardakcı | CB: Alessandro Bastoni |
| LB: Eren Elmalı | LB: Riccardo Calafiori |
| DM: İsmail Yüksek | CM: Sandro Tonali |
| DM: Salih Özcan | CM: Nicolò Barella |
| RW: Arda Güler | CM: Davide Frattesi |
| AM: İrfan Can Kahveci | RW: Antonio Vergara |
| LW: Kerem Aktürkoğlu | ST: Moise Kean |
| ST: Barış Alper Yılmaz | LW: Daniel Maldini |
Head-to-Head Record
Furious Real Madrid star Arda Guler reacts to Turkey being knocked out of World Cup | Goal.com
Turkey and Italy have met 13 times at senior international level. Italy have won nine of those matches and the remaining four have been drawn, meaning Turkey are still searching for their first victory over the Azzurri. The most recent meeting was a tight goalless draw in Bologna in June 2024, while Italy claimed a thrilling 3–2 friendly victory in Konya in March 2022. The Azzurri also won the most important modern meeting, opening UEFA Euro 2020 with a convincing 3–0 success in Rome.
Although the overall record is heavily weighted towards Italy, the pattern has not always been one-sided. Four of the 13 meetings have ended level, and Turkey twice pushed the Azzurri hard before conceding decisive goals. Across the last three encounters, Italy have scored six goals to Turkey’s two, with two of those three matches producing more than 2.5 goals. Turkey’s home support should make this latest meeting more competitive, but the Azzurri’s ability to manage key moments remains a substantial psychological advantage. Further international context can be found in our Turkey vs USA prediction and Australia vs Turkey prediction.
Key Players Comparison
Güler is Turkey’s principal creative outlet and is capable of scoring from range, delivering set pieces and threading passes behind a defensive line.
Barella gives Italy energy between the boxes, arriving late in the penalty area and pressing aggressively whenever possession is lost.
Aktürkoğlu’s pace and willingness to attack the left channel will test Italy’s young right side and provide Turkey with a valuable outlet in transition.
Bastoni’s left-footed passing and composure under pressure will be crucial when Italy attempt to play through Turkey’s aggressive first press.
The headline contest is likely to be Güler against Italy’s midfield block. Güler will try to find pockets of space between Tonali and the centre-backs, while Barella and Frattesi must prevent him from turning with the ball. Bastoni’s distribution could also become a weapon if Turkey press with their front four, because one accurate diagonal can quickly move play into the space behind the advanced full-back. Italy possess more depth across every department, but Turkey’s strongest players have the individual quality to create chances without sustained possession. Additional full-time selections from this fixture are available on our full-time prediction page.
The Managers
Vincenzo Montella — Turkey
Montella remains in charge despite the pressure created by Turkey’s World Cup elimination. The federation publicly supported him after the tournament, and the Nations League now provides an immediate opportunity to demonstrate that the disappointment in North America was a temporary setback rather than evidence of a broken project.
The former Italy striker knows the Azzurri’s footballing culture well, which could help Turkey prepare for Mancini’s preferred patterns of play. Montella’s challenge is to construct a coherent midfield without Çalhanoğlu and possibly without Kökçü. He must also decide whether to prioritise control through İsmail and Salih or add another attacking midfielder to support Güler against Italy.
Roberto Mancini — Italy
Mancini has returned to the Italy bench for a second spell with a clear mandate to restore confidence and introduce a new generation. His first squad contains experienced figures such as Donnarumma, Barella, Bastoni and Tonali, but also an unusually high number of potential debutants.
The schedule explains much of that approach. Italy play four Nations League matches in 11 days, so Mancini needs fresh legs and must assess players who could become important during the Euro 2028 cycle. The short-term danger is a lack of cohesion, particularly if several young players start together, but Italy’s underlying structure should remain recognisable and disciplined.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 2.10
The European decimal odds make Italy a moderate away favourite, with Turkey available around 3.25 and the draw close to 3.30. Mancini’s team has greater squad depth, an excellent head-to-head record and a midfield that should control possession for long stretches. Even if Mancini rotates part of his side, Italy have more established options from the bench. Turkey remain dangerous through Güler, Kerem and Barış Alper, but their absentee list is more damaging. See our wider full-time betting predictions for comparable selections.
Odds: 1.73
Italy have kept clean sheets in several recent meetings with Turkey, but the hosts’ current attacking players offer more individual threat than in previous editions of this fixture. Güler’s set-piece delivery, Kerem’s pace and Barış Alper’s powerful running should create opportunities against an Italian side that may include inexperienced combinations. Italy also have enough technical quality to score against a Turkish transition defence that can become stretched. The price for both teams to score offers a sensible value alternative to the away win. Similar markets are covered on our BTTS and GG/NG predictions page.
Odds: 1.90
The last competitive chapter of this rivalry suggests a competitive contest rather than a repeat of Italy’s 3–0 Euro 2020 win. Turkey are likely to press higher at home, but that ambition could leave room for Italy’s mobile midfielders to exploit the spaces behind them. Both teams have reason to attack: Turkey need a positive result after their World Cup disappointment, while Italy want to begin Mancini’s return with authority. Two of the last three meetings between the countries produced at least three goals. More advice on this market is available through our over/under prediction page.
Odds: 1.68
This is the safer route for bettors who expect Italy to be the better side but are concerned by the possibility of another close draw. The Azzurri have drawn four of their 13 meetings with Turkey, including the most recent encounter, so the draw cannot be dismissed. Draw no bet removes that outcome from the wager while still allowing a position on the visitors. It is particularly appealing given the uncertainty surrounding Italy’s likely rotation and Turkey’s strong home environment. Related options can be found on our draw no bet predictions page.
Odds: 10.00
The 1–2 correct score is our speculative value play because it combines Italy’s superiority in the head-to-head record with Turkey’s realistic chance of scoring in front of their own supporters. The predicted sequence is an early period of Turkish pressure followed by Italy taking control after the opening goal. A second-half equaliser would set up a tense finish, with Italy’s bench providing the decisive attacking change. Correct score bets carry substantially more risk, so this should be treated as a small-stake option. Additional score ideas are available on our correct score tips page.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
The predicted 2–1 Italy victory is based on the Azzurri’s stronger squad depth, dominant head-to-head record and greater stability in central midfield. Turkey should begin with intensity, using the energy of the Bursa crowd to press Italy’s first pass. That approach may create the first serious opportunities, but it will also leave space for Tonali and Barella to break forward. Italy’s likely route to goal involves quick circulation from Bastoni into Maldini or Vergara, followed by a finish from Kean or a late-arriving midfielder.
Turkey are expected to remain competitive throughout and can score through Güler’s creativity or a direct transition involving Kerem Aktürkoğlu. However, sustaining that level for the full 90 minutes is more difficult without Çalhanoğlu organising possession and Kökçü potentially unavailable. Italy’s substitutes should offer greater control during the final half-hour, and that is when the winning goal is most likely to arrive. The selection fits our view of an entertaining game and supports both the away win and both teams to score.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Italy are unbeaten in all 13 senior meetings with Turkey.
- The Azzurri have won nine of those matches, with four draws.
- Italy scored six goals across the last three head-to-head meetings.
- Two of the last three Turkey-Italy matches produced over 2.5 goals.
- Turkey’s captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu is out with an adductor injury.
- Kenan Yıldız and Mert Müldür are also unavailable for Montella.
- Orkun Kökçü remains doubtful because of a persistent toe problem.
- Italy have lost Bryan Cristante and Federico Dimarco to physical issues.
- Mancini’s Italy squad contains nine players hoping to make their senior debuts.
- Turkey’s best attacking route is likely to come from Güler, Kerem and Barış Alper in transition.
- Italy’s greater bench depth should become especially important late in the second half.
- Our final prediction is Turkey 1-2 Italy, with both teams expected to score.
Conclusion
Turkey vs Italy brings together two teams attempting to move beyond recent disappointments. Montella needs to show that his young side can compete without its most influential midfielder, while Mancini wants to begin his second Italy reign with a result that validates his decision to embrace new players. Turkey’s home support and attacking speed ensure this will not be straightforward for the visitors, but the overall balance still favours Italy.
The strongest betting position is Italy to win at 2.10, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals also supported by the expected tactical pattern. More conservative bettors can consider Italy draw no bet at 1.68, particularly because Turkey have drawn four of their 13 previous meetings with the Azzurri. Turkey 1-2 Italy is the value correct score at 10.00, although correct score betting should always be approached with caution. Alternative insurance markets are available on our double chance prediction page.
Italy should ultimately possess the patience and bench quality required to secure a narrow victory. Turkey are capable of scoring and may threaten most when Italy’s less experienced players are adjusting to the atmosphere, but the Azzurri’s midfield control and historical confidence in this fixture provide the decisive edge. Our final score prediction is Turkey 1-2 Italy.
