Ukraine vs Georgia: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Sunday, 15 November 2026 by Steve
Ukraine vs Georgia Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview
2026–27 UEFA Nations League – League B Group 2 Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Illia Zabarnyi Reacts to Ukraine's Loss Against France in World Cup Qualifiers
It's a genuine relegation shoot-out in League B Group 2. Ukraine and Georgia meet in Košice on Tuesday 17 November 2026 with survival in the division effectively on the line — and with it, the trajectory of both nations heading into the next World Cup qualifying cycle. Ukraine, forced once again to stage their "home" fixtures in exile because of the ongoing war, have chosen the modern Košická futbalová aréna in eastern Slovakia, where a large and passionate Ukrainian diaspora is expected to turn the stadium into a sea of blue and yellow. Andrea Maldera's side sit third in the group with four points from four matches, while Georgia, under new coach Ramaz Svanadze, prop up the section with two points and — remarkably — zero goals scored in the entire campaign. Something, quite literally, has to give.
The context is dramatic on both sides. Ukraine began the campaign superbly, winning 1-0 in Budapest against Hungary on Matchday 1, but collapsed thereafter: a goalless draw in Tbilisi was followed by back-to-back home defeats in Trnava, a humiliating 3-0 loss to Northern Ireland and a painful 1-2 reverse against Hungary decided by an 85th-minute winner. Georgia's story is the mirror image — defensively resilient but blunt in attack, losing 1-0 at home to Northern Ireland in stoppage time, drawing 0-0 with Ukraine, losing 1-0 in Budapest and drawing 0-0 in Belfast. Two goals conceded in four games is an excellent defensive return; zero scored is a crisis. If you study today's football predictions regularly, you will know that games between evenly matched, low-scoring teams are where disciplined analysis pays the most.
The permutations are straightforward and add spice to an already feisty rivalry: Georgia must win to climb above Ukraine and escape the automatic relegation spots, while a victory for the Blue and Yellow guarantees at least third place and a shot at redemption in the spring relegation play-offs. Both teams play decisive fixtures three days earlier — Ukraine travel to Belfast to face Northern Ireland while Georgia host Hungary in Tbilisi — so fatigue, rotation and momentum will all feed into this final-round encounter. History, however, whispers a warning to the hosts: Ukraine have never beaten Georgia in five previous meetings. Our full draw prediction methodology flags this fixture as one where the market and the narrative are pulling in opposite directions, and we explain below why we still land on a Ukraine win.
Tactical Preview
Milan Made Contact for Ukraine International Roman Yaremchuk - The Cult of Calcio
Formation & Key Matchups
Ukraine 4-2-3-1
Andrea Maldera has settled Ukraine into a possession-based 4-2-3-1 since taking over in the spring, with captain Mykola Matviyenko and Illia Zabarnyi forming a centre-back pairing that is comfortable stepping into midfield. Georgiy Sudakov operates as the advanced playmaker between the lines, flanked by quick wide attackers, with Roman Yaremchuk leading the line as the reference point. The double pivot — likely Yehor Nazaryna alongside Sudakov's deeper partner — must supply urgency that has been missing: Ukraine have scored only twice in four Nations League matches, and their build-up has too often been sterile against compact blocks. The 4-2-3-1 structure gives them the extra body between the lines that a tactical breakdown of the 4-2-3-1 shows is crucial for breaking down low-block defences — exactly what Georgia will deploy.
Georgia 4-3-3
Georgia under Ramaz Svanadze remain structurally disciplined, lining up in a compact 4-3-3 that morphs into a 4-5-1 without the ball. The loss of captain Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from this squad changes everything in the final third: without his one-v-one magic, Georgia have relied on collective pressing and transitions, with Georges Mikautadze drifting between the lines as the lone focal point and Giorgi Chakvetadze arriving late from the left half-space. Giorgi Mamardashvili behind them is arguably the best goalkeeper on the pitch and the reason Georgia have conceded just twice in the group. Svanadze's teams are drilled in controlling the middle third and then striking quickly through Zuriko Davitashvili on the left flank, who will test Ukraine's right-back relentlessly.
Critical Vulnerability
Georgia's critical vulnerability is self-evident: they have not scored a single goal in 360 minutes of Nations League football. Without Kvaratskhelia there is no proven game-breaker, and Mikautadze has been isolated — he touched the ball fewer times than his own goalkeeper in one recent outing. Ukraine's vulnerability is psychological as much as tactical: a young side playing far from home, short on confidence after conceding five goals across two Trnava defeats, and winless in five against these very opponents. The flanks are where the game will be decided: whoever wins the wide duels — Ukraine's overlapping full-backs against Georgia's transition wingers — will dictate whether this is a siege or a stalemate.
Team News & Squad Status
Ukraine 🟢🟡🔴🔴
- Head coach Andrea Maldera named a 25-man squad on 4 November for the Belfast and Košice fixtures, mixing experience with a new generation.
- Two enforced attacking changes: Oleksandr Zubkov (AEK Athens) withdrew injured on 5 November, while young forward Matviy Ponomarenko pulled out on 9 November — veteran Artem Dovbyk was promoted from the reserve list as his replacement.
- Vladyslav Vanat and Mykola Shaparenko were drafted in to freshen the attacking and midfield options.
- Mykhailo Mudryk remains a long-term absentee and is not part of the selection pool.
- Captain Mykola Matviyenko (Shakhtar Donetsk) anchors the defence alongside Illia Zabarnyi (Bournemouth), with Vitaliy Mykolenko at left-back.
- Dmytro Riznyk has started three of the four group games in goal, ahead of Anatoliy Trubin (Benfica) and Georgiy Yermakov.
- Georgiy Sudakov is the creative hub; Roman Yaremchuk (19 international goals) leads the line with Danylo Sikan and Vladyslav Vanat as alternatives.
- Yehor Yarmoliuk (Brentford) and Oleh Ocheretko provide energy in the engine room.
Georgia 🔴🔴🟡🟡
- Huge news: captain and talisman Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Paris Saint-Germain) is NOT in the November squad — his last involvement was the October window, and his absence strips Georgia of their only proven match-winner.
- Record cap-holder Guram Kashia (129 appearances) retired in June 2026 and has joined Ramaz Svanadze's coaching staff.
- Otar Kiteishvili (Sturm Graz) is out injured, removing one of the most experienced midfielders.
- Nika Gagnidze (Kolos Kovalivka) was added to the squad on 9 November.
- Giorgi Mamardashvili (Liverpool) starts in goal behind a back four featuring Otar Kakabadze, Lasha Dvali and Monza youngster Saba Goglichidze.
- Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal), joint-top active scorer with 23 goals in 47 caps, carries the entire goalscoring burden.
- Zuriko Davitashvili (Saint-Étienne), Giorgi Chakvetadze (Udinese) and Giorgi Tsitaishvili (Rayo Vallecano) form a technical but lightweight supporting cast.
- Interesting subplot: left-back Irakli Azarovi plays his club football for Shakhtar Donetsk in Ukraine — he knows most of the hosts personally.
Predicted Lineups
News - www.fcloco.ge
| Ukraine 4-2-3-1 | Georgia 4-3-3 |
|---|---|
| Dmytro Riznyk (GK) | Giorgi Mamardashvili (GK) |
| Valeriy Bondar (RB) | Otar Kakabadze (RB) |
| Illia Zabarnyi (CB) | Saba Goglichidze (CB) |
| Mykola Matviyenko (CB, c) | Lasha Dvali (CB) |
| Vitaliy Mykolenko (LB) | Irakli Azarovi (LB) |
| Yehor Nazaryna (DM) | Anzor Mekvabishvili (CM) |
| Georgiy Sudakov (CM) | Giorgi Kochorashvili (CM) |
| Eduard Sarapyi (RW) | Giorgi Chakvetadze (CM) |
| Mykola Shaparenko (AM) | Zuriko Davitashvili (LW) |
| Vladyslav Vanat (LW) | Giorgi Tsitaishvili (RW) |
| Roman Yaremchuk (ST) | Georges Mikautadze (ST) |
Head-to-Head Record
Georgia's goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili named best footballer of Georgia vs. Czechia match - 1TV
The head-to-head record is one of the most unusual in European football: Ukraine have never beaten Georgia. The sides first met in September 2007, a 1-1 draw in Tbilisi during Euro 2008 qualifying, and repeated that scoreline in a 2015 friendly. The rivalry intensified in the 2024–25 Nations League, when Georgia won 1-0 in Wrocław — Ukraine's then-exile home — before a 1-1 draw in Tbilisi. The most recent meeting came on 28 September 2026, a tactical 0-0 in front of over 43,000 fans at the Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena that ultimately cost Willy Sagnol his job. Five meetings, four draws, one Georgian victory, and an aggregate score of just 3-4 across two decades of football.
What explains the pattern? Traditionally, Georgia's deep block has neutralised Ukraine's technically superior but patient possession game, and the psychological edge has slowly shifted towards the Crusaders. But this is a different Georgia — no Kvaratskhelia, no Kashia, and no goals in four. Our form guide approach weights current-season output heavily, and by that measure the historical stranglehold is at its most vulnerable. The two group rivals who have beaten both of these sides recently, Northern Ireland and Hungary, face each other on the same final matchday in a game previewed in our Northern Ireland vs Hungary preview — the whole group concludes simultaneously, which adds pressure and removes any safety net of scoreboard-watching.
Key Players Comparison
The 24-year-old Shakhtar playmaker is the man most capable of picking a lock that has resisted Ukraine for five meetings. His movement between the lines will test Georgia's double pivot.
19 goals in 72 caps and Ukraine's only scorer in the October window (a late strike against Hungary). His aerial presence against Lasha Dvali is a genuine mismatch Ukraine must exploit.
The Bournemouth centre-back, 24, has quietly become one of Europe's most complete young defenders and will be charged with smothering Mikautadze in one-v-one situations.
Villarreal's forward has 23 goals in 47 internationals — a sensational 0.49 per game — yet has been starved of service all campaign. One chance is all he needs.
Liverpool's 26-year-old goalkeeper has produced a 89% save rate in the group stage by some metrics and single-handedly kept the Crusaders in games they had no right to stay in.
The Saint-Étienne winger, already with 58 caps at 25, is Georgia's most dangerous transition runner and the chief creative outlet in Kvaratskhelia's absence.
The individual battle that matters most is Yaremchuk against the Georgian centre-backs. Georgia have conceded only twice in the group, but both goals came from crosses and second balls rather than intricate play — exactly the profile of Yaremchuk's game. At the other end, the duel between Mikautadze and Zabarnyi pits the division's most clinical finisher against its most composed defender; in a tight game, one moment of quality from either settles it. Our Spain vs Croatia preview from the same matchday shows how star duels tend to decide low-scoring Nations League deciders, and this fixture follows the same logic.
The Managers
Andrea Maldera
Maldera's appointment in the spring of 2026 was one of the boldest in Ukraine's history: the Italian, previously part of the Italy national team setup, replaced Serhiy Rebrov after Ukraine's World Cup dream died in Valencia, where a Viktor Gyökeres hat-trick sank them 3-1 in the play-off semi-final despite Matviy Ponomarenko's stoppage-time consolation. Handed a two-pronged brief — stabilise results and blood a new generation — Maldera has leaned on a 4-2-3-1 identity and given debuts to several U21 graduates.
His record so far reads two wins, a draw and two defeats across his opening five matches, a fair reflection of a transitional team. The criticism has centred on a lack of incision: two goals in four Nations League games is not acceptable for a side with Ukraine's attacking talent, and the 3-0 home humiliation by Northern Ireland was the low point of his tenure. A win here would fundamentally change the narrative of his first campaign and secure the spring safety net of the relegation play-offs — expectations in Kyiv are that anything less is failure.
Ramaz Svanadze
Svanadze's is a story of opportunity born from shock. When Willy Sagnol — the architect of Euro 2024 history — was sacked less than 24 hours after Shea Charles' 99th-minute winner stunned Tbilisi on Matchday 1, the Georgian federation turned inwards, promoting the 45-year-old U21 boss on a contract to the end of 2028. His first three games in charge (0-0 Ukraine, 0-1 Hungary, 0-0 Northern Ireland) show the hallmark of his tenure: organisation without end product, three games unbeaten-in-defeat but winless and scoreless.
Svanadze has surrounded himself with familiar faces, most poignantly the newly retired Guram Kashia, the nation's record appearance-maker with 129 caps, who now serves as a coach on his staff. The long-term project is about integrating the U21 conveyor belt — Saba Goglichidze, Giorgi Kvernadze and Nodar Lominadze are all products of it — but the short-term demand is stark: avoid relegation, and find a goal from somewhere. A victory in Košice would instantly validate the federation's gamble and complete a remarkable personal arc for the former caretaker of 2020.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 2.39
Wincomparator's model prices a Ukraine victory at 46.72%, implying clear value against the 2.39 best price available (Betwinner) — an implied probability of just 41.8%. The hosts have the superior individuals, the motivation of survival, and a near-home crowd in Košice, while Georgia travel without Kvaratskhelia, Kiteishvili and retired legend Kashia. Our European 1X2 analysis guide stresses buying value on favourites in must-win games between evenly-matched sides, and this is precisely that profile. See how it compares with our bet of the day selections.
Odds: 2.10
The market is pricing this as another tight, defensive affair — understandable given Georgia's four consecutive goalless displays and the 0-0 in Tbilisi. But context matters: Georgia must win to survive, which will force them out of their shell for the first time in the campaign, and Ukraine's home form in this competition (four goals across their last two "home" games) suggests goals when they commit numbers forward. Our model projects three goals, making the Over a value play. Compare lines across our Over/Under predictions page before placing.
Odds: 2.25
Ukraine have underperformed their expected goals badly this autumn, managing just two strikes in four games, but the talent gap in attacking areas is significant — Sudakov, Yaremchuk, Dovbyk, Sikan and Vanat is a deeper pool than Georgia's defence has faced all campaign. Against a side missing its captain and creative hub, two home goals is a realistic ask and the 2.25 price is generous. For alternative cover, consider pairing it with a double chance anchor in an accumulator, or the insurance angle of draw no bet.
Odds: 9.50
Our headline prediction lands on 2-1. Georgia's defensive record (two goals conceded in four) says they will not collapse, and their desperation in the final half-hour should finally produce the goal that ends their 360-minute drought — Mikautadze is too good to stay scoreless forever. But Ukraine's greater depth, set-piece threat and crowd advantage should see them through. Correct score betting is a specialist market — study our correct score tips before staking, and check the latest in our GG/NG (BTTS) analysis, where the "No" price reflects Georgia's drought but arguably overreacts to it.
Odds: 2.75
The speculative angle backs Georgia's drought to end through its most reliable finisher. Mikautadze averages nearly a goal every two internationals (23 in 47) and is Georgia's designated penalty taker, a relevant route given Ukraine's aggressive full-back play. It contradicts Georgia's recent scoring record, which is exactly why the price exists — a small-stakes sprinkle for those who believe a team must score eventually. Keep stakes modest and consult our banker of the day for a more conservative companion selection, or browse tomorrow's predictions once this one settles.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We forecast Ukraine to end their hex over Georgia with a hard-fought 2-1 victory. The match should follow a familiar script for the opening hour: Georgia's disciplined 4-3-3 absorbing pressure, Mamardashvili keeping the score level, and Ukraine growing increasingly urgent. The breakthrough, when it comes, is likely to arrive from a set piece or a second-phase attack rather than open play — Yaremchuk's aerial duel with Dvali is the mismatch to watch, and we back the Ukrainian target man to score his second goal of the campaign. Georgia, forced to chase the result that keeps them alive, will commit bodies forward for the first time in the group and finally find the net through Mikautadze, ending their scoreless run in the 75-85 minute window.
But the extra attacking energy will leave spaces that Maldera's bench — deeper than Svanadze's by a clear margin — is built to exploit, and we expect a late Ukrainian winner, potentially from substitute Dovbyk or a Sudakov arrive-and-strike from the edge of the area. For those looking at derivative markets, our first-half betting strategy guide suggests this profile suits a "level at half-time, home win" angle, while Georgia's recent clean-sheet habits make the clean sheet an unlikely companion to a Ukraine win.
Key Insights & Statistics
Internationals: Georges Mikautadze once again dazzles with Georgia
- Relegation decider: Ukraine (4 pts, 3rd) host Georgia (2 pts, 4th) with automatic relegation to League C looming for the loser of the head-to-head.
- Georgia have scored ZERO goals in four Nations League matches (0-1, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0) — 360 minutes without finding the net.
- Georgia's defensive record is superb: just two goals conceded, thanks in large part to Mamardashvili's shot-stopping.
- Ukraine are winless in all five previous meetings with Georgia (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat) — a psychological hurdle for the hosts.
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is absent from Georgia's squad — the captain and talisman has not been selected for the November window.
- Ukraine play their "home" games in exile; Košice's modern arena, close to the Ukrainian border, should feel like a genuine home crowd.
- Both teams play three days earlier (Ukraine in Belfast, Georgia vs Hungary in Tbilisi) — rotation and fatigue could shape the Košice lineups.
- Ukraine have scored only twice in the group, but both came in defeat — converting dominance into goals is Maldera's unsolved problem; our recent form analysis suggests their underlying numbers are kinder than the scorelines.
- Georgia have won over 3.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 matches — a set-piece angle if they chase the game late.
- The winner keeps their destiny in their own hands; a draw likely suits neither and could relegate Georgia if results elsewhere conspire.
Conclusion
Ukraine vs Georgia in Košice is everything the November Nations League window should be: genuine stakes, a rivalry with history, new coaches under pressure, and two teams with opposite but equally glaring flaws. Ukraine cannot score, Georgia will not score, and yet one of them must find a way. The market leans towards a tight, low-scoring affair, and history — four draws in five meetings — screams for another one.
We are deliberately going against both grains. Georgia without Kvaratskhelia, Kiteishvili and the retired Kashia is a diminished version of the side that has frustrated Ukraine for two decades, while Ukraine's need, home-crowd advantage and superior squad depth tip the balance at last. Our final score prediction is Ukraine 2-1 Georgia: a set-piece opener, a desperate Georgian equaliser through Mikautadze, and a late winner from the hosts' deeper bench. The key betting angles are the Ukraine win at 2.39, the Over 2.5 goals at 2.10, and the 2-1 correct score at 9.50, with Mikautadze anytime at 2.75 as the speculative contrary play.
Whatever happens, this fixture is quickly becoming one of Europe's most intriguing regional rivalries — two proud footballing nations, one golden generation each passing the torch, and a scoreboard in Košice that will shape both federations' next two years. For more clashes of this kind, read our piece on the next big football rivalry in Europe, and check the site throughout the final matchday for coverage of every decisive Nations League tie. Gamble responsibly, and enjoy what should be a fascinating evening in eastern Slovakia.
