Belgium vs Italy: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Friday, 13 November 2026 by Steve
Belgium vs Italy
UEFA Nations League Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Inter wingback Federico Dimarco named MOTM for Italy vs Belgium
Belgium and Italy meet again at the Stade Roi Baudouin on Sunday, 15 November 2026, with a place among the leading sides in UEFA Nations League Group A1 still at stake. This is the second confrontation between the teams in the 2026/27 competition, following Belgium’s impressive 2-0 victory in Rome on 25 September. Mark van Bommel’s side will be backed by a fervent Brussels crowd and knows that victory may be essential to move above Italy, although the result of Italy’s Thursday encounter with France will also affect the final scenario. Supporters looking for the wider betting picture can compare this fixture with the selections on our daily football predictions page and follow Italy’s preceding match through our Italy vs France Nations League preview.
As of Thursday’s fixtures, France lead the group with ten points from four matches, while Italy are second on seven and Belgium third on six. Türkiye remain bottom without a point. Those standings mean Belgium cannot afford a passive performance. Van Bommel’s players have beaten Italy and Türkiye but lost twice to France, while Roberto Mancini’s Italy responded to the opening defeat in Rome with a commanding 4-1 victory in Türkiye, a 1-1 draw against France and a 3-1 home success over Türkiye. Belgium’s average of 2.75 total goals per Nations League match and Italy’s 3.25 suggest that another open contest is likely in Brussels. Readers assessing recent sequences can also consult our guide to how football form influences match predictions.
The fixture also offers an interesting contrast in team direction. Belgium are attempting to establish a new identity under Van Bommel after reaching the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals, blending the experience of Kevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans and Romelu Lukaku with the speed of Jérémy Doku, Leandro Trossard and Loïs Openda. Italy, meanwhile, are in the early months of Mancini’s second spell and are attempting to move beyond the disappointment of missing the World Cup. The Azzurri possess an exciting mixture of established internationals and emerging Serie A talents, including Francesco Pio Esposito, Nicolò Cambiaghi and Michael Kayode. With Belgium seeking home revenge for past defeats in this rivalry and Italy determined to protect second place, the match has all the ingredients for a compelling Nations League finale.
Tactical Preview
Football Italia on X: "Multiple sources claim Francesco Pio Esposito will start as Italy's centre-forward in Friday's Nations League game against Belgium." / X
Formation & Key Matchups
Belgium 4-3-3
Van Bommel is expected to retain Belgium’s familiar 4-3-3 structure, using a goalkeeper comfortable playing short, a physically strong central-defensive pairing and attacking full-backs who can provide width when Doku and Trossard move inside. Romeo Lavia should operate as the deepest midfielder, screening transitions and allowing Youri Tielemans to push forward. Kevin De Bruyne will have licence to drift between the lines, particularly into the right half-space, where his passing range can bypass Italy’s first line of pressure. Belgium’s plan will be to attack the space behind Riccardo Calafiori and to isolate Doku against Italy’s right-back, while Trossard’s movement between centre-back and full-back creates an additional problem. For more on how systems control territory and tempo, see our analysis of football tactics and controlling a match.
Italy 4-3-3
Italy should also line up in a 4-3-3 that can become a 4-2-3-1 without the ball. Gianluigi Donnarumma will begin attacks with his long distribution, while Alessandro Bastoni and Giorgio Scalvini offer composed left-footed and right-footed options in the first phase. Sandro Tonali and Nicolò Barella can give the visitors a strong forward-running midfield, with Davide Frattesi adding penalty-box presence. Federico Dimarco will be important on the left, both delivering crosses and moving inside to create an overload. Mancini’s team are unlikely to dominate possession for the entire match, but they can be dangerous when they turn Belgium’s attacking full-backs and recover the ball in midfield. Esposito’s ability to pin central defenders and Cambiaghi’s direct running give Italy an outlet when the visitors break forward.
Critical Vulnerability
Belgium’s most significant vulnerability is the space left behind an aggressive high defensive line, particularly when both full-backs advance. Italy are well equipped to attack that territory with early passes into Esposito or diagonal balls toward Cambiaghi. Conversely, Italy’s left side can be exposed when Dimarco advances and Calafiori is drawn toward Trossard. Doku’s one-on-one dribbling against Michael Kayode could become the decisive individual duel. If Belgium win the first challenge and recover second balls around the box, they can prevent Italy from launching counters; if they overcommit and lose possession cheaply, Mancini’s side have enough pace and technical quality to punish them.
Team News & Squad Status
Belgium 🔴🟢🔴🟢
- Goalkeepers: Thibaut Courtois remains absent from the current national-team setup, leaving Maarten Vandevoordt, Senne Lammens and Mike Penders as the 2026/27 goalkeeping options for this window.
- Late attacking concern: Romelu Lukaku was included in Van Bommel’s group, but live availability listings have flagged the veteran striker as a fitness concern. His condition will determine whether Belgium begin with a traditional target man or use Leandro Trossard or Loïs Openda in a more mobile forward line.
- Doku returns: Jérémy Doku is available after his previous injury absence and provides the vertical dribbling that Belgium lacked during the opening Nations League window.
- Midfield core: Kevin De Bruyne, captain Youri Tielemans and Romeo Lavia offer a strong combination of creativity, ball-winning and control. Nicolò Raskin, Hans Vanaken, Mika Godts and Charles De Ketelaere provide additional tactical options.
- Defensive options: Timothy Castagne, Maxim De Cuyper, Wout Faes, Koni De Winter, Zeno Debast, Brandon Mechele and Arthur Theate are among the defenders competing for starting places.
- Attacking depth: Dodi Lukebakio, Openda, Trossard, Godts and Maxim Fernandez-Pardo give Van Bommel several alternatives if Belgium need a goal in the second half.
Italy 🟢🟡🟢🟢🔴
- Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Donnarumma remains first choice, with Marco Carnesecchi and Guglielmo Vicario completing the senior goalkeeping group.
- Mancini ruled out: Gianluca Mancini has withdrawn because of injury. Matteo Palma received a first senior call-up as cover, while Federico Gatti subsequently joined the group to strengthen Mancini’s centre-back options.
- Zaniolo departs: Nicolò Zaniolo has left the Italy camp for personal reasons and is not expected to feature against France or Belgium.
- Emerging talents: Mancini has continued to introduce younger players, with first call-ups for Cesare Cassano, Francesco Lontani, Lamine Cissé and Tommaso Liberali reflecting Italy’s long-term squad planning for the 2026/27 cycle.
- Defensive foundation: Alessandro Bastoni and Giorgio Scalvini are expected to start at centre-back, with Riccardo Calafiori, Michael Kayode, Raoul Bellanova, Cristiano Biraghi and Gatti offering depth.
- Attacking choices: Francesco Pio Esposito, Nicolò Cambiaghi, Gianluca Scamacca, Giacomo Raspadori and Federico Dimarco compete for the forward positions behind or alongside a technically strong midfield.
Predicted Lineups
Nicolò Barella is the Azzurri's MVP from Italy vs. Belgium
| Belgium 4-3-3 | Italy 4-3-3 |
|---|---|
| GK: Maarten Vandevoordt | GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma |
| RB: Timothy Castagne | RB: Michael Kayode |
| CB: Wout Faes | CB: Alessandro Bastoni |
| CB: Brandon Mechele | CB: Giorgio Scalvini |
| LB: Maxim De Cuyper | LB: Riccardo Calafiori |
| DM: Romeo Lavia | CM: Sandro Tonali |
| CM: Youri Tielemans | CM: Nicolò Barella |
| AM: Kevin De Bruyne | CM: Davide Frattesi |
| RW: Leandro Trossard | RW: Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| ST: Romelu Lukaku | ST: Francesco Pio Esposito |
| LW: Jérémy Doku | LW: Federico Dimarco |
Head-to-Head Record
Italy have historically controlled this rivalry, but Belgium’s 2-0 win in Rome earlier in the 2026/27 Nations League changed the recent narrative. Across the last seven meetings, the teams have produced 19 goals, with Italy winning four, Belgium two and the other match ending in a draw. Italy’s run of success included a 2-1 Nations League victory in 2021, a 2-1 European Championship quarter-final triumph later that year and a narrow 1-0 win in Brussels during the 2024/25 Nations League. Belgium’s previous victory before September had come in a November 2015 friendly, when they defeated Italy 3-1. That scoreline is particularly notable because it is also our predicted result for the Brussels rematch.
The last five competitive meetings before this season had heavily favoured Italy, but Belgium’s September success demonstrated that the gap has narrowed. In that match, Van Bommel’s players were compact without the ball, efficient in transition and clinical enough to take advantage of Italian errors. The rematch should be different because Italy have since developed greater cohesion and Belgium will now carry the burden of attacking in front of their own supporters. The historical trend still warns against underestimating the Azzurri, yet Belgium’s home advantage, current attacking options and evidence from the first meeting make them a justified favourite. Further historical context is available in our football form and head-to-head guide.
Key Players Comparison
De Bruyne remains Belgium’s primary creative reference, capable of changing the direction of an attack with one forward pass. Barella offers Italy a different influence: relentless off-ball running, aggressive ball recovery and the ability to carry possession through pressure.
Lukaku’s physical presence and penalty-box experience remain valuable if he is fit to start. Esposito represents Italy’s next generation: mobile, technically secure and confident enough to connect midfield runs with the attacking line.
Doku will look to attack Kayode and create isolation duels with his explosive acceleration. Dimarco is equally important at the opposite end, where his crossing and intelligent positioning can force De Cuyper into defensive decisions.
De Bruyne is the player most capable of unlocking Italy’s compact midfield, but Belgium cannot become overly dependent on his passing. Tielemans’ movement and Lavia’s positional discipline will determine whether De Bruyne receives the ball in advanced areas. Italy’s key collective player is Barella, whose energy can disrupt Belgium’s rhythm and support Esposito during counters. Donnarumma is another crucial figure: his shot-stopping keeps Italy competitive when opponents dominate territory. For a closer examination of De Bruyne’s creative qualities, read our feature on Kevin De Bruyne as an architect of modern football. The importance of Donnarumma also connects with our explanation of what a clean sheet means in football.
The Managers
Mark van Bommel
Van Bommel inherited a talented Belgium squad after its run to the World Cup quarter-finals and has attempted to combine the side’s traditional technical strengths with greater defensive security. The Nations League campaign has been uneven because Belgium have looked convincing against Italy and Türkiye but struggled against France’s athleticism and attacking depth. That inconsistency is understandable during a managerial transition, but the Brussels finale gives Van Bommel an opportunity to show that his project is progressing.
The Belgian coach has several important decisions to make. Selecting the right balance between Lavia’s protection and De Bruyne’s attacking freedom will be essential, while Doku’s return offers a more natural outlet on the left. Van Bommel must also decide whether Lukaku can lead the line if his fitness remains uncertain. A bold approach may please the home crowd, but controlling Italy’s counterattacks will be just as important as committing players forward.
Roberto Mancini
Mancini’s return has brought familiarity and authority to an Italy team searching for a fresh identity after missing the 2026 World Cup. The coach who guided the Azzurri to the 2020 European Championship knows many of the senior players and has used the new cycle to integrate younger alternatives. The opening defeat in Rome was a setback, but subsequent performances have shown greater attacking fluency, particularly in the victories over Türkiye.
Mancini’s challenge in Brussels is to balance ambition with defensive caution. Italy cannot simply sit deep for 90 minutes because Belgium have too many creators between the lines. At the same time, leaving excessive space in wide areas would invite Doku and Trossard to attack the full-backs. The Azzurri must remain patient, use Tonali and Barella to control central transitions and believe that Esposito and Cambiaghi can exploit the spaces Belgium leave behind their advanced full-backs.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 2.18
Belgium are the value selection at attractive European odds of 2.18. They have already beaten this Italy team in the current campaign, possess home advantage and should benefit from Doku’s return. Although the Red Devils have lost twice to France, those results say more about the group leaders’ quality than about Belgium’s ability against other opposition. Van Bommel’s side have scored six goals in four Nations League matches and can create repeated openings against an Italian defence missing Gianluca Mancini. Italy remain dangerous, but the market price on Belgium offers enough reward to justify the risks. Our European 1X2 betting guide explains how to interpret prices such as 2.18.
Odds: 1.60
Over 2.5 goals appeals at 1.60 because both teams have been involved in high-scoring Nations League fixtures. Belgium’s four group matches have averaged 2.75 total goals, while Italy’s have averaged 3.25. Four of Belgium’s last seven Nations League games and three of Italy’s last four in this campaign have also passed the 2.5-goal mark. The tactical contrast should help: Belgium want to stretch the pitch through Doku and Trossard, while Italy have the midfield runners and young forwards to threaten on the break. This is a lower-priced play, but it fits the attacking profiles of both squads. See our over/under predictions and over/under betting guide for additional context.
Odds: 1.33
Bettors seeking a more conservative option can cover Belgium and the draw at 1.33. The Red Devils are unbeaten in their two Nations League matches against teams other than France and have not lost at home in this group. Even if Italy’s technical quality produces spells of control, Belgium’s combination of home support, individual attacking quality and previous success against Mancini’s side makes outright defeat less likely. The shorter price means this selection is more suitable for combination bets than as a standalone wager. More information is available through our double chance predictions.
Odds: 1.53
Both teams to score at 1.53 is strongly supported by current defensive records and attacking depth. Belgium have kept clean sheets in only 30% of their recent matches, while Italy have managed them in 40%, leaving room for both attacks to find the net. Belgium will commit bodies forward at home, and Italy have enough pace through Cambiaghi and Esposito to exploit the resulting space. Five of the last eight Belgium-Italy meetings have also seen both sides score. This selection aligns closely with our 3-1 prediction and can be combined with a home win for bettors seeking a larger return. Visit our BTTS and GG/NG predictions page for related markets.
Odds: 17.00
The 3-1 correct score is an ambitious speculative play at 17.00, but the attacking evidence makes it more plausible than the odds initially suggest. Belgium’s current group matches have produced 11 goals, Italy’s have produced 13, and both teams are expected to create chances. A Belgium victory with both sides scoring can develop if the hosts score early and Italy are forced to chase the match. A late third Belgian goal would then become increasingly likely as the visitors commit numbers forward. Correct-score wagers are high variance and should therefore involve only a small stake. More score-focused options can be found on our correct score tips page, while our beginner’s guide to reading football odds explains the implied probability behind a 17.00 price.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
Belgium are predicted to win 3-1 in a fast, entertaining Nations League contest. Their home advantage and 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture provide confidence, while Doku’s return gives them a one-on-one attacker capable of destabilizing Italy’s defensive structure. De Bruyne should be influential between the lines, and Trossard’s movement can create the half-chances that determine a tight match. If Lukaku is not fully fit, Belgium still possess enough mobility through Openda and enough depth from the bench to maintain their attacking pressure.
Italy are expected to score because Esposito offers an effective focal point and Belgium have shown defensive vulnerability against quick transitions. Mancini’s midfield runners can move Belgium’s centre-backs away from their preferred positions, particularly if the home full-backs push high. However, Belgium’s greater urgency and the likely crowd support should eventually produce the decisive breakthrough. A 2-1 advantage around the final 20 minutes would place Italy under pressure, with a third Belgian goal arriving as Mancini’s side searches for an equalizer. Our main prediction is therefore a 3-1 Belgium victory, with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Belgium defeated Italy 2-0 in Rome during the opening match of the 2026/27 Nations League group stage.
- Italy have won four of the last seven meetings between the teams, but Belgium have won two of the last three when the September 2026 and November 2015 results are considered.
- Belgium have scored six goals in four Nations League matches; Italy have scored eight in the same number of games.
- Belgium’s Nations League matches have averaged 2.75 total goals, while Italy’s have averaged 3.25.
- Belgium have lost both matches against group leaders France but beaten Italy and Türkiye.
- Italy entered the international window second in Group A1, one point above Belgium, before facing France on Thursday.
- Jérémy Doku’s return significantly improves Belgium’s ability to attack isolated full-backs and generate shots from wide areas.
- Gianluca Mancini’s injury has weakened Italy’s centre-back depth, although Alessandro Bastoni and Giorgio Scalvini remain a strong first-choice pairing.
- Nicolò Zaniolo’s departure from the Italy camp removes one of the Azzurri’s physical attacking options for this fixture.
- Kevin De Bruyne and Dodi Lukebakio have each scored twice for Belgium in the current Nations League campaign, while Francesco Pio Esposito has scored twice for Italy.
- Both teams have scored in five of the last eight Belgium-Italy meetings.
- Belgium’s home victory could move them above Italy if Roberto Mancini’s team fails to beat France in the preceding fixture.
Conclusion
Belgium vs Italy is set up as one of the most compelling Nations League matches of the November window. Belgium need a home victory to put maximum pressure on Italy, while Mancini’s team know that a positive result in Brussels could secure a top-two finish depending on events elsewhere. The first meeting produced a disciplined Belgian win, but the return fixture should be more expansive because both teams have developed greater attacking cohesion since September. Home advantage, Doku’s availability and the absence of Italy’s defensive depth tilt the balance toward Van Bommel’s side.
Our primary prediction is a 3-1 Belgium victory. The 2.18 European odds on the home win represent the strongest full-time result selection, while over 2.5 goals and both teams to score offer logical support based on recent scoring patterns. More cautious bettors can consider Belgium or the draw at 1.33, whereas the correct-score market provides the highest-risk route for those anticipating an open contest. The final team news will be important, particularly Lukaku’s condition and any fresh knocks sustained in Thursday’s matches.
Belgium should have enough attacking variety to score multiple goals, although Italy’s young forwards are capable of making the contest uncomfortable. We expect the hosts to dominate the decisive moments, convert their territorial advantage and win 3-1 in Brussels. For additional selections across the weekend, visit our hot predictions, full-time prediction page, bet of the day and live football scores.
