Rudes vs Slaven Belupo: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Wednesday, 16 September 2026 by Steve
Rudeš vs Slaven Belupo Prediction
Croatia SuperSport HNL Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
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Friday night football in the Croatian capital brings together the bottom two sides of the early 2026/27 SuperSport HNL table, and yet this fixture carries far more weight than a simple scrap between strugglers. Rudeš, freshly promoted after winning the Croatian Second League title last season, welcome Slaven Belupo to Stadion Kranjčevićeva with both camps desperate to arrest miserable opening runs. The hosts sit ninth with just three points from six matches, while the visitors from Koprivnica are eighth on six points — and both clubs have a brand-new man in the dugout trying to impose his identity in real time. Matches between teams in this kind of form are exactly where sharp bettors look for value, and our daily football predictions for today flagged this one early as a classic "false favourite" spot.
Rudeš have found top-flight life brutally unforgiving. Their six league games so far have produced a 1-6 home humbling by Osijek, a 0-4 defeat at Dinamo Zagreb, a 4-1 home win over Lokomotiva that remains their only league victory, a 0-2 loss at Varaždin and a 0-4 home defeat to Hajduk Split. Nineteen goals conceded in six matches — an average of more than three per game — tells you everything about the scale of the defensive rebuild coach Alen Peternac must complete. A 3-2 Croatian Cup win away at Koprivnica in midweek offered a crumb of confidence, but the league is where Rudeš will be judged, and right now they are leaking goals against everyone, not just the big two.
Slaven Belupo's start has been almost as painful. The Pharmaceutists have beaten only Gorica (2-0) in the league, losing to Dinamo, Varaždin (0-3 at home), Istra 1961 and Osijek without scoring in three of those four defeats. What makes this trip to Zagreb fascinating is the timing: Slaven appointed Silvijo Čabraja as their new head coach at the end of August after parting company with Mario Gregurina, and the experienced 58-year-old is still in the very first weeks of his project. A new-coach bounce, a superior head-to-head record and far better squad depth all point one way. Our full-time prediction model, backed by the trends in our hot predictions section, lands firmly on an away win — and we are going even bolder with a 1-3 correct score. For more angles on the weekend card, check our tomorrow's football predictions hub.
Tactical Preview
Formation & Key Matchups
Rudeš 4-2-3-1
Alen Peternac has largely stuck to a 4-2-3-1 since taking over the Rudeš project, but the system has been undermined by an injury-hit, constantly rotated back line. Expect Lovre Rogić in goal behind a back four led by captain Vedran Celjak, with summer arrivals Marko Stolnik and Filip Taraba competing for the centre-back berths and Ante Sušak at left-back. The double pivot of Ivan Đorić and Portuguese playmaker Xavi is designed to screen the defence, but in practice the shield has been porous: Rudeš have conceded first in almost every league game this season. The creative burden falls on Noa Skoko, on loan from Hajduk Split and statistically Rudeš's best-rated player so far, and winger Lenny Ilečić, who already has a couple of assists. Loan striker Cherno Saho, signed from Rijeka, leads a forward line that has managed only six league goals.
Slaven Belupo 4-3-3
Silvijo Čabraja is a disciple of structured, front-foot football, and his Slaven Belupo are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 built around an experienced spine. Matija Jesenović takes the gloves, with Filip Kruselj and Dominik Kovačić providing height and aggression at centre-back — a direct answer to Rudeš's aerial vulnerability from set pieces. In midfield, the trio of Mihail Caimacov, Ljuban Crepulja and young Nigerian prospect Adeshina should give Slaven the control Rudeš can only dream of. Up front, Josip Mitrović and Igor Lepinjica will look to stretch the game wide, with Marko Dabro or Ivan Božić operating centrally. The headline team news is the return of Ivan Cvetko: the 20-year-old centre-back joined Slaven from Rudeš this summer and now faces his former employers with a point to prove.
Critical Vulnerability
The decisive zone will be the half-spaces in front of the Rudeš back four. Rudeš's double pivot has been dragged apart all season, leaving the full-back channels exposed — exactly where Slaven's wingers Mitrović and Lepinjica love to operate. With Rudeš averaging over three goals conceded per game and Slaven's new coach demanding aggressive width, the home side's structural weakness meets the visitors' clearest strength. Set pieces are a secondary concern for Rudeš: they have conceded repeatedly from corners and second balls, and Slaven's centre-back pairing is one of the tallest in the league.
Team News & Squad Status
Rudeš 🔴🔴🔴🟢🔴
- Defensive crisis: Rudeš have conceded 19 goals in six league games and kept zero clean sheets; captain Vedran Celjak is the only ever-present in a back line that has been reshuffled almost every week.
- Loan watch: Noa Skoko (Hajduk Split), Cherno Saho (Rijeka), Marko Zebić (Dinamo Zagreb), Saad El Haddad (Venezia) and Cheick Diabaté (Samsunspor) are all on loan and available, giving Peternac a large but unsettled squad.
- Key absentees: Duje Korač (sold to RFS in the summer) and Karlo Kamenar (departed to Cibalia) leave a experience void in the final third that Stefan Vukić and Josip Bralić have yet to fill.
- Boost: A 3-2 midweek Croatian Cup win at Koprivnica gave the bench minutes to the likes of Junior Fernandes and Kristijan Lovrić, both pushing for starts on Friday.
- Form guide (last 5, all comps): W-L-L-W-L — the two wins came against Lokomotiva (4-1) and in the cup, but the three league defeats produced a 2-10 goal line.
Slaven Belupo 🟢🔴🔴🔴🔴
- New era: Silvijo Čabraja took charge at the end of August 2026, replacing Mario Gregurina, and is hunting his first league win after taking over a side beaten in four of its six matches.
- Reunion narrative: Centre-back Ivan Cvetko joined from Rudeš in the summer and faces his old club, while Ante Bilobrk also swapped Zagreb for Koprivnica.
- Late-window arrivals: Japanese defender Itsuki Urata (from Bunyodkor), Icelandic midfielder Arnór Gauti Jónsson (from Breidablik) and centre-back Jon Mersinaj (signed in early September after leaving Osijek) add fresh legs and tactical options for Čabraja.
- Attack concerns: Slaven have scored just five league goals; Ilija Nestorovski, the veteran North Macedonian international, may be asked to add penalty-box presence from the bench.
- Form guide (last 5 league): L-W-L-L-L — but three of those defeats came against top-half sides (Dinamo, Varaždin, Osijek), and the win was a convincing 2-0 over Gorica.
Predicted Lineups
| Rudeš 4-2-3-1 | Slaven Belupo 4-3-3 |
|---|---|
| GK: Lovre Rogić | GK: Matija Jesenović |
| RB: Vedran Celjak (c) | RB: Filip Kruselj |
| CB: Marko Stolnik | CB: Dominik Kovačić |
| CB: Filip Taraba | CB: Ivan Cvetko |
| LB: Ante Sušak | LB: Leonard Žuta |
| CM: Ivan Đorić | CM: Mihail Caimacov |
| CM: Xavi | CM: Ljuban Crepulja |
| RW: Lenny Ilečić | CM: Adeshina |
| AM: Noa Skoko | RW: Josip Mitrović |
| LW: Jurica Poldrugač | LW: Igor Lepinjica |
| ST: Cherno Saho | ST: Marko Dabro |
Head-to-Head Record
History is firmly on Slaven Belupo's side. The two sides have met 19 times in all competitions since 2017, and the Koprivnica club have dominated the rivalry with eleven wins to Rudeš's three, alongside five draws. In the league alone, Slaven have won seven of the twelve meetings. Rudeš's only HNL victory in this fixture came in April 2024, a 1-0 home win, while Slaven took the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier that season. When the teams last met — a pre-season friendly in July 2025 — Slaven won 2-0, a result that underlined the gap in squad depth between the two organisations even before Rudeš's promotion.
What stands out in the head-to-head data is how rarely these games are open. Twelve of the nineteen meetings have produced two goals or fewer, and Rudeš have failed to score in nine of them. However, context matters: this Rudeš side is defensively the weakest version of the club in years, while Slaven arrive with a new coach who has publicly promised more attacking intent. Trends are made to be broken, and our BTTS (GG/NG) analysis hub currently leans toward a rare high-scoring chapter in this rivalry — one of the reasons we are backing a 1-3 scoreline rather than another tight, low-scoring affair.
Key Players Comparison
Rudeš: Noa Skoko vs Slaven Belupo: Mihail Caimacov
The midfield duel between Rudeš's on-loan creator Noa Skoko — the highest-rated Rudeš player in league play so far — and Slaven's tempo-setter Mihail Caimacov will decide who controls the game. Skoko has carried the creative load with assists and constant probing between the lines, but he has been forced to drop too deep to collect the ball because the Rudeš pivot is overrun so often. Caimacov, by contrast, plays in a functioning structure: with Crepulja beside him and Adeshina ahead, he can dictate rather than rescue. If Caimacov wins this battle, Slaven's wingers will feed on a steady supply into the channels all evening.
Rudeš: Cherno Saho vs Slaven Belupo: Josip Mitrović
Up front, Gambian loanee Cherno Saho is Rudeš's most dangerous outlet, combining physical presence with sharp movement, but he has been starved of service in a side averaging barely a goal per game. Slaven's Josip Mitrović offers a different profile — a wide forward who attacks the back post, cuts inside onto his stronger foot and draws fouls in dangerous areas. Against a Rudeš defence that concedes over three goals a game, Mitrović's efficiency per touch is exactly the weapon Slaven need to convert their territorial dominance into scoreboard pressure.
Individual quality across the two squads is closer than the table gap suggests, but availability and structure tip the balance. Rudeš's summer rebuild — sixteen new faces including loans from Dinamo, Hajduk, Rijeka, Samsunspor and Venezia — has produced talent without cohesion, and their standout performers are youngsters still adapting to the top flight. Slaven's core of Caimacov, Crepulja, Kovačić and Jesenović has played together far longer, and the late-window additions of Urata, Jónsson and Mersinaj give Čabraja the luxury of in-game adjustments Peternac simply does not have. For a deeper look at how squad continuity influences results, browse our Portugal vs Croatia preview and other international-era analyses.
The Managers
Alen Peternac (Rudeš)
Alen Peternac inherited a promoted squad that lost its two most productive attackers of last season — Duje Korač to RFS and Karlo Kamenar to Cibalia — and was then rebuilt almost entirely with loan players. His task is unenviable: keep a patched-together side competitive while instilling top-flight habits. So far the results have been harsh, but Peternac deserves some sympathy: a 4-1 win over Lokomotiva showed what this group can do when the game state suits them, and the midweek cup win at Koprivnica hinted at growing resilience.
The concern is tactical. Peternac's 4-2-3-1 leaves the full-backs exposed whenever the double pivot is pulled wide, and opponents have repeatedly punished the same weakness. Against Slaven, expect him to prioritise compactness over ambition, looking to hit Saho and Ilečić on the break. Whether he can organise a defence that has shipped nineteen goals in six games is the single biggest question of Rudeš's season — and Friday is a major examination.
Silvijo Čabraja (Slaven Belupo)
Silvijo Čabraja's appointment at the end of August 2026 was one of the summer's most intriguing HNL moves. The 58-year-old took over from Mario Gregurina with the club stuck in the bottom half, and his early training-ground work has focused on restoring confidence and defensive organisation without sacrificing attacking width — a hallmark of his previous jobs in Croatian football.
Čabraja's first matches have been transitional, but the underlying numbers have improved: Slaven are conceding fewer big chances per game than they did under Gregurina, and the new signings Mersinaj, Urata and Jónsson were all recruited to fit his proactive 4-3-3. A manager in his first away game in charge often prioritises control and a clean, professional performance — and against the league's leakiest defence, that approach should translate into goals. Managers love facing a team that concedes early and often; Čabraja will know Rudeš have conceded first in nearly every outing this term.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 2.05 (European/Decimal)
Slaven are simply the stronger, more settled side despite sitting only three points above Rudeš. They dominate the head-to-head, have a new-manager lift under Čabraja, and face a defence conceding 3.2 goals per game. At decimal odds of 2.05, the implied probability is under 49%, whereas our model prices an away win closer to 58-60% — a clear value edge. If you prefer insurance, the double chance X2 (draw or away win) is available around 1.30 and remains a cornerstone of cautious banker of the day slips.
Odds: 1.85
Rudeš matches have been goal fests: 80% of their last five games went over 2.5, with scores like 1-6, 4-1 and 0-4. Combine that with Slaven's need to attack under a new coach and this is one of the strongest over angles in the HNL round. The over/under predictions page has been profitable on HNL overs all season, and this fixture fits the profile perfectly.
Odds: 1.72
Slaven have kept just one league clean sheet, while Rudeš — for all their defensive misery — have scored in three of their last five in all competitions, including twice away at Koprivnica in the cup. Rudeš will create chances at home through Skoko and Saho; the question is whether they can outscore their own defensive errors. We expect both nets to bulge, in line with the trends tracked on our GG/NG predictions page.
Odds: 13.00
Our headline prediction. A 1-3 away win combines every strand of the analysis: Rudeš score at home but collapse defensively, Slaven's superior firepower and set-piece threat deliver three, and the historical pattern of Slaven controlling this fixture holds. Scorelines of 0-3 and 1-2 are the logical covers at 15.00 and 9.50 respectively — see the full range of options on our correct score tips page.
Odds: 3.40
For punters chasing a bigger price, Slaven to win by two or more goals rewards the same logic as the correct-score pick. Rudeš have lost four of six league games, three of them by two goals or more, and Slaven beat Gorica by exactly two in their only league win. A small-stakes play here complements the main singles nicely. Alternative longshot: Marko Dabro to score anytime at 2.75, with Rudeš conceding the first goal in nearly every match this season.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We project a 1-3 away victory. Rudeš will compete in spells — their home crowd at Kranjčevićeva and the energy of players like Skoko and Saho make a goal almost inevitable against a Slaven side that has kept only one clean sheet — but the structural gap is too wide. Slaven's midfield three should control possession, their wingers will isolate Rudeš's full-backs, and set-piece pressure against the league's weakest aerial defence is likely to yield at least one goal. Rudeš's path to points requires scoring first and defending deep, a combination they have managed precisely once this season.
The xG-style logic supports the scoreline: Rudeš are conceding chances at a rate consistent with roughly three goals against per match against organised attacks, while Slaven's shot quality has improved since Čabraja's arrival even if the scoreboard has yet to catch up. Expect Slaven to lead at half-time and manage the second half professionally, with Rudeš's consolation arriving late. For the confidence variant, the draw no bet market on Slaven at around 1.45 is the safest expression of the same view, and singles-focused punters can round out a slip via our single bet strategy guide.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Rudeš have conceded 19 goals in six league matches (3.2 per game) — the worst defensive record in the 2026/27 HNL.
- Slaven Belupo have won 11 of the 19 all-time meetings, including seven of twelve in the league, and have never lost heavily in this fixture.
- Both clubs changed managers recently: Peternac is rebuilding a promoted side, while Čabraja took over Slaven in late August and is unbeaten so far in his short tenure.
- Ivan Cvetko and Ante Bilobrk both joined Slaven from Rudeš this summer and face their former club on Friday.
- 80% of Rudeš's last five matches finished over 2.5 goals, and they have conceded the first goal in nearly every league outing this season.
- Slaven's late-window additions — Itsuki Urata, Arnór Gauti Jónsson and Jon Mersinaj — give the visitors far greater tactical depth than the hosts.
- Noa Skoko (Rudeš) and Mihail Caimacov (Slaven) are the two in-form midfielders; whoever controls zone 14 likely controls the match.
- Our model prices Slaven at 58-60% to win; bookmakers' decimal odds of around 2.05 imply less than 49%, creating clear value on the away side.
Conclusion
Rudeš vs Slaven Belupo is a relegation-six-pointer in name, but the profiles of the two teams point in very different directions. Rudeš are brave, young and chaotic — a side capable of a 4-1 win on their day but just as likely to ship four, as Hajduk and Osijek have already demonstrated this season. Slaven, meanwhile, are an established top-flight unit playing under an experienced new coach, with better depth, a dominant head-to-head record and every motivation to kick-start their campaign against the league's softest defence.
Our prediction is a 1-3 away win. The value ladder for bettors is clear: Slaven to win at 2.05 as the best pick, over 2.5 goals at 1.85, both teams to score at 1.72, and the 1-3 correct score at 13.00 for those chasing a bigger return. As always, keep stakes sensible and treat every pick as part of a long-term approach rather than a one-off — the same discipline we preach across our sure win predictions and bet of the day pages.
Friday's clash closes the HNL round, and by full-time we expect Čabraja to be celebrating his first league win at the Slaven helm while Peternac is left counting the cost of another defensive collapse. Whatever happens, expect goals, drama and plenty of talking points at Kranjčevićeva — and if you are building a weekend accumulator, this away win is one of the round's most reliable building blocks. Check back after the final whistle for our review, and keep following the Croatian football story through our wider coverage of the national team and its stars.