Notts County vs Grimsby: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Sunday, 20 September 2026 by Steve
Notts County vs Grimsby Town Prediction & Betting Tips
England - EFL Trophy Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Emile Acquah departs - Dundee Football Club - Official Website
Tuesday night brings a fascinating EFL Trophy Northern Group F clash to Meadow Lane as League One Notts County host League Two Grimsby Town in a fixture that carries more intrigue than your average group-stage cup tie. The Magpies, playing in the third tier for the first time since their memorable promotion via the 2026 League Two play-off final — where they dismantled Salford City 3-0 under the Wembley arch — are still searching for consistency back in League One, while the Mariners arrive on the banks of the Trent full of confidence after a 2-0 home win over Crawley Town on Saturday. With Nottingham Forest's under-21 side also in the group, both clubs know that a win here would put them in pole position to reach the knockout rounds, and you can find more fixtures like this in our daily football predictions for today and tomorrow's football predictions hubs.
The subplot that has captured the imagination of both sets of supporters is the return of Ryley Reynolds to Meadow Lane. The 21-year-old midfielder joined Grimsby on a season-long loan from Notts County on 14 August 2026 and, under EFL Trophy regulations, he is eligible to face his parent club — giving the travelling Mariners a useful source of inside knowledge about Martin Paterson's setup. For Notts, this competition represents a genuine opportunity: Paterson, who only last week signed a new contract tying him to the world's oldest professional football club until June 2029, has spoken about building a winning culture on all fronts, and he described the job as "the honour of my professional life" when committing his future. The Magpies were beaten 2-0 at Reading on Saturday, so a response at home is high on the agenda for a team that has drawn far too many games this season.
Grimsby, meanwhile, have quietly assembled one of the more interesting squads in League Two. David Artell added Edon Pruti, Josh Andrews, Joe Foulkes, Cian Doyle, Iwan Morgan and Sonny Finch in the summer, brought Andy Cook back to Blundell Park as the senior striker, and supplemented the group with no fewer than five loan signings including Hull City goalkeeper Harvey Cartwright and deadline-day arrivals Mark Shelton and Fin Cartwright. Their 2-0 victory over Crawley — sealed by a Charles Vernam strike and an Iwan Morgan penalty — was their biggest statement of the young season, and Artell will fancy his chances of springing a surprise against a Notts side that has struggled to convert performances into wins. Group-stage cup games between a division's-neighbours are notoriously difficult to price, but the layers make the hosts clear favourites, and our full reasoning — plus a 3-1 scoreline call — is laid out below.
Tactical Preview
Maldini Kacurri has joined Grimsby Town in a permanent transfer. : r/Gunners
Formation & Key Matchups
Notts County 4-3-3
Martin Paterson's side has been built on hard work, organisation and verticality rather than sterile possession — a hallmark the Northern Irishman carried with him from Burton Albion. In League One the Magpies have averaged just 45% possession but rank highly for second-half intensity, scoring the majority of their goals after the interval this season. Expect the back four of James Gibbons, Rod McDonald, Matthew Platt and Nick Tsaroulla to step into midfield aggressively, with Dean Campbell anchoring in front of them and the mobile front three of Maziar Kouhyar, Emile Acquah and Ollie Cooper pressing high. In a cup environment, Paterson may also rotate: the likes of Max Sanders, Darius Lipsiuc, Luka Smyth and deadline-week signing Daniel Kanu are all pushing for starts, and this competition has historically been where Paterson bloods new signings. Our Notts County vs Chesterfield preview earlier this season highlighted the same pattern — heavy squad rotation in knockout competitions.
Grimsby Town 4-2-3-1
David Artell sets his Mariners up in a compact 4-2-3-1 that transitions quickly into a 4-4-2 without the ball. The double pivot of captain Kieran Green and Faroe Islands international Géza Dávid Turi provides the platform, with Charles Vernam drifting inside from the left to combine with Andy Cook, who remains one of the most battle-hardened target men in the EFL at 35. Behind them, the summer central-defensive pairing of Cameron McJannet — who signed a new deal until 2028 — and Samuel Lavelle offers a blend of aggression and experience, while Albanian youth international Maldini Kacurri, signed from Arsenal in January, adds real recovery pace. The wide areas are where Grimsby will look to hurt Notts: new signing Sonny Finch has hit the ground running since arriving from South Shields, and his direct running against Tsaroulla could be the evening's most decisive duel.
Critical Vulnerability
Notts County's high defensive line has been their Achilles heel since stepping up to League One. The Magpies have conceded in every league game this season and shipped soft goals in transitions, particularly when the full-backs are caught ahead of the ball. Grimsby's entire game plan is built around early diagonals into Cook and knockdowns for Vernam and Finch breaking beyond — precisely the kind of chaos that has unsettled Paterson's back line. On the flip side, Grimsby's emergency goalkeeping situation means Harvey Cartwright is likely to be thrown straight back in after David Harrington's seven-day loan from Bolton expired on 19 September, and a young keeper behind a rotated defence is rarely a recipe for a clean sheet at a venue like Meadow Lane. That tension — both teams' strengths attacking the other's weakness — is exactly why we expect goals and why the over/under predictions angle matters so much here.
Team News & Squad Status
Notts County 🟢🟡🟡🟡🔴
- Goalkeeper Kelle Roos left the club by mutual consent on 2 September, leaving Martin Paterson with a reshuffled keeping department for the cup run.
- Midfielder Ryley Reynolds joined Grimsby Town on a season-long loan on 14 August and is eligible to feature against his parent club in this competition.
- Summer signings Rosaire Longelo (Salford City) and Daniel Kanu arrived on 1 and 31 August respectively and are in contention for first starts.
- Loanees Ollie Cooper (Swansea City), Ishe Samuels-Smith and Hindolo Mustapha are all expected to feature as Paterson rotates.
- Paterson signed a new contract until June 2029 this week, bringing stability after the 2-0 defeat at Reading on Saturday.
- No fresh injury worries were reported from the weekend, with the squad otherwise settled after ten permanent summer additions.
Grimsby Town 🟢🟢🟡🔴🟢
- David Harrington's emergency loan from Bolton Wanderers expired on 19 September, so Harvey Cartwright is set to return in goal.
- Andy Cook leads the line as the senior striker, with Iwan Morgan — on target from the spot against Crawley — pushing for a start.
- Deadline-day loan arrivals Mark Shelton (York City) and Fin Cartwright (Middlesbrough) add midfield options for Artell.
- Sonny Finch signed a three-year deal on 24 August and has added genuine width and goal threat on the right flank.
- Ryley Reynolds is available to face his parent club — a major talking point for the travelling supporters.
- Young trio Charlie Elliott, Elliot Smith and Henry Brown are out on loan and unavailable for selection.
Predicted Lineups
Oliver Cooper Common 68 OVR CAM - EA FC 26 - FUT.GG
| Notts County 4-3-3 | Grimsby Town 4-2-3-1 |
|---|---|
| GK: J. Belshaw | GK: Harvey Cartwright |
| RB: James Gibbons | RB: Joe Foulkes |
| CB: Rod McDonald | CB: Cameron McJannet |
| CB: Matthew Platt | CB: Samuel Lavelle |
| LB: Nick Tsaroulla | LB: Jayden Sweeney |
| CM: Dean Campbell | DM: Kieran Green (c) |
| CM: Max Sanders | DM: Géza Dávid Turi |
| CM: Ollie Cooper | AM: Charles Vernam |
| RW: Maziar Kouhyar | LW: Justin Amaluzor |
| ST: Emile Acquah | RW: Sonny Finch |
| LW: Luka Smyth | ST: Andy Cook |
Head-to-Head Record
“This Club Means Everything to Me” - Vernam Commits His Future to Town - Grimsby Town Football Club
These two historic clubs have met 16 times in competitive football and the rivalry is remarkably balanced, with Grimsby holding a narrow edge. The last meeting came in the 2025-26 season when both were pushing at the top end of League Two, and recent encounters have tended to be tight, physical affairs decided by a single goal or a moment of set-piece quality. Notts County's rise through the divisions in the Reedtz brothers' era has reinvigorated the fixture, and with both clubs now chasing knockout football in the EFL Trophy, meeting number 17 promises to be every bit as competitive as the previous sixteen. Fans of EFL matchups can also check our Salford vs Grimsby prediction and Stockport vs Stevenage preview for more English cup and league action.
What the raw numbers conceal is venue power: Notts County have made Meadow Lane a fortress since returning to the Football League, and Grimsby's travelling record in this competition has historically been patchy. The Mariners have never beaten Notts in a cup tie at Meadow Lane, and with a rotated visiting defence in front of a goalkeeper with limited minutes this season, Artell knows his side will need to be at their streetwise best to end that run. Historically, goals have flowed when these sides meet — the majority of their encounters have produced two or more goals — which again points us toward the goals markets and away from the draw predictions column, despite Notts' league campaign being heavy on stalemates.
Key Players Comparison
⚡ Emile Acquah (Notts County, ST): Signed from Dundee in July, the powerful centre-forward has led the line with real promise and gives the Magpies a physical focal point they lacked last season. His movement against makeshift defences is exactly the weapon Paterson will want on show in a cup tie. Acquah is our pick to open the scoring in this one.
🎯 Charles Vernam (Grimsby Town, AM): The former Lincoln winger opened the scoring in Saturday's 2-0 win over Crawley and remains Grimsby's most reliable source of goals from open play. Drifting between the lines, he will test Rod McDonald's mobility all evening — if Grimsby score, Vernam will almost certainly be involved.
🧠 Ollie Cooper (Notts County, CM): On loan from Swansea City, Cooper is the classiest passer on either pitch on Tuesday. In a rotated cup side, his ability to dictate tempo from the left of the midfield three could be the difference between a disjointed evening and a comfortable home win.
🛡️ Maldini Kacurri (Grimsby Town, CB): The Arsenal-schooled Albanian brings pace Grimsby have lacked in recent years. Keeping Acquah quiet for 90 minutes is a tall order, but if anyone in black and white can manage it, it is the youngster with the famous first name.
The individual battles tell the story of the match better than any team metric. Acquah against Kacurri and Lavelle is a classic EFL duel of raw power against organisation; Cooper against Green and Turi will decide who controls the middle third; and the returning Reynolds, desperate to impress against his parent club, adds a layer of personal motivation that rarely fails to produce intensity. Where Notts hold the edge is depth — ten permanent summer signings plus three loanees gives Paterson quality options from the bench such as Kanu, Campbell and Finneran, whereas Grimsby's reinforcements are younger and less proven. Over the course of a cup evening, that depth advantage typically tells, and it is a major reason our sure win predictions model leans firmly toward the hosts despite Grimsby's weekend win.
The Managers
Martin Paterson (Notts County)
Appointed in June 2025, Paterson achieved something no Notts County manager had managed in over two decades: promotion at Wembley. The 3-0 dismantling of Salford City in the 2026 League Two play-off final announced the former Burnley and Burton boss as the right man for the club's ambitious project, and the owners rewarded him last week with a new contract running to June 2029 — news he greeted by calling the role "the honour of my professional life."
Paterson's teams are famous for being extremely hard-working and well-organised, and his willingness to use the full squad in cup competitions means the EFL Trophy has become an important developmental tool. He will demand a reaction after the 2-0 reverse at Reading, and his record at Meadow Lane since taking charge suggests the Magpies are a different animal in front of their own supporters. Expect intensity, heavy pressing, and a bench used early and often.
David Artell (Grimsby Town)
The former Crewe Alexandra boss has now been in charge at Blundell Park for well over a hundred games and has rebuilt the Mariners in his image: combative, tactically flexible and dangerous on the counter. Artell was one of the busiest managers in the EFL this summer, overhauling his squad with six permanent signings and five loans, and the early signs — Saturday's 2-0 win over Crawley among them — suggest another promotion challenge is brewing in North East Lincolnshire.
Artell's cup record is more mixed; he tends to use the EFL Trophy to give minutes to loanees and fringe players, which explains the flurry of deadline-week recruitment. He will know that a win at Meadow Lane would energise the club's push in both league and cup, but he must also balance the physical load on veterans like Cook and Jamie Walker with a long season ahead. Artell versus Paterson pits two of the EFL's most meticulous coaches against each other — a fascinating chess match within the game.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 1.80
The hosts are clear favourites for good reason. Notts have lost just once at Meadow Lane in league action this term and, even with rotation, possess significantly more individual quality across the pitch than a Grimsby side travelling on a Tuesday night with a keeper short of match rhythm. The Magpies need a response after Saturday's defeat at Reading, and Paterson's sides traditionally deliver those at home. For punters who prefer a safety net, pairing this with the draw no bet predictions market trims risk while keeping a healthy return, and our banker of the day column frequently features home favourites of this profile.
Odds: 1.78
Everything about this fixture points to goals. Notts have conceded in every league game this season but score freely themselves; Grimsby's front four of Vernam, Finch, Amaluzor and Cook is arguably the most explosive in League Two; and both managers treat the EFL Trophy as an attack-minded exercise in squad building. H2H history confirms it — most recent meetings between these clubs have cleared the 2.5-goal line. Our over/under betting guide explains why cup group games between sides from different divisions are historically among the most reliable Over spots on the card, and this one fits the profile perfectly. You can compare similar angles in our main over/under predictions section.
Odds: 1.80
Neither of these defences keeps clean sheets with any regularity. Notts have yet to record a league clean sheet in 2026-27 and looked vulnerable in transitions at Reading, while Grimsby's rotated back line with a returning keeper in Cartwright is unlikely to survive 90 minutes against Acquah, Kouhyar and Cooper without conceding. Equally, Grimsby's direct style and Vernam's craft give them every chance of finding the net at the other end — they scored in the majority of their away fixtures last season and beat Crawley 2-0 on Saturday. The BTTS predictions page carries more analysis of both-teams-to-score trends, and this fixture profiles as a classic GG encounter.
Odds: 3.20
For those chasing bigger returns from the same logic, combining the two strongest angles makes sense. A 3-1, 3-0 or 2-1 home win are all live outcomes here, and the combined price of 3.20 offers excellent value against our modelled probability. This is the kind of structured single bet we advocate in our single bet strategy guide — one confident position, sized sensibly, rather than a speculative accumulator. If you do prefer multiples, our acca tips and accumulator betting guide show how to build round them responsibly.
Odds: 11.00
Our model's most likely scoreline is a 3-1 home win: Notts' attacking depth should produce three goals against a rotated Grimsby defence, while the Mariners' threat on the counter and from set pieces makes a consolation goal more likely than a clean sheet. Correct score is, by nature, a speculative market — treat it as a small-stakes sprinkle rather than a core position. The correct score tips hub breaks down how to approach these markets, and our big odds selections page lists other high-value plays for the week. New to decimal pricing? Our guide on understanding online betting odds covers everything you need before placing a stake.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We forecast a 3-1 home victory for Notts County. The Magpies' extra quality in the final third — Acquah's power, Kouhyar's directness and Cooper's creativity — should prove too much for a Grimsby side expected to ring the changes, particularly in a cup environment where Paterson's rotation rarely weakens his starting XI as much as the market assumes. Notts also have a powerful emotional catalyst this week: their head coach signed a new long-term contract, and the squad will be determined to bounce back from the Reading defeat in front of their own fans. Cup nights at Meadow Lane under the lights have a habit of bringing the best out of this group.
Grimsby will make a contest of it — they are too well coached and too experienced in Cook and Vernam to be swept aside — and we fully expect Vernam or Finch to get on the scoresheet against a Notts defence that has yet to keep a clean sheet this season. But the Mariners' goalkeeping situation, with Cartwright returning after Harrington's loan expired, plus the loss of midfield balance if Reynolds is ineligible or benched, tilts the expected goals heavily toward the hosts. The 3-1 scoreline reflects that balance of probabilities: three home goals from sustained pressure and set pieces, one away goal from a moment of Vernam magic. Follow the action live via our live scores page, and for more midweek EFL analysis browse the Hull vs Southampton preview and hot predictions for the week's standout fixtures.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Notts County have not kept a clean sheet in any of their league matches this season — BTTS has landed in the majority of their fixtures.
- The Magpies score most of their goals in the second half, suggesting live-betting value on goals after half-time.
- Grimsby have won seven of the 16 historical meetings — the Mariners hold a narrow H2H edge despite being the underdogs here.
- Ryley Reynolds joined Grimsby on loan from Notts County in August and is eligible to face his parent club in the EFL Trophy.
- Grimsby's goalkeeper situation is unsettled: David Harrington's emergency loan expired on 19 September, leaving Harvey Cartwright to return between the posts.
- Both managers heavily rotate in this competition, but Notts' summer recruitment of ten permanent signings gives them far greater depth.
- Martin Paterson signed a new contract until June 2029 this week and called the Notts job "the honour of my professional life."
- Notts were beaten 2-0 at Reading on Saturday — this is their first home game since that defeat, and a reaction is expected at Meadow Lane.
- Grimsby beat Crawley Town 2-0 on Saturday through Charles Vernam and an Iwan Morgan penalty, their most convincing display of the season.
- Most recent H2H meetings between these clubs have produced two or more goals, strengthening the Over 2.5 goals angle.
Conclusion
Notts County vs Grimsby Town is exactly the kind of EFL Trophy tie that reminds us why this competition retains its charm: two proud, historic clubs, a compelling loan-player subplot, contrasting managerial philosophies, and a genuine prize at stake in Northern Group F. The hosts start as worthy favourites at 1.80, and everything from their Wembley-hardened core to their ten-strong summer recruitment drive points toward a home win. Our final score prediction is Notts County 3-1 Grimsby Town — a scoreline that reflects the Magpies' attacking depth and Meadow Lane advantage while respecting Grimsby's proven ability to score against anyone.
For bettors, the strongest angles are the home win (1.80), Over 2.5 goals (1.78) and BTTS (1.80), with the combined Notts win & Over 2.5 at 3.20 offering the best risk-reward balance on the card. The 3-1 correct score at 11.00 is our speculative play of the night. Be sure to check our bet of the day and win either half markets for complementary selections, and keep an eye on team news an hour before kick-off, when Paterson and Artell name their XIs — any surprise starts for Acquah or Cook will only sharpen the case for goals.
Whatever happens under the Meadow Lane lights on Tuesday night, expect an open, committed contest between two of English football's most storied institutions. If our analysis proves correct, the Magpies will take a giant stride toward the knockout stages — and Grimsby will head back to Cleethorpes knowing they contributed to a classic. For the full slate of midweek fixtures across every competition, visit our best bets for today hub before placing any wagers, and enjoy the match responsibly.