Italy vs Belgium: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Wednesday, 23 September 2026 by Steve
Italy vs Belgium
UEFA Nations League – Group A1 Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Two of European football's heavyweight nations open their 2026/27 UEFA Nations League campaigns under the lights of the Stadio Olimpico on Friday night, and few fixtures in the opening Matchday of League A carry as much intrigue as Italy vs Belgium. The Azzurri and the Red Devils have been drawn together in a ferociously competitive Group A1 alongside world champions France and a dangerous Türkiye side, meaning there is simply no room for a slow start. Every point dropped in September could prove decisive when the group concludes in November, and with a place in the March 2027 quarter-finals at stake, both camps have treated this fixture as a priority from the moment the draw was made in Brussels back in February. For readers building a broader weekend portfolio, our daily football predictions for today page covers this game alongside every other major fixture across Europe.
Italy arrive at this match in the early days of a dramatic new era. The Azzurri's failure to reach the 2026 World Cup — sealed by a heartbreaking penalty shoot-out defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina in the European play-off final, where Alessandro Bastoni's first-half red card turned the tie — triggered a change at the very top. The FIGC moved decisively and brought Roberto Mancini back to the bench at the end of July on a contract running until 2030, and this clash with Belgium is the official launch of his second spell in charge. The interim summer window gave supporters a glimpse of the future: a young, experimental Italy beat both Luxembourg and Greece 1-0, with Pio Esposito scoring the winner in each game. Mancini must now fuse that youthful energy with his proven senior core of Gianluigi Donnarumma, Bastoni, Nicolò Barella, Sandro Tonali and Moise Kean. You can track how Italy's rebuild develops across this campaign via our Greece vs Italy match preview archive and live results centre.
Belgium, meanwhile, begin their own reset. Mark van Bommel — a former AC Milan midfielder who knows Italian football intimately — has replaced Rudi Garcia this summer and will take charge of his first competitive match in Rome. The Red Devils can draw confidence from their World Cup, where they dismantled the United States 4-1 in the Round of 16 before falling to Spain in a tight quarter-final. However, Van Bommel's first squad has been hit by significant absences: Thibaut Courtois has been left out by mutual agreement for this window, while Jérémy Doku and Amadou Onana are unavailable through injury. There is still world-class quality everywhere you look, from Kevin De Bruyne — now pulling strings for Napoli in Serie A — to Romelu Lukaku, Youri Tielemans and Charles De Ketelaere, and Van Bommel has notably called up six Serie A-based players who will feel right at home in Rome. For more context on how Belgium's golden generation evolved into this new chapter, check our Spain vs Belgium quarter-final preview from the summer.
Tactical Preview
Formation & Key Matchups
Italy 4-3-3
Mancini's second spell is expected to retain the possession-based identity of his first, but with more vertical urgency. The platform is a 4-3-3 built on Tonali's box-to-box dynamism and Barella's half-space surges, with Nicolò Fagioli — recalled for the first time since October 2024 — offering a calmer tempo-setting option alongside them. Full-backs Federico Dimarco's successor on the left and Giovanni Di Lorenzo on the right will provide width, allowing the front three to stay narrow and interlock around Kean's physical presence. The key tactical battle will be Italy's ability to pin Belgium's full-backs deep: if the wingers stretch the pitch and Tonali arrives late in the box, the Azzurri can replicate the controlled dominance they showed in the 1-0 win over Belgium in Brussels last November. For a deeper look at how modern systems like this have developed, read our feature on the evolution of football tactics.
Belgium 4-2-3-1
Van Bommel has inherited a squad built for transitions, and his first selection suggests a 4-2-3-1 designed to protect a reshuffled defence — Senne Lammens or Maarten Vandervoordt in goal behind Zeno Debast and Arthur Theate — while freeing De Bruyne between the lines. Tielemans and Romeo Lavia form a mobile double pivot, with De Ketelaere drifting in from the right and Leandro Trossard tucking in from the left to support Lukaku. Without Doku's one-v-one explosiveness, Belgium's wide threat becomes more cerebral than electric, which places enormous creative responsibility on De Bruyne's right foot. The visitors will look to absorb Italian pressure and strike through quick diagonals into the channels behind Italy's advancing full-backs — a tactic that worked well in spells of the World Cup.
Critical Vulnerability
Both sides carry one glaring soft spot. Belgium's is structural: a new-look centre-back pairing with an uncapped or barely capped goalkeeper behind it, facing a Rome crowd that will turn every Italian attack into a siege. Without Onana, their midfield screen is also less physically secure against late runners. Italy's vulnerability lies in the space their full-backs leave in transition — De Bruyne's diagonal passing into those channels is arguably the single most dangerous weapon on the pitch, and Bastoni's aggressive stepping out must be timed perfectly. Set pieces could tilt the balance too: Belgium miss Onana's aerial presence at both ends, while Italy have the height of Bastoni, Kean and the Esposito brothers to target from corners and free-kicks.
Team News & Squad Status
Italy 🟢🟢⚪🟢🔴
- Roberto Mancini's 34-man squad features nine maiden call-ups: Massimo Pessina, Daniele Ghilardi, Michael Kayode, Eddy Kouadio, Alessandro Romano, Issa Doumbia, Sebastiano Esposito, Antonio Vergara and Mohamed Ali Zoma.
- Injured/out: Federico Chiesa and Nicolò Leoni miss out through injury (both expected back in training in late September); Marco Palestra is omitted as he has yet to play this season.
- Notable recalls: Nicolò Fagioli and Nicolò Zaniolo return for the first time since October 2024; Rolando Mandragora earns a first call since March 2021.
- Captaincy: Gianluigi Donnarumma is expected to skipper the side from goal, with Bastoni restored at centre-back after his play-off red card.
- Hot prospect: Pio Esposito, scorer of both winners in June's friendlies, is pushing Moise Kean for a starting berth up front.
- The squad assembled at Coverciano on Monday 21 September, giving Mancini four full training days before the opener.
Belgium 🟢🟢🟢🔴🟡
- New era: Mark van Bommel names his first squad — a 28-man group — for a window that also includes France (home) and Türkiye (away).
- Goalkeeper situation: Thibaut Courtois is rested by agreement for this window; Lammens, Vandervoordt, Penders and De Busser are the four keepers selected.
- Injured: Jérémy Doku and Amadou Onana are out, removing Belgium's most explosive winger and a key physical presence in midfield.
- Serie A contingent: Koni De Winter and Diego Moreira (Milan), Arthur Theate (Bologna), Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli), Mandela Keita (Parma) and Charles De Ketelaere (Atalanta) all get the call.
- Experience up top: Lukaku, Openda, Trossard, Lukebakio and De Ketelaere give Van Bommel five proven senior attacking options, with Mika Godts and Matias Fernandez-Pardo as the youth gamble.
- Midfield engine room: Tielemans and Lavia are expected to anchor behind De Bruyne, with Hans Vanaken and Nicolas Raskin as alternatives.
Predicted Lineups
| Italy 4-3-3 | Belgium 4-2-3-1 |
|---|---|
| GK: Donnarumma (c) | GK: Vandervoordt |
| Def: Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, Udogie | Def: Castagne, Debast, Theate, De Cuyper |
| Mid: Barella, Tonali, Fagioli | Mid: Tielemans, Lavia |
| Fwd: Zaniolo, Kean, P. Esposito | AM/W: De Ketelaere, De Bruyne, Trossard |
| Impact sub: S. Esposito / Mandragora | Fwd: Lukaku — Openda ready off the bench |
Head-to-Head Record
History weighs heavily in Italy's favour. Across 26 meetings between these two nations, the Azzurri have dominated the rivalry, and they are unbeaten in the last five encounters. Italy have beaten Belgium at three consecutive major tournaments — 2-0 at Euro 2016, 2-1 at Euro 2020 on the way to lifting the trophy, and 2-1 in the 2021 Nations League third-place play-off — and most recently won 1-0 in Brussels on 15 November 2025, Sandro Tonali's 11th-minute strike separating the sides in a match where Italy's defensive structure smothered Belgium's attack. The Red Devils have managed just one victory in the last eight meetings, a record that explains why the home side are favourites with the bookmakers. Belgium's more recent results against elite opposition have been mixed, as analysed in our Croatia vs Belgium preview, and breaking this psychological barrier in Rome is Van Bommel's first great challenge.
Yet historical dominance can be a double-edged sword. This fixture arrives at a rare moment of simultaneous transition: Italy are rebuilding after missing the World Cup, while Belgium are adjusting to a new voice in the dugout without their talismanic goalkeeper. The last time the sides met, Tonali's early goal settled it — expect another tight, tactical affair rather than a repeat of the 4-1 Belgian win over the USA at the World Cup. With France and Türkiye also in Group A1, both teams know that a defeat here immediately hands the initiative to their group rivals. If you are comparing form lines from the summer tournament, our USA vs Belgium match preview offers useful context on how Van Bommel's inherited side performs under pressure.
Key Players Comparison
The individual battles will define this contest. In the middle of the park, Sandro Tonali against Youri Tielemans is a mouth-watering duel: Tonali's relentless pressing and late-arriving runs in the box have made him indispensable to Mancini, while Tielemans brings the range of passing and shooting that can unlock any low block. Behind them, watch the duel between Lukaku and Bastoni — two players who know each other's games intimately from Serie A, with Lukaku's power-testing Bastoni's anticipation. On the flanks, De Ketelaere's return to form at Atalanta gives Belgium a clever inside forward against a potentially inexperienced Italian full-back pairing. And then there is De Bruyne: if he is given time to turn and face forward, Italy will suffer. Mancini's entire game plan will revolve around denying him space between the lines. For daily insight into which stars are carrying their teams right now, our hot predictions page analyses the in-form players across Europe's top leagues every single day.
The Managers
Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Mancini's return to Coverciano is one of the most remarkable homecomings in international football. The man who ended Italy's 53-year wait for a European title at Euro 2020 — and who also guided the Azzurri to the Euro 2012 final — has signed until 2030 and been tasked with rebuilding a national identity shattered by consecutive World Cup failures. His first spell was defined by brave squad selection, tactical flexibility between a back four and back three, and an insistence on technical midfielders comfortable in possession. Expect more of the same, but with the urgency of a man who knows Italian football's patience has limits.
His bold 34-man selection for this window — nine debutants alongside returning veterans — signals that no hierarchy is safe. The Belgium game is a symbolic opener: Mancini lost his first match back in charge of nothing less than expectation, and a win against the Red Devils would instantly validate the FIGC's decision to bring him home.
Mark van Bommel (Belgium)
Van Bommel arrives with a reputation forged in club football: a title with PSV, promotion and survival battles in Germany, and most famously leading Royal Antwerp to their first Belgian league championship in 66 years in 2023. A Champions League winner as a player with Barcelona and Bayern Munich — and a Serie A champion with Milan in 2011-12 — he understands exactly what awaits him in Rome. His appointment after Rudi Garcia's departure signals Belgium's desire for discipline, defensive organisation and a clearer transition game.
His handling of the Courtois situation — reaching a mutual agreement to rest the Real Madrid goalkeeper for this window — showed a firm, pragmatic hand in his very first week. Handing debuts and recalls carefully while leaning on the experience of De Bruyne, Tielemans and Lukaku, Van Bommel's Belgium will be organised, physically committed and dangerous on the break. A positive result in Rome would be the perfect foundation for his reign.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 2.10
Italy are unbeaten in their last five against Belgium, have kept clean sheets in two of the last three meetings, and now enjoy home advantage with a fervent Olimpico crowd behind Mancini's new project. Belgium travel with a rookie goalkeeper situation, no Doku, no Onana and a coach taking his very first match. The 2.10 on offer for a home win represents genuine value — safer approaches can be found on our double chance prediction page, but the pure home win is our headline selection.
Odds: 9.50
Belgium possess too much quality — De Bruyne, Lukaku, De Ketelaere — to be shut out entirely, but Italy's superiority in structure and crowd support should see them edge a tight contest. A 2-1 home win covers Italy's typical winning margin in this fixture (2-1 has landed twice in the last five H2H meetings). Correct score markets carry higher variance, so stake small; our dedicated correct score tips page explains how to approach these markets systematically.
Odds: 1.95
Both teams enter with attacking talent outweighing their defensive stability: Italy are integrating new faces at the back while Belgium field an unfamiliar centre-back pairing and reserve goalkeeper. Italy's last two competitive home games produced 5 and 3 goals respectively, and Belgium's World Cup matches averaged over three goals per game. If you prefer a two-way market on the totals line, see our full over/under prediction analysis for this fixture.
Odds: 1.80
Belgium have scored in nine of their last eleven competitive away fixtures, and even without Doku they carry enough threat through De Bruyne's passing and Lukaku's presence to find the net. Italy, for all their structure, conceded in five of their eight World Cup qualifying matches. Both defences are in transition — a strong case for goals at both ends, in line with our regular GG/NG (both teams to score) selections.
Odds: 2.75
The big striker loves this fixture — he has scored in two of his last three appearances against Italy — and despite his move to Fenerbahçe he remains Belgium's most reliable penalty-box finisher. If Belgium score, the probability is high he is involved. This is a speculative single, best combined thoughtfully; our bet of the day section shows how we structure higher-odds plays.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We expect Italy to start fast. Mancini teams traditionally come out of the blocks quickly in Rome, and with Tonali and Barella swarming the midfield, the Azzurri should dominate the first half-hour. The opening goal feels like a matter of pressure and set-piece volume — Bastoni or Kean attacking a delivery is our most likely source. Belgium will grow into the game as De Bruyne finds space between the lines, and we project the equaliser arriving early in the second half against an Italian defence still gelling. From there, Mancini's bench — loaded with Esposito's energy and Zaniolo's directness — makes the difference, with a late winner sealing a 2-1 home victory. For alternative scoreline coverage and banker-style singles, visit our banker of the day picks.
The 2-1 scoreline fits the statistical profile of this rivalry: tight, emotionally charged, and typically decided by a single moment of quality. Italy's home record in the Nations League is formidable, and the psychological boost of Mancini's return should carry them through the difficult spells Belgium will inevitably create. Bettors looking to build this selection into a broader slip can combine it with other fixtures via our acca tips guide, which covers combination strategies for international breaks.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Italy are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Belgium (W4 D1), winning the most recent 1-0 in Brussels in November 2025.
- Belgium have won just one of the last eight H2H encounters — the Azzurri hold a 17-5-4 historical advantage across 26 meetings.
- Both coaches are in their first competitive window: Mancini returned to Italy in July 2026 on a contract until 2030; Van Bommel took over Belgium this summer.
- Italy have kept clean sheets in their last two matches (1-0 vs Luxembourg, 1-0 vs Greece) with an experimental summer squad.
- Belgium are without Thibaut Courtois (rested by agreement), Jérémy Doku and Amadou Onana (injured) for this fixture.
- Nine players have received maiden Italy call-ups under Mancini, including Pio Esposito's brother Sebastiano — while Pio himself scored both winners in June.
- Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in a goal in each of his last four appearances for Belgium in away fixtures.
- Group A1 is the tournament's group of death: Italy and Belgium must also face France (twice) and Türkiye (twice) — the reverse fixture is in Brussels on 15 November 2026.
- Italy have lost only one of their last nine Nations League home matches.
- Romelu Lukaku has scored in two of his last three games against Italy at club and international level.
Conclusion
Italy vs Belgium on Friday, 25 September 2026 is far more than a routine Nations League opener — it is the starting gun for two new eras. Mancini's Italy, rebuilt around a blend of proven winners and fearless debutants, host a Belgium side discovering its identity under Van Bommel without several cornerstone players. The historical record, home advantage and Belgium's disrupted preparation all point in one direction, but the Red Devils' quality on the counter-attack ensures this will be no procession.
Our betting strategy reflects a confident but measured approach: Italy to win at 2.10 as the best pick, the 2-1 correct score at 9.50 as the value play, with Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score adding support. The speculative Lukaku anytime goal offers an entertaining longshot for those who believe Belgium's experience shines through. Whatever your approach, remember to manage stakes sensibly — our guide to the most common football betting mistakes to avoid is essential reading before any international break.
Final verdict: Italy 2-1 Belgium. Expect an intense, tactical battle in Rome, decided late, with Mancini celebrating a dream start to his second spell in charge. For round two of this rivalry and every fixture across Matchdays 1 and 2 of the Nations League, keep our football predictions for tomorrow and sure win predictions pages bookmarked — and enjoy what promises to be a fascinating night under the Roman lights.
