Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Monday, 14 September 2026 by Steve
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje
UEFA Europa League 2026/27 Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Veton Tusha - NK Celje Forward - ESPN (UK)
The 2026/27 UEFA Europa League league phase kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026, and one of the most intriguing opening-night fixtures sees German giants Bayer Leverkusen welcome Slovenian champions NK Celje to the BayArena. For Leverkusen, this is the start of a new era: after a turbulent 2025/26 campaign that saw Erik ten Hag dismissed after just two league games and Kasper Hjulmand fail to last the season, former Girona coach Carles Martinez has arrived in the Rhineland to restore the intense, possession-based identity that made the Werkself so feared across Europe. The hosts are strong favourites in the football predictions today markets, and readers who follow our Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV preview will know how dangerous this squad can be when it clicks.
For Celje, this match is the reward for an extraordinary period in the club's history. The Grofje (The Counts) claimed their third Slovenian PrvaLiga title in 2025/26, securing the championship with a 2-0 away win at Mura in April 2026, which earned them a place in Champions League qualifying. They dispatched Ararat-Armenia 2-0 in the second round before falling narrowly to Slovan Bratislava (1-1 away, 1-2 home) in the third, dropping down into the Europa League league phase for the first time under the new format. Portuguese coach Vítor Campelos, appointed in March 2026 after Albert Riera's departure to Eintracht Frankfurt, has kept the machine humming and will relish testing his ideas against elite opposition. Matches of this type are exactly what our tactical edge betting analysis series was built for — a dominant possession side facing a compact, counter-attacking underdog.
The gap in resources is stark. Leverkusen spent roughly €157 million this summer on reinforcements including Guéla Doué (€30m from Strasbourg), Afonso Moreira (€29.5m from Lyon), Moussa Diaby's return from Al-Ittihad (€28m), Miguel Gutiérrez (€26m from Napoli) and Facundo Medina (€23m from Marseille), while offsetting sales of Piero Hincapié (€40m to Arsenal), Kerim Alajbegovic (€32m to Juventus) and Exequiel Palacios (€22.5m to Ipswich). Celje's entire squad market value would not cover one of those deals. Yet football is played on grass, not spreadsheets, and our full-time research — from reading betting odds correctly to avoiding common betting mistakes — suggests the visitors' organised structure will at least make Leverkusen earn their victory. Our prediction, however, is emphatic: a 4-1 home win, in line with the attacking profiles we analyse in our over/under prediction guides.
Tactical Preview
Blaz Kramer negocjował powrót do Ekstraklasy. Już wiemy, który klub go chciał - KanalSportowy.pl
Formation & Key Matchups
Bayer Leverkusen 4-3-3
Carles Martinez has installed a high-energy 4-3-3 in pre-season, blending Girona-style positional play with the vertical aggression German crowds demand. Mark Flekken anchors the side in goal, with Lucas Vázquez and new signing Miguel Gutiérrez overlapping from full-back. Facundo Medina and Edmond Tapsoba — who signed a contract extension in April 2026 — form a ball-playing central partnership comfortable stepping into midfield. In the engine room, Ezequiel Fernández sits as the lone pivot following Palacios's sale, with Malik Tillman and Aleix García ahead of him as dual number eights. The front three of Ibrahim Maza, Patrik Schick and Afonso Moreira offers pace, power and clinical finishing, with Victor Boniface, Nathan Tella, Martin Terrier, Moussa Diaby and teenage sensation Christian Kofane providing frightening depth. Tactics nerds will appreciate how Martinez's structure compares to the trends mapped in our evolution of football tactics feature — short build-up, aggressive rest-defence, and relentless width.
NK Celje 4-2-3-1
Vítor Campelos — who won 67% of his matches after taking over in March — has largely retained the pragmatic 4-2-3-1 blueprint that served Albert Riera so well. Žan-Luk Leban starts in goal behind a back line expected to feature Pijus Širvys, Artemijus Tutyškinas, Damjan Vuklišević or Łukasz Bejger, and Leonardo Koutris. Captain Mark Zabukovnik anchors the double pivot alongside Ivan Ćalušić, shielding a creative band of Mario Kvesić, Svit Sešlar — already on two league goals this season — and Benjamin Verbič, one of several smart free-transfer arrivals. Up front, Blaž Kramer, signed from Konyaspor, leads the line with support from Kosovo international Veton Tusha, who also has two league goals. Celje will concede possession, sit in a compact mid-block, and look to spring Verbič and Tusha into the channels on the break — a classic underdog template examined in our live betting analysis on pressing and xG, where we explain how to spot when a deep block is about to crack.
Critical Vulnerability
Celje's soft underbelly is defensive transition. They have conceded eight goals across their last five matches, including a alarming 4-1 defeat at newly promoted Brinje Grosuplje in late August, and their full-backs — Širvys and Koutris — are attack-minded players who leave space in behind. Against Leverkusen's rapid wingers and overlapping full-backs, that is close to suicidal. The hosts, for their part, can be vulnerable to balls in behind Vázquez's advanced positioning, which is exactly how Slovan Bratislava punished them... rather, punished Celje's compatriots — and it is the one route the Slovenians have to a goal. Expect Campelos to target that channel with direct passes to Kramer's chest and flick-ons for Tusha's runs. For a deeper look at how such mismatches shape markets, see our football betting odds guide and the Primorje vs Celje prediction, which tracks the champions' domestic form closely.
Team News & Squad Status
Bayer Leverkusen 🔥 W W W D W
- Out: Kennet Eichhorn (16-year-old midfield signing from Hertha BSC is sidelined indefinitely with a metabolic disorder — a cruel blow for one of Germany's brightest prospects).
- Rotation risk: With a Bundesliga fixture calendar to manage, Carles Martinez may rest veterans Lucas Vázquez and Patrik Schick either at kick-off or at half-time; Jarell Quansah, Loïc Badé, Victor Boniface and Martin Terrier are primed to step in.
- New faces in town: Guéla Doué, Afonso Moreira, Moussa Diaby, Miguel Gutiérrez and Facundo Medina are all pushing for starts after arriving for a combined €136.5m this summer.
- Departures to note: Piero Hincapié (Arsenal, €40m), Kerim Alajbegovic (Juventus, €32m), Exequiel Palacios (Ipswich, €22.5m) and Alejandro Grimaldo (Atlético Madrid, €22m) all left during the window.
- Form guide: Strong pre-season under Martinez with wins over Genk (4-0), Sevilla (2-1) and Newcastle (2-1); the Werkself are unbeaten at home in European competition since the spring of 2025.
NK Celje 📉 W D L W L
- Recent wobble: Celje have won just two of their last five matches (8 scored, 8 conceded), including a 4-1 league defeat at Brinje Grosuplje on 30 August and a 2-1 aggregate loss to Slovan Bratislava that ended their Champions League dream.
- Summer rebuild: Blaž Kramer (Konyaspor), Benjamin Verbič (Levadiakos), Žan Žužek (Gençlerbirliği), Žiga Frelih (Spartak Trnava) and Veton Tusha (Adelaide United) all arrived on free or minimal-fee deals — smart recruiting for a club of this size.
- Key exits: Nikita Iosifov (Sporting Gijón), Franko Kovačević (Ferencváros) and Juanjo Nieto (Castellón) moved on, trimming the squad's creative depth.
- Manager watch: Vítor Campelos (appointed March 2026 after Riera's move to Eintracht Frankfurt and Ivan Mayewski's brief interim spell) has a 67% win rate and has pledged to "compete, not just participate" in Europe.
- Top scorers: Veton Tusha (2) and Svit Sešlar (2) lead the early PrvaLiga scoring charts.
Predicted Lineups
Could Pep Guardiola be poised for another Bundesliga raid? Bayer Leverkusen could soon face a Manchester City bid for one of their Germany internationals | Goal.com Canada
| Bayer Leverkusen 4-3-3 | NK Celje 4-2-3-1 |
|---|---|
| Mark Flekken (GK) | Žan-Luk Leban (GK) |
| Lucas Vázquez (RB) | Pijus Širvys (RB) |
| Facundo Medina (CB) | Artemijus Tutyškinas (CB) |
| Edmond Tapsoba (CB) | Damjan Vuklišević (CB) |
| Miguel Gutiérrez (LB) | Leonardo Koutris (LB) |
| Ezequiel Fernández (DM) | Mark Zabukovnik (DM, C) |
| Malik Tillman (CM) | Ivan Ćalušić (DM) |
| Aleix García (CM) | Mario Kvesić (AM) |
| Ibrahim Maza (RW) | Svit Sešlar (AM) |
| Patrik Schick (ST) | Blaž Kramer (ST) |
| Afonso Moreira (LW) | Benjamin Verbič (AM) |
Head-to-Head Record
Moreira: Bayer 04 'a good place to grow as a player and as a person' | Bayer04.de
This is a genuine first: Bayer Leverkusen and NK Celje have never met in a competitive fixture in their combined 200+ years of history. The draw in Monaco on 28 August 2026 pitted the six-time Bundesliga champions against Slovenia's most successful club of the modern era, and the BayArena crowd will be witnessing history on Matchday 1. Leverkusen's pedigree in this competition is well established — they were Europa League finalists in 2024 and have reached the latter stages repeatedly this decade — while Celje are making their second appearance in a UEFA league-phase format after their 2024/25 Conference League run to the quarter-finals, where they beat teams of far greater stature before losing to Fiorentina. There is no historical data to lean on, which is precisely why our guide to pricing uncertainty and bookmaker odds strategy articles recommend weighing squad quality, coaching stability and home advantage above everything else in fixtures like this.
With no prior meetings, the meaningful "head-to-head" is each club's record against opposition from the other's country. Leverkusen have faced Slovenian sides sparingly but convincingly — German clubs collectively dominate this cross-border matchup, with Bayern, Dortmund and Leverkusen themselves holding strong winning records against PrvaLiga opposition in qualifying rounds over the past two decades. Celje's own European travels to Germany have been unkind: heavy defeats to Bundesliga opposition in past qualifiers underline the step up in tempo, physicality and tactical sophistication they now face. Our Bundesliga predictions and Slovenian football coverage both point the same way: German structure beats Balkan intensity more often than not, though the Balkan sides almost always land a punch. For bettors building multiples, this fixture sits comfortably alongside our 10 teams to win today and sure win predictions selections.
Key Players Comparison
Leverkusen ST · Anytime scorer @ 1.72
Leverkusen AM · Anytime scorer @ 2.40
Leverkusen LW · Anytime scorer @ 2.60
Celje FW · Anytime scorer @ 3.75
Celje AM · Anytime scorer @ 4.00
Celje ST · Anytime scorer @ 3.50
The headline duel is Patrik Schick against a Celje back line that shipped four goals to a promoted side two weeks ago. Schick remains one of Europe's most complete target men — elite in the air, technically clean, and deadly off cut-backs from the half-spaces, exactly the kind of service Maza and Moreira will supply. At 30, he is the senior statesman of Martinez's new project and scored freely in pre-season, including the winner against Newcastle. Behind him, Maza — the 20-year-old Algerian-German playmaker valued at over €20m — is the player scouts will be watching most closely; his ability to drift between lines is precisely what a rigid 4-2-3-1 struggles to track. For Celje, everything funnels through Svit Sešlar, the 24-year-old attacking midfielder who already has two goals this season and carries the creative burden vacated by Iosifov and Kovačević. Veton Tusha, signed from Adelaide United, provides the counter-attacking thrust and is the most likely source of a consolation goal — a scenario priced into our BTTS (GG/NG) analysis. Throw in Moussa Diaby's nostalgic return and Nathan Tella's X-factor from the bench, and the depth comparison borders on unfair; it is why our player rankings analysis places multiple Leverkusen men in Europe's top tier. Before placing any scorer bets, brush up with our live betting strategies to catch the best prices after the first 15 minutes.
The Managers
Carles Martinez (Bayer Leverkusen)
The 2025/26 season was supposed to be a transition; instead it became a trauma. Ten Hag lasted two league matches, Hjulmand steadied then sank the ship, and Leverkusen limped to sixth — their worst finish in years — missing the Champions League and resetting the club's entire footballing project. Into that void stepped Carles Martinez, the Spanish coach who earned his reputation at Girona with brave, possession-heavy football. Appointed in the summer of 2026, Martinez has preached "controlled intensity" — a high press married to patient circulation — and his pre-season results (7-0, 3-1, 4-0, 3-0 wins, with the only blemish a 2-1 loss to Nottingham Forest) suggest the message is landing.
Martinez's first competitive European night at the BayArena is a statement opportunity. His predecessor's cupped-ears celebration at the Westfalenstadion feels like a lifetime ago; the new boss wants his own identity forged quickly. Expect heavy rotation across the league phase — the new format's 36-team table rewards depth — but also a ruthless pursuit of goal difference against the group's minnows, because eight home fixtures make every goal count in January's ranking. His tactical fingerprints are already visible and mirror principles dissected in our tactical evolution feature.
Vítor Campelos (NK Celje)
Celje's rise has been one of European football's quiet miracles: league phase football in 2024/25, a Conference League quarter-final, a Slovenian Cup, and then a third league title in 2026 — all built on smart data-driven recruitment and clear tactical identity. The architect, Albert Riera, left for Eintracht Frankfurt in February 2026 (a path our Eintracht coverage has followed), and after Ivan Mayewski's short interim, Portuguese coach Vítor Campelos took the reins in March. He inherited a champion and did not break it: 67% of his matches won, 2.13 points per game, and a title sealed by April.
Campelos is a pragmatist with a gambler's instinct — comfortable ceding the ball (Celje average under 45% possession domestically) but devastating in transition. His summer was a masterclass in low-cost squad building: Kramer for free, Verbič for free, Tusha for free, Žužek for free. The Portuguese has spoken openly about using the Europa League as a "shop window" for his players, which cuts both ways — motivation is sky-high, but so is the temptation to chase individual highlight moments against elite defenders. How he balances caution and ambition at the BayArena will define Celje's campaign, and possibly his own career trajectory toward a bigger league.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 1.55 (European format)
The anchor of our banker of the day selections. Leverkusen at home against a side that lost 4-1 to a promoted Slovenian team last month should win comfortably, and Martinez's attack has scored three or more in nearly every pre-season outing. The combined price of 1.55 implies roughly a 65% chance; we assess the true probability closer to 72%, giving clear value. Pair it with analysis from our over/under prediction hub before locking in.
Odds: 2.05 (European format)
Our 4-1 prediction maps directly onto this line. Celje's defensive record against top-tier opposition is alarming — they conceded twice to Slovan Bratislava home and away — and Leverkusen's attacking depth means the goals should keep coming even after rotation in the second half. At odds of 2.05 you are being paid even money for what our model rates a 55% scenario. Handicap logic is covered in detail in our goal handicap guide and Asian handicap analysis.
Odds: 1.85 (European format)
Four of Celje's last five matches produced five or more total goals across both teams (8 scored, 8 conceded), and Leverkusen's front line is several classes above anything they have faced. A 4-1 scoreline delivers this bet on its own; even 3-1 or 4-0 cashes. This is the statistical spine of our prediction and aligns with the goals data we track in our BTTS markets guide and double chance strategy.
Odds: 1.72 (European format)
Schick scored in pre-season against Newcastle and Sevilla and is Martinez's undisputed penalty-box reference point. Against a centre-back pairing of Tutyškinas and Vuklišević — competent domestically, unproven at this level — his movement should generate 4+ shots. If he starts, 1.72 is a gift; if he is benched, pivot to Boniface at a similar price. Scorer markets reward preparation — study our set-piece and penalty insights for an extra edge, and cross-check prices via bookmaker odds update analysis.
Odds: 15.00 (European format)
Our headline prediction at a juicy 15/1. The logic: Leverkusen's attacking ceiling at home (4-0 vs Genk, 7-0 vs Baumberg in pre-season) plus Celje's demonstrated ability to nick a goal on the break — they scored in Bratislava and against Ararat — makes 4-1 the single most likely high-scoring outcome. Stake small, dream big. Correct-score methodology is broken down in our correct score tips section, and this fixture features prominently among our hot predictions for Matchday 1. For broader portfolio thinking, see our acca tips.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We project a 4-1 Leverkusen victory, and the pathway to that scoreline is straightforward to script. In the opening half-hour, Celje's compact 4-2-3-1 will hold — Campelos is too good a coach to allow an early rout, and Leverkusen sometimes need time to pick a lock. The first goal, most likely from a Maza through-ball or Gutiérrez cut-back finished by Schick, arrives between minutes 25 and 40. Once the seal breaks, expect two more before half-time or early in the second period as Celje's midfield legs tire: Tillman arriving late, Moreira cutting inside onto his right, and set-piece pressure from Medina and Tapsoba. Celje's consolation comes in the final quarter — a Verbič or Tusha break finished past Flekken — before Leverkusen's bench (Boniface, Diaby, Tella) supplies a fourth to cap the European homecoming Martinez craves. The 4-1 prediction reflects both the individual quality gap, quantified in markets tracked by our odds-tracking methodology, and the stylistic mismatch between possession machine and counter-puncher.
What would spoil the script? An early Celje goal would force Leverkusen into riskier patterns and could produce a nervy 2-1 rather than a rout; equally, heavy rotation from Martinez would temper the margin toward 3-0 or 3-1. But even in downside scenarios, the home win looks safe — which is why our full-time confidence sits with the Werkself across every market from full-time prediction to win either half. It is also worth monitoring team news an hour before kick-off in our live scores centre: if Schick is rested, downgrade the scorer bets but keep the team-total plays.
Key Insights & Statistics
Svit Sešlar se od Celja poslavlja s priznanjem, ki potrjuje njegovo sanjsko sezono - Novica - Nogomania
- First-ever meeting: Leverkusen and Celje have never crossed paths; the 28 August 2026 draw created this historic tie at the BayArena.
- New era in the Rhineland: Carles Martinez is Leverkusen's third permanent coach in under 18 months after the Ten Hag and Hjulmand episodes; he has won plaudits for pre-season wins over Sevilla (2-1) and Newcastle (2-1).
- €157m spending spree: Leverkusen rebuilt with Doué, Moreira, Diaby (returning), Gutiérrez and Medina, while recouping over €119m from sales headlined by Hincapié's €40m move to Arsenal.
- Slovenian champions: Celje sealed a third league title on 19 April 2026 with a 2-0 win at Mura, then beat Ararat-Armenia 2-0 in Champions League qualifying before falling 2-1 on aggregate to Slovan Bratislava.
- Campelos factor: Celje's Portuguese coach boasts a 67% win rate since March 2026 and rebuilt his attack almost entirely on free transfers (Kramer, Verbič, Tusha, Žužek, Frelih).
- Leaky Slovenians: Celje have conceded 8 goals in their last 5 games, including 4 in a single league match at Brinje Grosuplje — a worrying trend against Europe's elite.
- European pedigree gap: Leverkusen reached the Europa League final in 2024; Celje's best run was the 2024/25 Conference League quarter-finals under Albert Riera.
- Scorer markets: Veton Tusha and Svit Sešlar lead Celje with 2 league goals each; Schick and Moreira were Leverkusen's pre-season standout finishers.
- Absentee watch: 16-year-old prodigy Kennet Eichhorn is out indefinitely with a metabolic disorder — the only long-term casualty in Leverkusen's squad.
- Home fortress: Leverkusen are unbeaten at the BayArena in European competition across their recent continental campaigns, a trend supporting our 4-1 prediction.
Conclusion
Bayer Leverkusen vs NK Celje is a fixture that captures everything compelling about the new Europa League league phase: a fallen giant rebuilding under an exciting Spanish coach, against a fairy-tale champion from one of Europe's smallest leagues proving that smart recruitment and tactical clarity can close impossible-seeming gaps. Celje deserve immense respect for what they have built since 2023 — three league titles, a Conference League quarter-final, and now a return to continental league-phase football. Vítor Campelos will arrive in Leverkusen with a plan, a compact block, and dangerous counter-attacking weapons in Tusha, Verbič and Kramer, and his players will treat every minute at the BayArena as an audition for bigger stages.
Respect, however, is not the same as expectation. Leverkusen's summer investment, home dominance, and Martinez's attacking philosophy create a convergence of factors that Celje's resourcefulness simply cannot offset across 90 minutes. The visitors' recent defensive wobble — eight goals conceded in five matches, including four against a promoted side — is the single most predictive data point available, and it points toward a heavy defeat. Our model, our tactical read, and the European odds market all agree: the hosts win this match comfortably, with multiple goals very likely on both the team-total and game-total lines.
Final verdict: Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 NK Celje. Back the home win with over 2.5 goals as the anchor, add the -2.5 handicap for value, and take a small-stake flier on the correct score to mirror our prediction. Whatever you bet, do it responsibly, compare prices across bookmakers, and keep following our tomorrow's football predictions and betting blog for daily Europa League coverage throughout the 2026/27 season — from Matchday 1 in September all the way to the final at Frankfurt's Deutsche Bank Park in May 2027.
