Almagro vs Nueva Chicago: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Friday, 25 September 2026 by Steve
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago Prediction
Primera Nacional Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Almagro: Almagro sufrió una baja de importancia en el ataque
The 2026 Primera Nacional season has been a brutal grind for both of these Buenos Aires institutions, and when Almagro host Nueva Chicago at the Estadio Tres de Febrero on Sunday afternoon for Matchday 31, there will be far more than local pride at stake. The Tricolor and the Torito arrive locked together in the lower half of the table — Almagro sitting 14th and Nueva Chicago one place below them in 15th — with both squads desperate for points to pull clear of the relegation mire before the campaign enters its decisive stretch. This is the classic definition of a six-pointer in Argentine second-division football, and the tension surrounding the fixture has only been amplified by what has happened on the benches of both clubs over the past two weeks.
Almagro come into this contest in the middle of a worrying slide. Carlos Mayor's side have not won any of their last five league matches, scoring just twice in that run, and they were beaten 1-0 by Chacarita Juniors just four days ago before suffering a painful 2-1 home defeat to San Martín de San Juan the previous weekend. For a team built on defensive discipline and set-piece efficiency, the inability to convert possession into goals has become the defining story of their autumn. Fans heading to Villa Raffo this weekend can follow how this fixture fits into the wider round of action via our daily football predictions hub, where every Matchday 31 game across Argentina's second tier is covered in detail.
Nueva Chicago's situation is, if anything, even more volatile. The Mataderos club parted ways with head coach Luis García this week following a run of just one win in six, and the club moved quickly to install Germán Lanaro as his replacement — an appointment confirmed only days before this trip to José Ingenieros. Lanaro knows the club well, having already patrolled the Torito bench earlier in this chaotic 2026 campaign, but asking any manager to stabilise a side in mid-week and then deliver a result away at a direct rival is a monumental task. With both sets of supporters permitted to attend — the visitante popular will be packed with green and black — expect a fiery, nervous, tactical battle rather than a free-flowing spectacle. Everything about this fixture points toward a tight, low-scoring stalemate, and that is exactly where our prediction lands.
Tactical Preview
Nueva Chicago: “En Chicago hay que poner huevos y tirarse de cabeza”
Formation & Key Matchups
Almagro 4-2-3-1
Carlos Mayor, in his fourth spell in charge of the Tricolor, is a pragmatist to the core, and his Almagro side for the 2026/27 cycle has been built around a compact 4-2-3-1. Emiliano González in goal is protected by a settled back four of Gonzalo Asís, Matías Cortave, Julián Vitale and Enzo Silcan, with the double pivot of Julián Marchioni and Juan Fernández Pinto tasked with screening the space in front of the defence. Ahead of them, the creative burden falls on Andrés Chávez, Franco Bustamante and Nicolás Tolosa, who look to feed focal striker Mateo Benegas — the club's top scorer this season and the man around whom every attacking move is constructed. The problem for Mayor is that this structure, so solid at home for long stretches of the year, has stopped producing goals: Almagro average under 0.85 goals per game in the league, and their chance creation from open play has dried up almost entirely in recent weeks.
Nueva Chicago 4-3-3
Nueva Chicago, under their new-old coach Germán Lanaro, are expected to retain the 4-3-3 shape that has defined their 2026/27 squad: Facundo Masuero in goal, a back line of Matías Vera, Emiliano Méndez, Gonzalo Paz and Diego Arroyo, and a hard-working midfield trio of Gabriel Vega, Rodrigo Rámírez and Evelio Cardozo. The front three of Thiago Ocampo, Matías Romero and Lucas Ambrogio is charged with pressing high and attacking the channels, with Sebastián Cocimano — the Torito's leading marksman — providing an alternative focal point off the bench or from the start if Lanaro wants more penalty-box presence. Nueva Chicago's numbers are eerily similar to their hosts': under a goal scored per game, nine clean sheets on the season, and a remarkable tendency to be involved in goalless or single-goal contests. Their 1-1 draw with Temperley last time out, salvaged late in improbable fashion, summed up a team that competes ferociously but lacks a clinical edge.
Critical Vulnerability
The critical vulnerability in this match lies in the final third — on both sides. Almagro's build-up through Marchioni and Fernández Pinto is patient but painfully slow, and they have failed to score in eight league matches this season, while Nueva Chicago have also drawn a blank eight times and create almost exclusively from transitions and Thiago Ocampo's deliveries. Neither defence is spectacular, but both are well organised, both goalkeepers are in decent form, and neither attack is currently capable of sustaining pressure for 90 minutes. Add the emotional fatigue of Almagro's back-to-back defeats and Nueva Chicago's mid-week managerial upheaval, and the most likely scenario is two teams cancelling each other out in a midfield stalemate, with set pieces offering the only realistic route to a breakthrough — set pieces that both defences have largely defended well all year.
Team News & Squad Status
Almagro 🔴
- Mateo Benegas is available again after serving a one-match suspension and leads the line — he remains the Tricolor's top scorer in the 2026/27 campaign.
- Carlos Mayor has no fresh injury concerns from the 1-0 defeat to Chacarita, but confidence in the dressing room is brittle after five winless matches.
- Gonzalo Asís, the team's leading assist provider from right-back, is fit and will be vital for width against Nueva Chicago's compact block.
- Attacking reinforcements such as Oscar Belinetz, signed ahead of the season from Quilmes, offer Mayor alternatives off the bench if the Tricolor chase the game late.
- Home form has been the one positive: the Tres de Febrero remains a difficult venue, with Almagro conceding barely a goal per game in front of their own fans.
Nueva Chicago 🟡
- Germán Lanaro takes charge for the first time since being re-appointed this week, replacing Luis García after a poor run of results.
- Sebastián Cocimano, the Torito's top goalscorer, is pushing for a starting role as Lanaro looks to inject urgency into a misfiring attack.
- Goalkeeper Facundo Masuero has been one of the team's few consistent performers and kept the score respectable in the 1-0 loss at Deportivo Maipú.
- Midfield anchor Gabriel Vega and playmaker Thiago Ocampo are expected to start, with Ocampo the team's creative hub on set pieces and transitions.
- The visitors will be backed by a large travelling contingent in the away end, with both partialidades confirmed for this fixture — a rare boost for a side that has struggled on the road.
Predicted Lineups
| Almagro 4-2-3-1 | Nueva Chicago 4-3-3 |
|---|---|
| Emiliano González (GK) | Facundo Masuero (GK) |
| Gonzalo Asís (RB) | Matías Vera (RB) |
| Matías Cortave (CB) | Emiliano Méndez (CB) |
| Julián Vitale (CB) | Gonzalo Paz (CB) |
| Enzo Silcan (LB) | Diego Arroyo (LB) |
| Julián Marchioni (DM) | Gabriel Vega (CM) |
| Juan Fernández Pinto (DM) | Rodrigo Rámírez (CM) |
| Andrés Chávez (AM) | Evelio Cardozo (CM) |
| Franco Bustamante (AM) | Thiago Ocampo (RW) |
| Nicolás Tolosa (AM) | Lucas Ambrogio (LW) |
| Mateo Benegas (ST) | Matías Romero (ST) |
Head-to-Head Record
This is one of the most evenly matched rivalries in the Primera Nacional, and the historical ledger proves it. Across 22 league meetings between these two clubs, the ledger reads almost perfectly balanced, with Almagro holding a narrow edge in victories and a remarkable number of the encounters ending all square. The first meeting of the 2026 season came back in May at the Estadio República de Mataderos, where Almagro won 2-1 on Nueva Chicago's own patch — a result that ended a run of three consecutive wins for the Torito in this fixture and gave Carlos Mayor's men a vital away triumph during the first half of the campaign. Readers who followed that reverse fixture can revisit our full Nueva Chicago vs Almagro preview from Matchday 13 to see how the prediction played out that afternoon in Mataderos.
Perhaps the most instructive trend for bettors is how tight these games tend to be. Nearly a third of all meetings between Almagro and Nueva Chicago have finished level, and the majority of the remaining results were decided by a single goal. Neither side has ever really dominated the other for long stretches; instead, this fixture reliably produces cagey, tactical chess matches where the first goal — if it comes at all — effectively decides the contest. Recent history reinforces the pattern: of the last six meetings, only one has featured more than two goals, and both of the most recent clashes at the Tres de Febrero finished with clean sheets intact. With both attacks currently misfiring and both defences organised, the draw trend in this rivalry looks more relevant than ever, and it underpins our prediction of a goalless afternoon in José Ingenieros.
Key Players Comparison
Mateo Benegas — Almagro
The Tricolor's attacking reference point and leading scorer, Benegas is the one player capable of manufacturing a goal out of nothing. His return from a one-match ban is the single biggest team-news item of the week for Mayor, and Nueva Chicago's centre-backs Méndez and Paz will need to be at their best to deny him service in the box.
Thiago Ocampo — Nueva Chicago
The Torito's creative engine and top assist provider, Ocampo operates from the right of the front three and delivers the set pieces from which Nueva Chicago generate most of their goals. If the visitors are to steal a result on the road, the Lanaro project begins with getting Ocampo on the ball in dangerous areas.
The individual battle worth circling is Benegas against the Nueva Chicago centre-back pairing, with the Argentine striker's physicality and penalty-box movement tested against one of the more underrated defensive duos in the division. At the other end, the duel between Ocampo and Almagro left-back Enzo Silcan will shape how much transition threat the visitors can muster — and transitions are precisely where the Torito's limited attacking threat lives. Do not overlook the goalkeepers either: Emiliano González and Facundo Masuero have combined for a strong share of clean sheets this season, and in a fixture this tight, one moment of goalkeeping brilliance — or one error — is likely to be the difference between a 0-0 and a 1-0. For a deeper look at how goalkeepers shape low-scoring contests like this one, see our piece on what true shot-stopping class looks like.
The Managers
Carlos Mayor
Carlos Mayor is in his fourth spell as Almagro head coach, a remarkable testament to both his bond with the club and the instability that defines Argentine second-tier management. Appointed at the end of April 2026 after Gabriel Gómez departed following a defeat to Deportivo Maipú, the 60-year-old took over a side drifting toward the relegation zone and immediately stabilised it with the organised, defensively-minded football that is his trademark.
Mayor's history with the Tricolor stretches back to 2013, and he remains the man who orchestrated the club's famous Copa Argentina penalty shootout win over Boca Juniors in 2019. The challenge now is different: with Almagro winless in five and scoring barely a goal every other game, Mayor must find a way to restore attacking confidence without compromising the structure that keeps his team competitive. Against Nueva Chicago he will demand patience, discipline and a clean sheet first — everything else flows from that.
Germán Lanaro
Germán Lanaro's appointment this week makes him the latest manager to try to tame one of the most demanding benches in the Primera Nacional. The former defender knows Nueva Chicago intimately, having already coached the Torito earlier in the 2026 season before departing in August — and the club's decision to turn back to him after Luis García's exit speaks volumes about both his relationship with the squad and the shortage of alternatives mid-campaign.
Lanaro's task is unenviable: he inherits a team that has won just once in six, that struggles to score, and that must travel to a direct rival within days of his arrival. His priority will be emotional as much as tactical — restoring belief, simplifying the game plan, and leaning on the experienced spine of Masuero, Vega and Ocampo to guide the younger legs around them. A point away at the Tres de Febrero in his first match back would represent a genuinely useful start, and expect Lanaro to set his side up conservatively with exactly that target in mind.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 1.50
This is the safest angle on the entire Matchday 31 card. Almagro and Nueva Chicago are two of the lowest-scoring sides in the division, combining for a large majority of matches under the 2.5-goal line this season, and both have failed to score in eight league games apiece. Neither attack is functioning, both defences are organised, and the H2H history is dominated by tight, low-scoring affairs. For a full methodology on betting totals, check our over/under predictions page, which explains how we price these markets.
Odds: 2.85
Seven of the last 22 meetings between these clubs finished level, and the conditions for number eight are perfect: two out-of-form teams, two limited attacks, a new manager likely to prioritise not losing, and a home side whose confidence is shot. At odds of 2.85 the draw is materially overpriced relative to its true probability, which we estimate closer to 38–40%. If you prefer a safer wrapper on the same thesis, the draw no bet market and the double chance offer alternative routes.
Odds: 1.62
Both teams to score has landed in only a minority of matches involving either side this season. Almagro have kept seven clean sheets and Nueva Chicago nine, and each side has been shut out eight times — remarkably mirrored profiles. With Benegas short of match rhythm after suspension and the Torito's away attack the weakest facet of their game, at least one blank feels highly probable. Our GG/NG predictions hub covers this market across all of this weekend's fixtures.
Odds: 6.50
Our headline prediction. Every strand of analysis — scoring averages below a goal per game, mirrored defensive records, the fixture's draw-heavy H2H, two managers who would privately take a point before kickoff — converges on the goalless draw as the single most likely outcome. A 1-0 either way is the live alternative, but 0-0 at 6.50 offers clear value. You can find more high-odds scoreline ideas in our correct score tips section, and our dedicated draw predictions page explains why stalemates like this one are systematically undervalued by casual bettors.
Odds: 4.33
For bettors chasing a bigger price on the same thesis, the half-time/full-time draw combination is the natural speculative play. Neither side starts games quickly — a large share of their matches are 0-0 at the interval — and with a new manager likely to preach caution, a scoreless first half is close to a coin flip. Pairing it with a second-half stalemate produces a generous 4.33 for what the data says is a live outcome. Speculative plays should always be staked small; treat this as a garnish on the main-course under and draw positions rather than a standalone bet.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We predict a 0-0 draw, and we make no apology for backing the most unglamorous scoreline on the board — because every piece of evidence demands it. Start with the baseline numbers: Almagro average 0.84 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per league match; Nueva Chicago average 0.94 scored and 0.89 conceded. Those are profiles of two teams that neither create nor concede freely. Layer on the current form — Almagro winless in five with two goals in that span, Nueva Chicago winless away with a mid-week managerial change — and the expected goals environment for this match is among the lowest on the entire weekend's card across world football.
The tactical picture reinforces it. Mayor's Almagro will not open up at home against a direct rival while stuck in a rut; Lanaro's first-day Nueva Chicago will not throw caution to the wind at a hostile ground with a new voice on the bench. Expect long spells of midfield attrition, fouls breaking up rhythm, set pieces coming to nothing against two well-drilled back lines, and two benches that will ultimately accept a point apiece. The most likely deviation is a single set-piece or dead-ball goal settling it 1-0 either way — which is why Under 2.5 goals and BTTS No are our supporting positions — but the modal outcome, and our official prediction, is 0-0. For a stable, lower-variance option built on games like this, our banker of the day selections follow the same data-first logic.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Almagro are winless in their last five Primera Nacional matches, scoring only twice across that run, and lost 1-0 to Chacarita Juniors last time out — a fixture we previewed in our Chacarita vs Almagro preview.
- Nueva Chicago have won just once in six, drawing 1-1 with Temperley at Mataderos in their most recent outing and falling 1-0 at Deportivo Maipú before that.
- The last 22 H2H meetings: 9 Almagro wins, 6 Nueva Chicago wins, 7 draws — and Almagro won the reverse fixture 2-1 in May 2026.
- Both teams have failed to score in exactly eight league matches this season; both rank among the division's bottom six for goals scored.
- Almagro have kept 7 clean sheets and Nueva Chicago 9 — defensive records far stronger than their attacking ones.
- Mateo Benegas returns from a one-match suspension as Almagro's top scorer; Sebastián Cocimano leads Nueva Chicago's scoring charts.
- Both clubs changed managers during the season — Carlos Mayor took over Almagro in late April, while Germán Lanaro was re-appointed by Nueva Chicago only days before this match.
- Both sets of supporters will be present at the Estadio Tres de Febrero, with the away popular confirmed — an unusually intense atmosphere for a bottom-half clash.
- Nueva Chicago's previous trip to the capital region this season is covered in our San Martín SJ vs Nueva Chicago preview, while their home form was analysed ahead of the Nueva Chicago vs Temperley clash.
- Almagro's remaining season outlook, including their upcoming home fixture against Atlético Rafaela, will define whether Mayor's fourth spell ends in safety or a relegation fight.
Conclusion
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago is a fixture sculpted entirely by context: two proud Buenos Aires clubs stuck in the lower half of the Primera Nacional table, both short on goals, both short on confidence, and both managed by men who understand that in this league survival is built on clean sheets rather than spectacle. The Tricolor's winless run and the Torito's mid-week coaching change have sucked most of the attacking ambition out of what was never likely to be an open game to begin with, and the historical record between these sides — seven draws in 22 meetings, most of the rest settled by a single goal — completes a picture that bettors should read clearly.
Our prediction is a 0-0 draw, supported by the under 2.5 goals market, the BTTS No position, and a value play on the draw itself, with the HT/FT draw/draw combination offering a higher-odds speculative alternative. The most probable deviation is a 1-0 home win should Benegas rediscover his scoring touch on his return, but even that scenario keeps every one of our low-scoring positions alive. Whatever happens, expect a tense, niggly, emotionally charged afternoon in José Ingenieros where the first goal — if one ever arrives — would feel like a title-decider.
As always, stake sensibly and treat predictions as informed opinion rather than certainty; Argentine second-division football is gloriously unpredictable at the best of times, and this chaotic 2026 season — which has already devoured dozens of managerial careers across the division — more than most. For more analysed picks from Argentina and beyond this weekend, browse our hot predictions page, and good luck with your bets.
