Newells Old Boys vs Lanus: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Thursday, 01 October 2026 by Steve
Newell's Old Boys vs Lanús
Argentina - Liga Profesional Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Lanús vs Newell's Old Boys Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 17 Mar 2026
On Saturday evening the Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa becomes the epicentre of Argentine football as Newell's Old Boys host Lanús in a Liga Profesional Clausura Round 11 fixture with far more at stake than the standings alone suggest. The last time these two sides met, on 17 March 2026 in the Apertura, Lanús dismantled Newell's 5-0 in Buenos Aires province — a result that still stings in Rosario. Frank Kudelka's men have built the entire second half of their season around defensive redemption, and nothing would symbolise that rebuild better than shutting out the Granate in front of their own supporters. Mid-table neighbours in the Clausura standings (Newell's 8th, Lanús 7th), both clubs are desperate for points to push into the upper half before the final third of the season.
Newell's arrive with one of the most remarkable defensive streaks in the league: they are unbeaten in their last nine home league matches and have gone 14 of their last 16 Liga Profesional games without defeat. Four of their last five fixtures have finished with under 2.5 goals, including a 0-0 draw away to Estudiantes and 1-1 stalemates against Vélez Sarsfield and Rosario Central. Their recent run reads W-D-D-D-W, built on structure, discipline and set-piece efficiency rather than flair. Kudelka's summer surgery — bringing in Lautaro Giannetti and Franco Escobar for the back line plus Alan Soñora and Lucas Gómez in midfield — has transformed a defence that leaked goals for fun in the first half of 2026 into one of the tightest units in the competition. If you enjoy low-scoring tactical battles, our over/under prediction page has more angles like this one.
Lanús, meanwhile, arrive at the Bielsa with a contradictory profile. Mauricio Pellegrino's side, fresh from their 2025 Copa Sudamericana triumph and a busy 2026 that included the Recopa and Copa Libertadores, have won three of their last four league matches — but their away record remains a serious concern. The Granate have lost 13 of their last 20 road trips and have won only once in their last twelve visits to Newell's in the league. Add the international-duty absences of José Canale and Matías Sepúlveda and injuries to Felipe Peña Biafore, Ramiro Carrera and Luciano Romero, and the visitors look significantly weakened. Everything points to a tense, tactical, low-scoring chess match — and that is exactly how our prediction models see it playing out, with a 0-0 draw the most likely single outcome.
Tactical Preview
Lanús aplastó a Newells por el Torneo Apertura y le dejó en zona de descenso - Diario Panorama Movil
Formation & Key Matchups
Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
Frank Kudelka has settled on a compact 4-2-3-1 that prioritises rest defence above everything else. Luca Regiardo anchors the double pivot alongside Rodrigo Herrera, screening a back four of Martín Ortega, Lautaro Giannetti, Lucas Carrizo and Jerónimo Russo. In possession Newell's build patiently through the thirds, but their real weapon is the transition: Santiago Solari drifting between the lines to find Matías Cóccaro, with Walter Mazzantti and Facundo Guch providing width. At home, Newell's average under a goal conceded per game since the Clausura restart, and their expected-goals-against figures are among the best in Argentina. Readers who like digging into pressing data and expected goals can explore our advanced live betting analysis with xG and pressing metrics for a deeper look at how these numbers translate into betting value.
Lanús 4-2-3-1
Mauricio Pellegrino mirrors the shape with his own 4-2-3-1: Nahuel Losada in goal, a back line of Tomás Guidara, Carlos Izquierdoz, Ronaldo Dejesús and Sasha Marcich, and a midfield rebuilt around Agustín Cardozo with Franco Watson or Agustín Medina deputising for the injured Felipe Peña Biafore. With Sepúlveda and Canale away on international duty, the creative burden falls on veteran Eduardo Salvio and Paraguayan striker Allan Wlk, the club's marquee 1.74 million euro signing from Olimpia, who leads the line with Gonzalo Lobos and Lucas Besozzi supporting. Lanús prefer to cede possession and strike on the counter — a plan that travels poorly when the opposition refuses to commit numbers forward, which is precisely Newell's modus operandi at home.
Critical Vulnerability
Lanús' critical vulnerability is their own penalty area away from home: they have kept only a handful of clean sheets on the road in 2026 and concede the bulk of their goals in the second halves of away matches. But the more decisive vulnerability runs the other way — Newell's chronic lack of cutting edge. Kudelka's side score barely a goal a game, have failed to score in several home fixtures, and create among the fewest big chances per match in the division. Two low-block, transition-shy teams meeting in a grudge match is a recipe for caution, and our guide to modern football metrics explains why goal expectancy models converge on a very low total here.
Team News & Squad Status
Newell's Old Boys 🟢🟢🟡🟡🟢
- Franco Escobar (defender) is ruled out with injury — a blow to the rebuilt back line.
- Mateo García (winger) is sidelined with an injury picked up after his arrival from Atlas.
- Marcelo Esponda, Alejo Montero and Nicolás Goitea are also unavailable through injury.
- Santiago Salcedo Zárate remains a long-term absentee with a tibia and fibula fracture.
- Alan Soñora (signed from Cerro Porteño) and Lucas Gómez (loaned from Argentinos Juniors) are pushing for starts in midfield.
- Ignacio Ramírez, the club's top scorer, is a key option off the bench should Kudelka chase a late winner.
Lanús 🟢🔴🟢🟢🟡
- José Canale and Matías Sepúlveda are both away on international duty.
- Felipe Peña Biafore (midfield pivot) is injured and will miss the trip to Rosario.
- Ramiro Carrera and Luciano Romero are out with injuries.
- Raúl Loaiza is nursing a muscle injury and is doubtful after a long lay-off.
- Marcelino Moreno, Franco Watson and Agustín Medina compete for the creative midfield roles in the absentees' stead.
- Allan Wlk is expected to lead the line as the lone striker, supported by Eduardo Salvio.
Predicted Lineups
Lanus vs Newells Old Boys Livescore and Live Video - ARGENTINA Liga Profesional, Round 1 - ScoreBat: Live Football
| Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1 | Lanús 4-2-3-1 |
|---|---|
| Josué Reinatti (GK) | Nahuel Losada (GK) |
| Martín Ortega (RB) | Tomás Guidara (RB) |
| Lautaro Giannetti (CB) | Carlos Izquierdoz (CB, C) |
| Lucas Carrizo (CB) | Ronaldo Dejesús (CB) |
| Jerónimo Russo (LB) | Sasha Marcich (LB) |
| Luca Regiardo (DM, C) | Agustín Cardozo (DM) |
| Rodrigo Herrera (DM) | Franco Watson (DM) |
| Walter Mazzantti (RW) | Lucas Besozzi (LW) |
| Santiago Solari (AM) | Eduardo Salvio (AM) |
| Facundo Guch (LW) | Gonzalo Lobos (RW) |
| Matías Cóccaro (ST) | Allan Wlk (ST) |
Head-to-Head Record
Se destrabó el pase y Solari dejó Racing por Newell's: "Me hubiese gustado irme de otra manera" - TyC Sports
These two clubs have met 26 times in the modern Liga Profesional era, and the rivalry has been remarkably balanced. Newell's hold the historical edge with 11 wins to Lanús' 6, while 9 meetings have ended level. Remarkably, the fixture has produced goalless draws on several occasions — including 0-0 at the Bielsa in 2022 — and the most common scoreline across the last decade has been a single-goal margin either way. The Rosario venue itself has been a fortress for the Leprosos: Lanús have won only once in their last twelve league visits to Santa Fe.
The elephant in the room is the most recent meeting: Lanús' brutal 5-0 demolition of Newell's back in March 2026, in which the Granate racked up 63% possession and 14 shots while Newell's managed just two attempts on target. That humiliation directly triggered Kudelka's defensive rebuild and, ironically, the new-look Newell's have been far harder to break down ever since. Since that 5-0, the head-to-head momentum sits with the home side, who won the previous Bielsa encounter 2-1 in October 2024. For more historical betting angles on tightly balanced rivalries, check our draw prediction hub and the guide to analysing draw and handicap odds.
Key Players Comparison
Matías Cóccaro — Newell's
The Uruguayan striker is Newell's focal point and top assist provider. He battles relentlessly, but has been starved of service in the Clausura — he will relish the physical duel with 37-year-old Carlos Izquierdoz.
Allan Wlk — Lanús
Paraguay's young striker arrived from Olimpia for €1.74M in July and instantly became the Granate's spearhead. Quick across the first five yards, he is Lanús' best hope of nicking a counter-attacking goal.
Santiago Solari — Newell's
The most creative player on the pitch. Solari's ability to drift between lines and slip through-balls will decide whether Newell's can turn territorial dominance into actual chances.
Eduardo Salvio — Lanús
Still pulling the strings at 36, Salvio is the assist leader of this Lanús side and the man who unlocks low blocks with late runs into the box. Set pieces are his other weapon.
Luca Regiardo — Newell's
The captain and midfield shield. His positioning has been the cornerstone of Newell's defensive resurgence since the summer window.
Carlos Izquierdoz — Lanús
The veteran centre-back and captain organises a makeshift defence missing Canale, Sepúlveda and Romero. His duel with Cóccaro could define the evening.
The individual battle maps almost perfectly onto the tactical one: Newell's field experience and structure, Lanús field youth and transitions. Cóccaro against Izquierdoz is the classic clash of a mobile striker against an organiser, while the midfield triangle of Regiardo and Herrera must smother Salvio's influence between the lines. If Salvio is neutralised, Lanús simply do not create — they have scored more than once in only a handful of away games all season. Our BTTS (GG/NG) analysis page breaks down exactly why that points so strongly towards at least one side failing to score, and the Lanús vs Mirassol preview shows how this same Lanús attack struggled to break down compact sides earlier in the year.
The Managers
Frank Kudelka (Newell's Old Boys)
Kudelka's second spell in Rosario has been defined by pragmatism. Handed a squad that conceded more goals than any other in the first half of 2026, he demanded defensive reinforcements in the July window — and the arrivals of Giannetti, Escobar and Alan Soñora have delivered instant results: fourteen league games unbeaten, nine home matches without defeat, and a side that concedes less than a goal per game at the Bielsa.
The Argentine coach is a master of the emotional dimension of fixtures like this. Expect him to reference the 5-0 humiliation all week, using revenge as fuel while keeping his team's trademark discipline. Kudelka's teams rarely gamble for a win — a trait bettors must price in when backing Newell's outright.
Mauricio Pellegrino (Lanús)
Pellegrino remains one of South America's most respected tacticians after steering Lanús to the 2025 Copa Sudamericana title. His 2026 has been a marathon — Recopa, Libertadores, Copa Argentina plus domestic duty — and the toll is visible in the treatment room and the away form column.
The former Valencia and Southampton boss builds from a solid 4-2-3-1 base and trusts academy products, but with five senior players unavailable here his options off the bench are thin. Pellegrino's pragmatic instinct in difficult away fixtures is to contain first and strike late — a game plan that historically produces draws more than anything else. Our bookmaker odds guide explains how managers' game-state tendencies like this one are priced into the markets.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 1.70 (European odds)
The standout bet of the fixture. Newell's last four Liga Profesional matches have all finished under 2.5 goals, the home defence concedes under a goal per game, and Lanús create little away from home. Four of the last six meetings between these sides at the Bielsa stayed under the line as well. A low-scoring grind is the single most probable scenario — see our over/under prediction hub for similar selections.
Odds: 3.20 (European odds)
Nine of the 26 recent meetings ended level, Newell's are draw-heavy by design (three draws in their last five), and Lanús would happily take a point from a venue where they have won once in twelve. At odds of 3.20 the draw offers clear value against an implied probability of just 31%, when our modelling puts the true chance closer to 38%. The football betting odds guide on our blog shows how to spot exactly this kind of overlay.
Odds: 1.85 (European odds)
Lanús have failed to score in a significant share of their away fixtures this season, while Newell's keep clean sheets in the majority of home games under Kudelka. With Canale and Sepúlveda absent and Salvio likely marked out of the game, the Granate's path to a goal is narrow. Combine this with the under for a natural same-game combination. More GG/NG analysis is available on our GG/NG page.
Odds: 8.50 (European odds)
Our headline prediction. A goalless draw is the modal outcome when two of the division's most defensively drilled, lowest-scoring sides meet in a grudge match. Newell's have already played out a 0-0 at Estudiantes this Clausura, and this fixture has produced 0-0 scorelines at the Bielsa before. Our correct score tips section covers staking approaches for long-shot scorelines.
Odds: 1.75 (European odds)
For those who believe the home fortress holds but fear another deadlock, Draw No Bet on Newell's offers a safety net. The Leprosos are unbeaten in nine home league games and the venue has been a house of horrors for Lanús for over a decade. Pair it with the draw insurance and you have the two most likely results covered. Learn more about this market on our draw no bet predictions page and our beginner's guide to reading betting odds.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We are predicting a 0-0 draw, and the case is compelling from every analytical angle. Start with the defensive baseline: Newell's have conceded less than a goal per home game since their summer rebuild, have kept clean sheets in the majority of matches at the Bielsa, and are unbeaten in nine straight home league fixtures. Lanús, for all their three wins in four, have scored more than once in only a handful of away games in 2026 and arrive without five attacking or creative players — Canale and Sepúlveda on international duty, Peña Biafore, Carrera and Romero injured. An away attack built around a 36-year-old playmaker and a 21-year-old striker facing Giannetti and Carrizo at their most organised is simply not a recipe for goals.
Equally, Newell's own attack is among the least productive in the division, averaging under a goal a game and failing to score in multiple home fixtures this season. Cóccaro will work tirelessly against Izquierdoz, but Solari and Soñora have struggled to convert possession into big chances, and Pellegrino's teams are famously difficult to break down when they commit to a low block. Expect long spells of sterile midfield possession, a handful of half-chances from set pieces, and two benches reluctant to overcommit in the final twenty minutes. Both coaches would privately accept a point: Kudelka to extend his unbeaten home run, Pellegrino to bank a road result against the run of away form. A tense, tactical, goalless stalemate at the Coloso del Parque — and a result that keeps both teams exactly where they are in the Clausura table.
Key Insights & Statistics
Newell´s Old Boys vs. Lanús: En vivo Online En directo por la fecha 17 de la Liga Profesional
- Newell's are unbeaten in their last 9 home Liga Profesional matches (W3 D6).
- The Leprosos are unbeaten in 14 of their last 16 league games overall.
- Each of Newell's last 4 matches finished with under 2.5 goals scored.
- Lanús have lost 13 of their last 20 away matches in all competitions.
- The Granate have won just 1 of their last 12 league visits to Newell's.
- Newell's kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5; Lanús have failed to score in several away fixtures this Clausura.
- The reverse fixture in March 2026 ended 5-0 to Lanús — the catalyst for Newell's defensive rebuild.
- Nine of the 26 recent league meetings between the clubs have ended in draws, including a 0-0 at this venue in 2022.
- Lanús are without five players: Canale and Sepúlveda (international duty), Peña Biafore, Carrera and Romero (injured).
- Newell's are missing Escobar, Mateo García, Esponda, Montero, Goitea and long-term absentee Salcedo Zárate.
- Newell's average 46% possession and under a goal per game; Lanús average 51% but score just 1.1 per game overall and far fewer away.
- Both managers favour structured 4-2-3-1 systems; neither side ranks in the top half for shots on target per match.
Conclusion
Newell's Old Boys vs Lanús has all the ingredients of a classic Argentine chess match: a revenge narrative dating back to the 5-0 in March, two tactically disciplined managers, a fortress home record against a dismal away one, and two squads stripped of key personnel. The home side's transformation under Kudelka has been one of the stories of the Clausura — from the league's leakiest defence to one of its most miserly — while Lanús continue to oscillate between dominant home form and chronic travel sickness.
From a betting perspective the picture is unusually clear. The under 2.5 goals at 1.70 and the draw at 3.20 are the core positions, with both teams to score — NO at 1.85 a natural complement. Our correct score prediction of 0-0 at 8.50 captures the modal outcome of everything the data tells us: two low-scoring, defensively structured sides, one missing its creative spine, the other its cutting edge, meeting in a fixture with a long history of stalemates. The football predictions for today hub features more analysed fixtures across world football, and the Instituto vs Lanús preview offers another angle on Pellegrino's side.
Final verdict: Newell's Old Boys 0-0 Lanús. Expect a war of attrition at the Bielsa, settled — if at all — by a single moment of set-piece quality or individual brilliance. Whatever happens, do not expect goals, and do not expect the visitors to leave Rosario with three points. For further reading on keeping your betting disciplined, our football betting mistakes to avoid article is essential reading before kick-off.