Grau vs AD Tarma: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 by Steve
Atlético Grau vs AD Tarma Prediction
Peru Liga 1 Clausura 2026 Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Por quĂ© RaĂșl RuidĂaz no hace goles con AtlĂ©tico Grau? DT Ăngel Comizzo explica
Matchday 13 of the Liga 1 Clausura 2026 closes on Friday afternoon in Piura, where AtlĂ©tico Grau host AD Tarma at the Estadio Miguel Grau in a fixture that carries very different pressures for each side. Los Blancos arrive sitting comfortably in mid-table after a Clausura campaign in which Gerardo Ameli's rebuilt squad has already beaten UTC, Comerciantes Unidos, Cajamarca, Melgar and Alianza AtlĂ©tico, but a worrying dip â a goalless stalemate against Los Chankas followed by a 3-1 defeat away to Alianza Lima â has stalled their push toward the upper half. Friday's game, screened live on L1MAX, is the classic chance for Grau to reset their season in front of their own fans, and it is the type of home assignment our analysts track closely in the weekly football predictions for today column, where home favorites facing out-of-form visitors have consistently offered the strongest value lines this season.
ADT Tarma, by contrast, travel to sea level with the air of a side in genuine trouble. The Vendaval Celeste have collected just one victory in their last twelve league outings â a 2-1 home win over Cienciano in late September â and sit anchored in the relegation zone after defeats to Melgar, Alianza Lima and Los Chankas either side of a goalless home draw with Cajamarca. The club responded by turning to veteran tactician VĂctor "Chino" Rivera, the former Universidad San MartĂn championship-winning coach, whose mission is to drag ADT off the foot of the accumulated table before the Clausura reaches its decisive stretch. For readers who follow the Peruvian market regularly, this pairing of a mid-table home side against a bottom-three traveler is profiled in depth on our Grau vs Los Chankas preview and in the Los Chankas vs AD Tarma preview, two recent results that shaped both clubs' current trajectory.
Historically this has been one of the most balanced fixtures in modern Liga 1. Across ten previous meetings the record reads three wins apiece with four draws, and the most recent chapter â a 1-0 ADT victory in Tarma back in May thanks to a Jordan Guivin strike â still stings in Piura. Yet context matters more than history here: Grau's attacking weapons, led by the evergreen RaĂșl RuidĂaz, Pablo Lavandeira and NicolĂĄs Delgadillo, have produced nine goals in their last five home Clausura matches, while ADT have managed just two goals in their last five away from the altitude of the Estadio UniĂłn Tarma. With European bookmakers pricing Grau around 2.05 for the home win, the market clearly expects Los Blancos to avenge May's defeat â and our model agrees, projecting a narrow 2-1 Grau victory that is reflected in the correct score tips section of this weekend's betting card.
Tactical Preview
Jonathan Bauman, fichaje de ADT: refuerzo como delantero de Liga 1 y campeĂłn Copa Sudamericana con IDV | FUTBOL-PERUANO | DEPOR
Formation & Key Matchups
Atlético Grau (4-2-3-1)
Gerardo Ameli, who took over in March after Ăngel Comizzo's departure and refreshed the attack mid-year with the arrivals of AdriĂĄn FernĂĄndez and Mauro Da Luz, has settled on a 4-2-3-1 that transforms into a 4-4-2 without the ball. The double pivot of Rafael Guarderas and Paulo de la Cruz gives Grau a platform to feed NicolĂĄs Delgadillo between the lines, while Pablo Lavandeira hugs the right touchline to deliver service toward RaĂșl RuidĂaz. The tactical evolution of Peruvian sides toward structured 4-2-3-1 shapes is something we explored in our evolution of football tactics feature, and Grau are a textbook case: compact in the middle, patient in buildup, and devastating when transitions reach their veteran No. 9 inside the box.
AD Tarma (4-2-3-1)
VĂctor Rivera inherited a 4-2-3-1 from the Pablo Trobbiani era and has kept the spine intact: Luis PĂ©rez anchoring midfield, captain VĂctor CedrĂłn operating as the classic Peruvian enganche, and Jonatan Bauman â joint top scorer with five league goals alongside Jordan Guivin â leading the line. The problem has not been shape but output: ADT have scored just 30 goals in 29 league matches while conceding 44, and away from Tarma's altitude their pressing evaporates. Newcomer Jeremy Canela, signed as creative cover, has chipped in three goals, but Rivera is still searching for the right balance between CedrĂłn's playmaking and the counter-attacking pace of Joao Rojas, who has three assists this term.
Critical Vulnerability
ADT's away defense is the glaring weakness: they have kept zero clean sheets on the road in the Clausura and were carved open repeatedly in the 3-0 loss at Melgar and the 2-1 defeat at Los Chankas. Their full-backs, Jair Reyes and Luis GĂłmez, are asked to defend deep 1v1 situations against wingers â exactly the scenario Lavandeira and Delgadillo thrive in. With Lucas Acevedo and Diego RodrĂguez winning aerial duals at the back and Grau committing numbers to second balls around the box, the visitors' only realistic route is a set-piece or a CedrĂłn through-ball in behind. Bettors comparing BTTS (GG/NG) markets should note that ADT have scored in four of their last six away matches despite the losses â enough to keep the goals angle alive even in defeat.
Team News & Squad Status
AtlĂ©tico Grau đ
- Out: AdriĂĄn De la Cruz (injury) â the midfielder remains sidelined and misses a second straight fixture.
- Key man: RaĂșl RuidĂaz leads the line again; the veteran striker has been Grau's focal point in every Clausura home match.
- In form: Nicolås Delgadillo and Pablo Lavandeira both delivered in the 3-1 home win over Alianza Atlético in September.
- Options: Clausura signings AdriĂĄn FernĂĄndez and Mauro Da Luz provide fresh legs in wide and central attacking areas.
- Goalkeeping: Patricio Ălvarez, who produced a stunning save in the Apertura meeting between these sides, keeps his place.
AD Tarma đš
- Out: Horacio Benincasa (injury) â the defender has not featured in recent matchday squads.
- New era: VĂctor "Chino" Rivera took charge at the start of October and is still winless after two league games in charge.
- Top scorers: Jonatan Bauman and Jordan Guivin (5 goals each) carry the scoring burden; Guivin scored the winner in May's reverse fixture.
- Captain: VĂctor CedrĂłn has worn the armband more than any other player this season and dictates tempo from the No. 10 role.
- Creators: Carlos Cabello leads the team with 5 assists; Joao Rojas adds 3 from the right flank.
- Confidence boost: ADT reached the Copa de la Liga semifinals earlier this season, a reminder of this squad's ceiling.
Predicted Lineups
VĂctor CedrĂłn renovĂł su contrato con ADT de Tarma hasta el 2026 | Agencia Andina
| Atlético Grau (4-2-3-1) | AD Tarma (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Patricio Ălvarez (GK) | Juan Valencia (GK) |
| Rodrigo Tapia (RB) | Jair Reyes (RB) |
| Lucas Acevedo (CB) | John NarvĂĄez (CB) |
| Diego RodrĂguez (CB) | Ronny BiojĂł (CB) |
| Elsar Rodas (LB) | Luis GĂłmez (LB) |
| Rafael Guarderas (DM) | Luis PĂ©rez (DM) |
| Paulo de la Cruz (DM) | Josue Alvino (DM) |
| Pablo Lavandeira (RW) | Joao Rojas (RW) |
| NicolĂĄs Delgadillo (AM) | VĂctor CedrĂłn (AM, C) |
| Freddy Oncoy (LW) | Jordan Guivin (LW) |
| RaĂșl RuidĂaz (ST) | Jonatan Bauman (ST) |
Head-to-Head Record
These sides know each other intimately: ten meetings since 2022 have produced three Grau victories, three ADT victories and four draws, with a combined 29 goals underlining how rarely this fixture stays goalless for long. The most recent encounter, on matchday 13 of the Apertura in May, saw ADT win 1-0 in Tarma through Jordan Guivin â a match that also featured a late red card for Grau defender Lucas Acevedo â and that result is fresh motivation for Friday's hosts. Before that, Grau won 2-0 at home in August 2025, while February 2025 delivered a seven-goal thriller in Tarma that ADT edged 4-3. Grau's most recent visit to the Estadio UniĂłn Tarma before that ended 2-1 in their favor in August 2024, sandwiching a 2-2 draw in Piura earlier that year. Supporters wanting the full context of ADT's season, including their 1-1 home result profile, can check our ADT vs Cienciano preview, which covers the only victory of their recent run, and the Sporting Cristal vs AD Tarma preview for their struggles against top-half opposition.
What the raw numbers hide is the venue split: ADT's three wins have all come in Tarma's altitude, while Grau are unbeaten in their last three home meetings with the Vendaval Celeste, winning twice. With Friday's game at sea level in Piura â a factor that nullifies ADT's one structural advantage â the historical balance tilts decisively toward Los Blancos, and it is a pattern we also flagged in Grau's recent home win over Melgar and their victory against Comerciantes Unidos, where home dominance proved the decisive variable in both previews.
Key Players Comparison
âȘ RaĂșl RuidĂaz (AtlĂ©tico Grau)
The former Seattle Sounders and Mexico-based striker remains the most decorated player on the pitch. Even in the autumn of his career, his penalty-box movement and first-time finishing make him the fulcrum of everything Grau create. His duel with Ronny BiojĂł will define the afternoon.
đ” Jonatan Bauman (AD Tarma)
The Argentine centre-forward has five league goals and leads ADT's line with tireless pressing. At 1.75m he is not a target man, but his knack for drifting between centre-backs produced the assist chain for Guivin's winner in May.
â VĂctor CedrĂłn (AD Tarma)
The captain and creative heartbeat. CedrĂłn has worn the armband in more matches than anyone else in the squad this season, and every ADT attack in a difficult campaign has flowed through his right boot.
The individual battle that excites most is between Grau's creative axis â Delgadillo floating off the left and Lavandeira attacking the right channel â and ADT's veteran double pivot of Luis PĂ©rez and Josue Alvino, who have been overrun in nearly every away match this Clausura. If CedrĂłn is forced to drop deep to help his midfield, Bauman becomes isolated against the physical pairing of Acevedo and RodrĂguez, and that is precisely the scenario that unfolded in ADT's 3-0 loss at Melgar. Conversely, if CedrĂłn finds pockets between the lines, Grau's makeshift full-back areas â with AdriĂĄn De la Cruz injured â could be exposed on the counter. For bettors weighing the over/under goal markets, the presence of three proven scorers in RuidĂaz, Bauman and Guivin supports goals at both ends, a theme consistent with this fixture's history of 2.9 goals per game across the last ten meetings.
The Managers
Gerardo Ameli (Atlético Grau)
The Argentine arrived in Piura in March 2026 with a simple mandate: stabilize a club that had collected just four points from its opening six Apertura matches under Ăngel Comizzo. Ameli, who earned a Copa Sudamericana group-stage berth with Alianza AtlĂ©tico in 2025 and knows Peruvian football intimately from spells with Deportivo Municipal, UTC, Ayacucho, Cienciano and Garcilaso, has restored structure and belief.
His mid-season recruitment of AdriĂĄn FernĂĄndez and Mauro Da Luz signaled ambition, and his willingness to build around a veteran champion like RuidĂaz while blooding younger legs has produced one of the Clausura's more watchable attacks. Friday is a test of his game management: Grau have lost their last two away matches by three-goal margins, and Ameli must ensure his side channels home energy without overcommitting against a desperate opponent.
VĂctor "Chino" Rivera (AD Tarma)
Rivera's appointment at the start of October was a statement of survival intent. The 55-year-old is one of the most decorated Peruvian coaches of his generation, having won back-to-back national titles with Universidad San MartĂn in 2007 and 2008 and later managed Sporting Cristal, CĂ©sar Vallejo, Deportivo Municipal and the Peru U-20 national team. He replaced Pablo Trobbiani after a run of one win in twelve, and his early message â "each match for us will be a final" â set the tone for a relegation battle.
Rivera's trademark is tactical discipline and emotional control of the dressing room, qualities ADT's young, rotated squad (41 players used this season) desperately need. The Copa de la Liga semifinal run earlier in 2026 proves the ceiling of this group, but turning Tarma's altitude fortress into points on the road at sea level is a different puzzle â one he has yet to solve in two attempts. His pragmatism suggests a compact 4-2-3-1 designed to frustrate first, meaning Grau may need patience, not panic, to break the visitors down.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 2.05
Everything aligns for the hosts: home form, venue history, ADT's one-win-in-twelve collapse, the altitude advantage removed, and a new opposing manager still installing his methods. European odds of 2.05 imply roughly a 49% win probability; our assessment puts Grau's true chance closer to 55â58% given ADT's away defensive record. For a steadier ride, the double chance (1X) sits around 1.30, while cautious stakers can explore the draw no bet market near 1.50. This selection anchors our bet of the day column for Friday's Liga 1 slate.
Odds: 1.95
The last ten H2H meetings average 2.9 goals, Grau's home Clausura games have produced nine goals in five matches, and ADT must chase the game at some point given their table position. Both defenses concede in clusters â Grau shipped three at Alianza Lima, ADT three at Melgar. At 1.95 the market is pricing a coin flip; the data says closer to a 58% probability. Pairing this with our over/under analysis hub and the BTTS page gives bettors a coherent same-game angle: Over 2.5 plus BTTS covers the most likely scorelines, including our 2-1 projection.
Odds: 1.80
ADT have scored in four of their last six away fixtures despite losing most of them, and CedrĂłn-to-Bauman remains a functioning combination even in defeat. Grau, meanwhile, have kept only two home clean sheets all Clausura. With Guivin â the man who scored the winner in May â drifting in from the left, the visitors are more likely than their league position suggests to find the net at least once. For broader single-selection ideas, our sure win predictions and banker of the day pages track how similar home-favorite profiles have performed across South America this season.
Odds: 9.50
Our headline prediction is a 2-1 home win â the most probable single scoreline in the model, blending Grau's home scoring rate (1.8 per home game in the Clausura) with ADT's stubborn tendency to score once even in defeat. The 2-1 line is the anchor of the correct score tips page this week. Alternative coverage for multiples: 2-0 at 8.00 if you expect ADT's away attack to stall, or 3-1 at 13.00 for a late-game blowout once Rivera is forced to commit bodies forward.
Odds: 2.40
Anytime scorer markets on a veteran No. 9 against the league's leakiest away defense carry obvious appeal, and RuidĂaz's movement against BiojĂł is the matchup mismatch of the day. A smaller-stakes alternative is Grau to win and BTTS at 3.60, which mirrors the 2-1 projection exactly. Whatever you stake, apply the discipline covered in our football betting mistakes to avoid and how to read betting odds guides â and consider in-play angles from the live betting strategies feature if ADT park the bus early. All picks are also cross-referenced on the hot predictions board.
đ Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We project a 2-1 AtlĂ©tico Grau victory, decided by the hosts' superior firepower at the Estadio Miguel Grau and ADT's well-documented struggles away from the altitude of Tarma. The expected script: Grau control territory through Guarderas and De la Cruz, Delgadillo finds space between the lines, and RuidĂaz opens the scoring before halftime â a pattern consistent with Los Blancos' first-half dominance in home wins over Melgar and Alianza AtlĂ©tico this Clausura. ADT's response in the second period, likely sparked by Rivera's substitutions, should see CedrĂłn and Guivin combine for an equalizer or a consolation, with Bauman testing Ălvarez repeatedly. But Grau's bench â refreshed by FernĂĄndez and Da Luz â provides the late winner, as it has done in multiple home fixtures this season.
The single biggest swing factor is the first goal: if Grau score first, their structured 4-2-3-1 becomes extremely difficult for a low-confidence visiting side to break down, and the 2-0/2-1 scorelines come into play. If ADT somehow strike first, Rivera would happily retreat into the low block that earned him a 0-0 at Cajamarca, turning the final half-hour into a tactical chess match. Our model weighs the former scenario far more heavily: Grau's home xG trend, ADT's one-win-in-twelve trajectory, and the H2H venue split all point the same direction. Expect chances at both ends, a feisty midfield duel between Guarderas and PĂ©rez, and ultimately Los Blancos celebrating a victory that keeps their Clausura ambitions alive while deepening ADT's relegation anxiety.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Balanced rivalry: 10 meetings since 2022 have produced 3 Grau wins, 3 ADT wins and 4 draws â but all three ADT victories came at home in the altitude of Tarma.
- ADT have won just 1 of their last 12 Liga 1 matches (1W, 3D, 8L) and sit in the relegation zone entering matchday 13.
- Grau are unbeaten in their last three home meetings with AD Tarma, winning two of them by 2+ goal margins.
- Atlético Grau have scored 9 goals in their last 5 home Clausura matches; ADT have conceded 3+ goals in two of their last three away games.
- ADT's two top scorers â Jonatan Bauman and Jordan Guivin â have 5 league goals each; Guivin scored the only goal in May's 1-0 ADT win in this fixture.
- VĂctor Rivera is winless in his first two league matches as ADT coach; Gerardo Ameli has overseen 5 home wins in the Clausura campaign.
- Injury news: Grau miss AdriĂĄn De la Cruz; ADT are without defender Horacio Benincasa.
- The H2H fixture averages 2.9 goals per game â supporting the Over 2.5 and BTTS angles alongside the 2-1 correct score call.
Conclusion
Friday's Liga 1 Clausura clash at the Estadio Miguel Grau sets a mid-table home side with top-half aspirations against a relegation-trapped visitor playing under a brand-new coach. AtlĂ©tico Grau have wobbled lately â winless in their last three league outings â but the fixture list has been unkind, and a return to Piura against the league's most out-of-form side arrives at the perfect moment. Gerardo Ameli's blend of veteran leadership in RuidĂaz and fresh energy from his Clausura signings has been far more effective at home than on the road, and every structural indicator favors Los Blancos here.
AD Tarma's situation is more complicated than a simple form line. VĂctor Rivera is a proven rescuer of struggling Peruvian clubs, and the Copa de la Liga semifinal run earlier in 2026 shows this squad retains genuine quality in CedrĂłn, Bauman and Guivin. But rebuilding confidence takes time, and asking a side with one win in twelve â and zero away clean sheets in the Clausura â to take points at sea level against a motivated Grau is a tall order. The Vendaval Celeste's realistic goal on Friday is competitiveness: stay compact, ride out the early pressure, and hope a set piece or a CedrĂłn moment keeps them in the contest deep into the second half.
Our final prediction is AtlĂ©tico Grau 2-1 AD Tarma. Grau's home attack should prove too persistent for an ADT defense that concedes in clusters on the road, though the visitors' attacking trio is good enough to punish any complacency and ensure both teams score. The 2-1 correct score, the home win at 2.05, Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 and BTTS at 1.80 form a coherent betting portfolio around that single narrative. Whatever unfolds on Friday afternoon, expect goals, tension and a Piura crowd driving their team toward a result that reignites a Clausura campaign that had begun to drift â while ADT return to the drawing board with the relegation battle raging on.