Girona vs Almeria: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Friday, 06 November 2026 by Steve
Girona vs AlmerĂa
LaLiga2 (LaLiga Hypermotion) Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Vladyslav Vanat's Debut Goal Marks Historic âŹ15 Million Transfer for Girona
Two of the biggest names in LaLiga2 collide on Sunday afternoon as Girona host UD AlmerĂa at the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, in what is arguably the pick of the weekend's fixtures in Spain's second tier. Both clubs were tasting La Liga football barely 18 months ago, and both have assembled squads with clear promotion ambitions this season â but they arrive at this meeting in slightly different emotional states. Girona sit seventh on 21 points after twelve rounds, scoring a handsome 22 goals, yet a damaging 2-1 home defeat to leaders CastellĂłn last time out left Quique Ălvarez demanding a response. For daily context around games like this one across Europe's leagues, our football predictions for today page tracks every angle, and the classic principle that recent form is one of the strongest predictors of the next result holds true in the Hypermotion this season.
AlmerĂa, meanwhile, travel to Catalonia as the form team of the division. GarcĂa Pimienta's side are second with 26 points from twelve matches â eight wins, two draws and only two defeats â and they put together a stunning seven-match winning run earlier this autumn as part of a nine-game unbeaten sequence. With 23 goals scored and just ten conceded, the Rojiblancos are the most complete side in the league on paper, and veteran goalkeeper AndrĂ©s FernĂĄndez (0.83 goals conceded per game) sits third in the early Zamora Trophy race. Their summer investment in Jorge Pulido, Miguel de la Fuente and Brian Cipenga has paid immediate dividends, while De la Fuente's seven league goals have him second in the scoring charts behind only Tenerife's Enric Gallego. For a wider tactical and market view of Spanish football betting, see our Spanish football betting odds analysis.
The stakes are simple and significant. Girona can climb straight back into the play-off places with a victory and cut the gap to the automatic promotion spots to just two points, while AlmerĂa know that beating a direct rival on the road would keep the pressure on leaders CastellĂłn at the summit. Montilivi is sold out for a November afternoon with partly cloudy skies and temperatures around 16°C â perfect football weather in Girona. The home crowd will expect goals: Girona's matches have produced thrillers all season, from the 5-2 opening-weekend rout of Las Palmas to the 5-1 demolition of Celta Fortuna in which Vladyslav Vanat scored a hat-trick. Anyone weighing the goal markets should study our over/under predictions before kick-off, because this fixture profile â two of the division's top four attacks â screams goals on paper.
Tactical Preview
YĂĄser Asprilla FC 27 Rating - 74 OVR - FUT.GG
Formation & Key Matchups
Girona (4-2-3-1)
Quique Ălvarez has settled on a 4-2-3-1 as his preferred shape, alternating with a 4-4-2 when Girona want extra security in the middle third. Paulo Gazzaniga remains the undisputed starter in goal and the platform of the side is a mobile back four: Mateu Morey and Ălex Moreno provide aggressive width from full-back, while Alejandro FrancĂ©s â one of LaLiga2's most composed young centre-backs â will partner Abdul Mumin in the middle in the absence of the suspended David LĂłpez. The double pivot of Fran BeltrĂĄn and Izan GonzĂĄlez is tasked with winning second balls and launching transitions quickly, because Girona's identity this season is verticality: get the ball to YĂĄser Asprilla in the right half-space and play through or around the opposition block. Donny van de Beek operates as the advanced playmaker, knitting combinations between the lines, with Carles PĂ©rez drifting in from the left. Everything, though, funnels towards Vladyslav Vanat, whose power, penalty-box movement and lethal finishing produced a hat-trick against Celta Fortuna and make him one of the most feared number nines in the division. Ălvarez's side ranks among the best in Spain at controlling matches with the ball in the final third, even if defensive concentration has occasionally wavered.
AlmerĂa (4-2-3-1)
GarcĂa Pimienta â a coach forged in FC Barcelona's academy and the man who took Las Palmas up in 2023 â imposes a completely different footballing philosophy built on positional play, short build-up and relentless circulation. Expect AlmerĂa to line up in a 4-2-3-1 with AndrĂ©s FernĂĄndez behind a back line of Chumi, Jorge Pulido, Ălex Muñoz and Lelo. The midfield duo of Vesga and Bonini will look to dominate possession, with Sergio Arribas given licence as the number ten to find pockets between Girona's lines. Out wide, Adri Embarba remains the creative heartbeat from the right â his delivery from set pieces and open play is AlmerĂa's most reliable weapon â with Brian Cipenga stretching play on the left. Summer signing Miguel de la Fuente leads the line with intelligent movement and a clinical edge: his seven goals have come remarkably efficiently, and he thrives on the cut-backs and low crosses that Pimienta's structure manufactures. The big tactical caveat is creativity: with Nico Melamed injured, AlmerĂa lose their most natural between-the-lines passer, which increases the burden on Embarba and Arribas to unlock a deep block.
Critical Vulnerability
The decisive zone is the space behind Girona's advanced full-backs. Mateu Morey and Ălex Moreno both push high to support Asprilla and Carles PĂ©rez, which leaves the channels exposed â and that is precisely where AlmerĂa's counters and Embarba's diagonal balls are most dangerous. Conversely, AlmerĂa's high defensive line and slow-reacting full-backs are vulnerable to Girona's direct transitions into Vanat's feet and the runs in behind from van de Beek and Asprilla. With David LĂłpez suspended, Girona also lose their organiser for defensive set pieces, an area where the 37-year-old's absence could cost them against Pulido and Ălex Muñoz at corners. In short: Girona will try to turn this into a transition race, AlmerĂa will try to turn it into a patience test. The team that imposes its rhythm first will likely decide the contest, and bettors comparing the two game-plans can find value context in our draw no bet predictions market analysis.
Team News & Squad Status
Girona â ââ â â
- OUT: David LĂłpez (suspended â accumulated bookings), Bryan Gil (injury), Javier Boñar (injury), Jastin GarcĂa (injury).
- Abdul Mumin is set to deputise for the suspended David López at centre-back alongside Alejandro Francés.
- Cristhian Stuani, 39, is fit and available as an impact substitute; the club captain remains a reliable penalty-box option late in games.
- Vladyslav Vanat and YĂĄser Asprilla are both available after their starring roles in the 5-1 win over Celta Fortuna â Girona's two most decisive attackers start.
- Girona played Copa del Rey football in midweek away to Cuarte, so rotation is possible in wide areas, with Ricard Artero and Juan Arango pushing for minutes.
AlmerĂa â â â â â
- OUT: Nico Melamed (injury), Daijiro Chirino (injury), Rodrigo Ely (injury).
- Andrés Fernåndez continues in goal; the veteran has conceded just ten league goals and ranks third in the Zamora Trophy standings.
- Miguel de la Fuente leads the line after his seven-goal start to the campaign; LĂ©o BaptistĂŁo and Thalys provide alternatives from the bench.
- Fixture congestion is a factor: AlmerĂa visited UD Castellonense in the Copa del Rey on 28 October and then played away at Eibar on 31 October, their third away trip in little over a week.
- GarcĂa Pimienta has kept a settled starting XI during the unbeaten run, so expect only minimal changes from the side that drew at Ipurua.
Predicted Lineups
El AlmerĂa se luce en Puerto BanĂșs - AS.com
| Girona (4-2-3-1) | AlmerĂa (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| P. Gazzaniga (GK) | Andrés Fernåndez (GK) |
| Mateu Morey (RB) | Chumi (RB) |
| Alejandro Francés (CB) | Jorge Pulido (CB) |
| Abdul Mumin (CB) | Ălex Muñoz (CB) |
| Ălex Moreno (LB) | Lelo (LB) |
| Fran BeltrĂĄn (DM) | Vesga (DM) |
| Izan GonzĂĄlez (DM) | Bonini (DM) |
| Carles PĂ©rez (RW) | Adri Embarba (RW) |
| Donny van de Beek (AM) | Sergio Arribas (AM) |
| YĂĄser Asprilla (LW) | Brian Cipenga (LW) |
| Vladyslav Vanat (ST) | Miguel de la Fuente (ST) |
Head-to-Head Record
These two clubs know each other intimately. Across 24 competitive meetings, AlmerĂa hold the historical edge with ten wins to Girona's seven, alongside seven draws â a rivalry that stretches across both divisions and the Copa del Rey. Girona fans, however, will remember the recent past fondly: when the sides last met in league action during the 2023-24 La Liga season, Girona won a memorable five-goal thriller at Montilivi and completed the double over the Andalusians, results that underlined the Catalan club's remarkable rise under MĂchel before both clubs' eventual relegation brought them back together in the second tier. Our draw predictions page always factors historical balance into its modelling, and history here suggests a tight contest even if the current form points one way.
Breaking the record down by venue adds nuance: Girona have made Montilivi a genuine fortress since returning to the division, winning four of their five home league matches this season by two or more goals, while AlmerĂa's two league defeats both came away from the Estadio MediterrĂĄneo. AlmerĂa's superior historical head-to-head was largely built in earlier eras; the modern Girona â possession-hungry, athletic and ruthless in transition â are a different proposition, and the most recent meetings between these sides have been dominated by the Catalans. Both teams have scored in the majority of recent encounters, another data point for goal-market backers considering our GG/NG (both teams to score) predictions.
Key Players Comparison
⥠Vladyslav Vanat (Girona, ST) â 5 league goals, including a hat-trick in the 5-1 win over Celta Fortuna. Powerful, two-footed and ice-cold from the penalty spot, the Ukrainian is Girona's reference point in attack and the single most important player on the pitch on Sunday.
đŻ Miguel de la Fuente (AlmerĂa, ST) â 7 league goals, second in the division's scoring chart. Brought in from Deportivo La Coruña in the summer, he has thrived in Pimienta's positional attack, scoring with remarkable efficiency from cut-backs and low crosses.
đȘ YĂĄser Asprilla (Girona, AM/RW) â 5 league goals and the engine of Girona's transitions. The Colombian's ability to carry the ball through midfield and arrive in the box makes him the link between Girona's defensive recoveries and their final-third threat.
𧀠AndrĂ©s FernĂĄndez (AlmerĂa, GK) â Conceded just 10 goals in 12 matches (0.83 per game), third in the Zamora Trophy race. His shot-stopping has single-handedly preserved points during AlmerĂa's unbeaten run.
The individual battle that will decide this match is Vanat versus the PulidoâĂlex Muñoz centre-back pairing. Vanat thrives on physical duels and quick combinations with van de Beek and Asprilla drifting into his zone; Pulido is experienced and positionally sound but lacks recovery pace, which is precisely what Vanat and the darting runs of Carles PĂ©rez will test relentlessly. At the other end, De la Fuente's movement against FrancĂ©s and the aerially strong but newly-formed Mumin partnership is equally compelling â Girona have conceded in most home games this season despite their strong record, so AlmerĂa will genuinely fancy their chances of scoring. That combination â Girona's attacking firepower at home plus a genuine visiting goal threat â is exactly the profile that fuels our hot predictions selections each weekend, and it shapes the value plays below. Bettors looking for deeper market context can also compare prices across bookmakers via our guide to comparing football odds across markets.
The Managers
Quique Ălvarez (Girona)
Ălvarez took charge in June 2026 following MĂchel's departure by mutual consent, inheriting a squad heavy with quality but scarred by relegation. A former Girona captain, the 51-year-old understood immediately that the project required identity as much as tactics â and he has restored a recognisable style: brave, vertical, and trusting of young Catalans such as Izan GonzĂĄlez, Pishchur and Artero alongside the experienced spine of Gazzaniga, BeltrĂĄn and Stuani.
His handling of Vanat has been particularly impressive, building the attack around the Ukrainian's strengths rather than forcing him into a rigid structure. Ălvarez's challenge now is consistency: the CastellĂłn defeat showed that Girona can still be opened up when their press is bypassed, and his in-game management â the timing of Stuani's introductions, the protection of a lead â will be under the microscope against the division's most polished side.
GarcĂa Pimienta (AlmerĂa)
Appointed on 30 June 2026 after Rubi's sacking, Pimienta arrived with a clear mandate: end AlmerĂa's two consecutive seasons of promotion near-misses and take the club back to La Liga playing attractive football. Thirty years at Barcelona as a player and coach shaped his philosophy, and it delivered instantly â Las Palmas-style positional play, yes, but married to the defensive discipline (ten goals conceded) that his Sevilla experience taught him.
The seven-match winning streak that catapulted AlmerĂa into the top two was built on control: 60-plus per cent possession, patient circulation, and the ruthless efficiency of De la Fuente. The test now is whether that possession game travels to a hostile Montilivi against a side that wants to turn the match into a sprint. Pimienta has never been afraid to adjust â expect AlmerĂa to concede the ball in spells and pick their moments to spring Embarba and Cipenga into the channels behind Girona's full-backs.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 2.10
This is a classic case of the market slightly overvaluing the league table and undervaluing the venue. AlmerĂa arrive second, but their schedule has been brutal â a midweek Copa del Rey trip to Castellonense followed by the league fixture at Eibar means this is their third away game in eleven days, with a long haul north on top. Girona, meanwhile, have won four of five home league games this season by two-goal margins, scoring 22 times in twelve matches with the division's most potent home attack. The hosts are missing David LĂłpez, but their spine â Gazzaniga, BeltrĂĄn, Asprilla, Vanat â is intact, and Montilivi's atmosphere on a Sunday afternoon has been worth a goal all on its own. At 2.10, Girona to win is the standout selection and anchors our sure win predictions approach for the weekend.
Odds: 3.90
If Girona win, there is every chance AlmerĂa score in the process. The visitors have found the net in the vast majority of their matches this season, De la Fuente is in the form of his life, and Girona have conceded in most of their home fixtures despite winning them. AlmerĂa's defensive record is strong, but it has been built at the MediterrĂĄneo; on the road they have been far more open, and Girona's 4-2-3-1 with Asprilla and Vanat in tandem generates 2.5+ expected goals at Montilivi most weeks. Combining the home win with BTTS nearly doubles the value of the straight win and fits the match narrative perfectly. For standalone BTTS coverage, see our dedicated GG/NG predictions page.
Odds: 1.75
The goal environment is irresistible. The league as a whole is averaging 2.74 goals per game, and these are two of its four most prolific attacks: Girona's home games have produced scorelines of 5-2, 2-0, 2-0, 1-2, 5-1 and 1-1 this season, while AlmerĂa's matches have featured 23 goals for and 10 against. Both managers preach attacking football, both defences will be missing key personnel (David LĂłpez suspended for Girona; Ely and Chirino injured for AlmerĂa), and the tactical collision â Girona's vertical transitions against AlmerĂa's high line â is a recipe for chances at both ends. This price is short for a reason; we would still play it. Our over/under prediction hub and the over/under betting guide explain how to build around totals like this.
Odds: 2.20
The Ukrainian striker has five league goals, a hat-trick in his most recent home outing, and penalty duties in a side that wins plenty of spot-kicks at Montilivi. He faces a centre-back pairing in Pulido and Ălex Muñoz that is organised but not quick, on an afternoon when Girona are expected to dominate territory. Anytime goalscorer prices on the division's most in-form home number nine are rarely this generous â Vanat at 2.20 is a bet we would happily include in a weekend accumulator or play as a single. Alternatives in the same market: YĂĄser Asprilla at around 2.75, and veteran Cristhian Stuani at roughly 2.90 if he starts.
Odds: 12.00
Our model lands on a 3-1 home win, and the correct score market offers the high-variance way to play it. The case: Girona's attacking output at home supports three goals against a fatigued away defence, while AlmerĂa's quality and Girona's occasional defensive lapses â magnified by David LĂłpez's suspension â support a consolation for the visitors. A Girona win with exactly three home goals has landed repeatedly at Montilivi this season (5-2, 2-0, 2-0, 5-1). Small stakes only, but 12.00 is a fair price for a scoreline our analysis genuinely expects. Browse similar angles in our correct score tips section.
đ Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We expect Girona to start fast. Ălvarez's side have scored early in the majority of their home fixtures, and an AlmerĂa defence playing its third away match in under two weeks is unlikely to settle quickly. Vanat should get his customary chances from Asprilla's carries and Mateu Morey's overlapping runs, and the Ukrainian's penalty-box reliability â plus set-piece threat from Mumin and FrancĂ©s â points to a multi-goal home performance. AlmerĂa will have spells: Pimienta's side are too technically accomplished to be shut out entirely, and Girona's own defensive absences mean De la Fuente or Embarba will likely find a route to goal, most plausibly from a set piece or a transition into the space behind Ălex Moreno. The middle portion of the match could be controlled by the visitors, but Girona's bench â with Stuani's nous and the fresh legs of Artero â should prove decisive late on.
The 3-1 scoreline reflects the season-long goal trends of both teams: Girona average well over two goals per home game, AlmerĂa average nearly two per game overall, and both defences have shown cracks against top-six opposition. A Girona win by two clear goals has been the most common home outcome at Montilivi this season, and it prices generously in the European handicap markets. For live coverage and in-play angles once the action starts, follow along on our live scores page, and for broader match-reading frameworks the piece on football prediction and livescore analysis breaks down how momentum, cards and substitutions shift live markets. Everything about this fixture â venue, schedule, form at home, attacking talent â points one way: a Girona victory with goals.
Key Insights & Statistics
- AlmerĂa are on a nine-match unbeaten league run (W7 D2) and spent matchweeks nine and ten top of LaLiga2; they have lost only twice all season.
- Girona have won four of their five home league matches, each by two or more goals, scoring 13 times at Montilivi across those fixtures.
- Vladyslav Vanat scored a hat-trick in Girona's 5-1 win over Celta Fortuna on 24 October and is on five league goals; only Vanat and Asprilla (also 5) have scored more than once for the hosts.
- Miguel de la Fuente's seven league goals place him second in the division's scoring charts, behind Enric Gallego's eight for Tenerife.
- AlmerĂa goalkeeper AndrĂ©s FernĂĄndez has conceded just ten goals in twelve matches (0.83 per game) â third-best in the early Zamora Trophy standings behind Romain Matthys and Arnau Tenas.
- Girona will be without suspended captain-in-spirit David LĂłpez, plus injured trio Bryan Gil, Javier Boñar and Jastin GarcĂa; AlmerĂa miss Nico Melamed, Daijiro Chirino and Rodrigo Ely.
- AlmerĂa face a congestion handicap: this is their third away fixture in eleven days after Copa del Rey duty at Castellonense and a league trip to Eibar.
- The historical head-to-head favours AlmerĂa (10 wins to 7, with 7 draws in 24 meetings), but Girona won both league meetings the last time these sides shared a division.
- LaLiga2 is averaging 2.74 goals per match this season, and this fixture pairs two of the division's top four attacks.
- Girona's league position (7th, 21 pts) flatters the chasing pack â they sit only five points behind AlmerĂa with the chance to jump into the play-off zone on Sunday.
Conclusion
This is the kind of fixture that defines a promotion campaign. Girona have the talent, the venue and â after the CastellĂłn setback â the motivation; AlmerĂa have the form, the structure and the division's most reliable spine. Something has to give at Montilivi on Sunday afternoon, and our analysis suggests it will be the visitors' remarkable resistance. The congestion of three away games in eleven days, the absence of key defensive and creative personnel, and the specific mismatch of Girona's vertical attack against a high line all tilt the balance towards the hosts. AlmerĂa will contribute to an excellent game â their possession play guarantees periods of control, and De la Fuente guarantees a threat â but Girona's firepower at home has overwhelmed every calibre of visiting defence this season.
From a betting perspective, the European 1X2 market is offering fair value on Girona at 2.10, with the Girona win and both teams to score combo at 3.90 the value play of the round. Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 reflects the scoring environment, Vanat at 2.20 is the standout player market, and the 3-1 correct score at 12.00 is the speculative flourish for those who like higher-variance returns. New readers can learn how we frame prices like these in our beginner's guide to reading football betting odds, while seasoned bettors building multiples can find structure in our win either half predictions market, which also favours Girona given their fast starts at home.
Prediction: Girona 3-1 AlmerĂa. Expect an open, entertaining contest with momentum swings, at least one penalty-area masterclass from Vanat, and a raucous Montilivi celebrating a statement win that launches Ălvarez's men firmly into the promotion race. Whatever happens, enjoy the match â and if you follow the action live, check in with our predictions for tomorrow's football to plan the next round of LaLiga2 betting. May your slips be green, and remember: stake sensibly, never chase, and treat every prediction as opinion rather than certainty.
