Burton vs Notts County: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Sunday, 08 November 2026 by Steve
Burton Albion vs Notts County
EFL Trophy Northern Group F Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Matthew Dennis: Burton Albion sign forward from Notts County - BBC Sport
Tuesday night under the lights at the Pirelli Stadium brings a compelling East Midlands derby with real stakes, as Burton Albion host Notts County in the final round of EFL Trophy Northern Group F. The two League One neighbours have taken very different routes to this fixture: Notts County have already sealed top spot after emphatic wins over Grimsby Town (2-1) and Nottingham Forest U21 (5-1), while Burton have edged through two penalty shootouts β losing 4-3 to Forest U21 after a 1-1 draw, then beating Grimsby 4-2 on penalties after a goalless stalemate. With the Magpies assured of first place, the pressure sits squarely on the Brewers, who know that only a victory guarantees them the runners-up berth and a place in the knockout stages. For readers tracking the full midweek programme across the divisions, our football predictions for today page covers every angle of the November 10 card.
The backdrop is rich in narrative. These sides met at Meadow Lane on 29 August in League One, when Luka Smyth's second-half brace β including an 84th-minute penalty β overturned Finn Delap's first professional goal to give County a 2-1 win, a result made more painful for Burton by Curtis Tilt's 83rd-minute red card. That defeat ended Burton's unbeaten start to the campaign, and the Brewers have been chasing consistency ever since. Yet Gary Bowyer's side arrive with genuine momentum of their own: a 4-0 FA Cup demolition of AFC Rushden & Diamonds at the weekend, a 2-1 home win over Leyton Orient, and a resilient 2-2 draw at Peterborough. County, meanwhile, are juggling cup commitments after a draining 2-2 draw at Altrincham in the FA Cup on Saturday lunchtime, and with promotion back to League One secured via the play-offs in May, Martin Paterson may be tempted to rest legs with the group already won. Understanding how to weigh such rotation-heavy fixtures is a skill we break down in our guide to reading team form before predicting a match.
League form paints a tight picture. Burton sit 15th in League One with 17 points from 14 games (four wins, five draws, five defeats, 18 scored and 21 conceded), while Notts County β playing their first season back at this level since 2014-15 β are 17th with 14 points from 12 matches, their record of three wins, five draws and four defeats underpinned by a miserly 13 goals conceded. The conditions at the Pirelli are expected to be classic November fare: light rain and around 8Β°C, which should suit Burton's more physical, direct approach. Our prediction is a narrow 2-1 home win β a scoreline that finally ends Burton's winless run against the Magpies, guarantees Bowyer's men second place, and sets up a knockout tie in December. Those hunting bigger prices should check our correct score betting tips page for guidance on pricing up exact results like this one.
Tactical Preview
Roberts aims to improve his vital statistics - BBC Sport
Formation & Key Matchups
Burton Albion 3-4-2-1
Gary Bowyer has settled on a 3-4-2-1 shape this season and it has given Burton a solid structural base. Corey Addai anchors the back three unit behind captain Curtis Tilt, with Toby Sibbick and Jason Sraha completing the trio. The wing-back pair is Burton's main creative conduit: Raphael Borges Rodrigues on the right and Jack Armer on the left provide width, while the central pairing of Sulyman Krubally and Kgaogelo Chauke must win the second-ball battle that will define this derby. Ahead of them, Gbemi Arubi and Charlie Webster operate as twin number tens behind a mobile front man β Mark O'Mahony has led the line in the most recent starting XI, but Matthew Dennis and Kain Adom are pushing hard for starts. The key matchup is Krubally and Chauke against County's roaming front two: if Burton's midfield screens prevent Luka Smyth from drifting between the lines, the home side control the game. Our strongest football formations tactical analysis explains why the 3-4-2-1 has become the EFL's favourite problem-solving shape.
Notts County 3-4-1-2
Martin Paterson mirrors the shape with a 3-4-1-2 that morphs into a 3-4-3 in possession. James Belshaw starts in goal behind Lucas Ness, captain Rod McDonald and Jacob Bedeau, with Nick Tsaroulla and IshΓ© Samuels-Smith supplying width from wing-back. The engine room belongs to the youthful pairing of Rory Finneran and Scott Robertson, with Conor Grant given licence as the advanced playmaker behind two strikers β Daniel Kanu and the in-form Luka Smyth, who has three goals already this season and famously destroyed Burton with a brace in August. County's game is built on control: they held 61% of the ball and fired 20 shots to Burton's two in that August meeting. The tactical fascination is whether Paterson fields anything like his first-choice unit on a Tuesday night three days after an FA Cup away day, three days before a league trip to Bromley β rotation could hand Burton the initiative. For a deeper look at how coaches manage these congestion puzzles, see our feature on football tactics for controlling a match.
Critical Vulnerability
Notts County's critical vulnerability on Tuesday is fatigue married to complacency. Already-qualified sides in this competition historically rotate heavily, and County's thin squad β stretched across League One, an FA Cup replay hunt at Altrincham, and this Trophy tie β simply cannot field three full-strength XIs in eight days. Burton, by contrast, have had their weekend cup tie at home and a settled week. The Magpies also concede territory when their wing-backs push high, and the channel between centre-back and wing-back is where Burton's twin tens β Webster and Arubi β will look to slide Dennis in behind. If County arrive with a weakened spine, Burton's set-piece threat (Tilt and Sibbick both attack corners well) becomes decisive. That set-piece edge is one reason we lean home win rather than the draw β and punters weighing insurance options can read our draw no bet predictions guide for a safety-first angle on matches like this.
Team News & Squad Status
Burton Albion π’π΄π’π‘π‘
- Finn Delap signed a new contract running to 2029 on 12 October 2026 β a huge boost. The young forward scored his first professional goal against these opponents at Meadow Lane in August.
- Matthew Dennis faces his former club after signing from Notts County on 4 July 2026; he scored the opener in the recent 2-1 win and has created the most big chances (3) in Burton's last five matches.
- Kain Adom leads Burton's shots-on-target numbers (0.7 per match) and is pushing Gbemi Arubi for a starting berth behind the striker.
- Burton have scored 8 goals across their last five outings, including the 4-0 FA Cup win over AFC Rushden & Diamonds β their biggest victory of the season.
- Curtis Tilt served his suspension after the August red card against County and returns as captain; the back three of Tilt, Sibbick and Sraha is settled.
- Expect targeted rotation: Jake Kean, Harvey Araujo, Emeka Adiele, William Collar and Dennis are all in contention to come into the Trophy XI.
Notts County π‘π’π‘π’π΄
- The Magpies are already confirmed as group winners with six points from two games (2-1 v Grimsby, 5-1 v Forest U21) and cannot finish lower than first β a major rotation trigger.
- Callum Roberts has five goals in all competitions and averages a team-high 1.5 shots on target per match β Burton's defence must keep him quiet.
- Ollie Cooper (four goals) and Luka Smyth (three goals, including the August brace against Burton) carry the creative and scoring load.
- County played an FA Cup first-round tie at Altrincham on Saturday 7 November (2-2) and face a league trip to Bromley three days after this match β fixture congestion is severe.
- Their League One trip to Bromley on 3 November was postponed, meaning this is their third game in eight days.
- With promotion via the play-offs still fresh, Paterson has leaned on fringe players in this competition already; James Gibbons, Max Sanders, Darius Lipsiuc, Hindolo Mustapha and Lee Ndlovu are primed for minutes.
Predicted Lineups
Notts County Beat AFC Wimbledon To Sign Australian Striker! | Luka Smyth Highlights - YouTube
| Burton Albion 3-4-2-1 | Notts County 3-4-1-2 |
|---|---|
| Corey Addai (GK) | James Belshaw (GK) |
| Toby Sibbick | Lucas Ness |
| Curtis Tilt (C) | Rod McDonald (C) |
| Jason Sraha | Jacob Bedeau |
| Raphael Borges Rodrigues | Nick Tsaroulla |
| Sulyman Krubally | Rory Finneran |
| Kgaogelo Chauke | Scott Robertson |
| Jack Armer | IshΓ© Samuels-Smith |
| Gbemi Arubi | Conor Grant |
| Charlie Webster | Luka Smyth |
| Mark O'Mahony | Daniel Kanu |
Head-to-Head Record
Finn Delap: Burton Albion defender agrees new deal until 2027 - BBC Sport
The recent head-to-head record makes uncomfortable reading for Burton supporters. Notts County have won all three of the sides' competitive meetings this decade, and the pattern is remarkably consistent: each of the last three encounters has finished 2-1 or 1-0 to the Magpies, with Burton failing to keep a single clean sheet. The most recent meeting, on 29 August 2026 at Meadow Lane, saw Finn Delap give the Brewers a 22nd-minute lead before substitute Luka Smyth struck twice in six second-half minutes β including an 84th-minute penalty β to turn the game on its head, with Curtis Tilt sent off for a second booking in the 83rd. County dominated possession (61%) and outshot Burton 20-2, a statistical chasm that Bowyer has worked hard to close since. Before that, County won 2-1 at the Pirelli in this very competition in September 2024, and 1-0 at Meadow Lane in September 2013, the clubs' first Trophy meeting. Those researching whether recent form predicts the next match will note that H2H dominance of this kind often reverses once circumstances shift β and Tuesday's circumstances (rotation, fatigue, venue) shift decisively toward the hosts.
Crucially, context separates this fourth meeting from the previous three. Notts County arrived in each of those games with something to play for and a near-full-strength side; on Tuesday they arrive with nothing to gain, top spot already banked, and a schedule that reads Altrincham (FA Cup, Saturday), Burton (Trophy, Tuesday), Bromley (League One, Saturday). History says County dominate this fixture; current reality says Burton have the fresher legs, the stronger motivation, and a manager β Gary Bowyer β with a personal affinity for this competition, having won the Trophy as a player with Rotherham United in the 1995-96 season. Derby pride is also on the line: ending a three-game losing skid against their oldest rivals, in front of a home crowd with the famous Burton fog rolling in off the Trent, would mean far more to the Brewers than a dead-rubber point would to the visitors. Punters who prefer to side with the visitors' historical dominance can explore the double chance market as a hedge against a County smash-and-grab.
Key Players Comparison
The story of the tie. Signed from Notts County on 4 July 2026, Dennis knows County's centre-backs intimately and has created a team-high 3 big chances across Burton's last five matches. He scored the opener in the 2-1 recent win and will be laser-focused on making his old employers regret letting him walk. As an anytime-goalscorer option he is priced at 3.60.
County' biggest threat with five goals in all competitions and a team-leading 1.5 shots on target per game. Even in a rotated side, Roberts is the man Burton's back three must track between the lines. His penalty-box movement decided the August fixture and he will fancy repeating the trick at the Pirelli.
Fresh off signing a new contract to 2029 in October, Delap scored his first professional goal against these very opponents in August. Tall, mobile and brave, he gives Burton a focal point none of County's likely rotated centre-backs will enjoy handling for 90 minutes in the rain.
The Burton bogeyman. Three goals this season, two of them in the 2-1 August win over the Brewers including a nerveless 84th-minute penalty. If Paterson names a strong side, Smyth starting is the single biggest danger to our 2-1 prediction. If he is rested, Burton's task becomes markedly easier.
The duel that decides the evening is Dennis versus the County centre-back pairing he trained alongside all last season. Lucas Ness and Jacob Bedeau are excellent when the defensive line is protected, but neither is comfortable defending large spaces in behind β exactly the zones Burton's twin tens will attack if County's wing-backs push on. Conversely, Burton must solve the Smyth problem: his brace in August came from drifting into the half-space between Sibbick and Armer, a weakness Bowyer has since patched by tucking Krubally deeper. If Roberts starts alongside Smyth, expect goals at both ends; if the pair are rested, Burton's defensive task simplifies dramatically. The deeper tactical truth is that individual quality is remarkably even across these two squads β the game will be decided by intensity, freshness and motivation, all of which tilt toward the hosts. That balance of factors is why goal markets appeal here, and our BTTS (GG/NG) predictions page offers a full methodology for pricing both teams to score.
The Managers
Gary Bowyer (Burton Albion)
Bowyer has been in charge at the Pirelli since December 2024 and has quietly rebuilt Burton into a structured, hard-to-beat League One side. A defender by trade, his teams are organised first and expressive second β Burton have conceded 21 in 14 league games and have kept their shape admirably despite a summer overhaul that saw the likes of Matthew Dennis arrive from County. His handling of the August defeat at Meadow Lane was telling: no panic, no public criticism of the sent-off Tilt, just a refocusing on the league campaign that produced the 2-1 win over Leyton Orient and the FA Cup rout of Rushden & Diamonds.
What makes Bowyer especially dangerous in this competition is personal history: he lifted this very trophy as a player with Rotherham United in 1995-96, and he has repeatedly spoken about the value of Wembley-path tournaments for squad-building clubs. He rested players smartly across the two group games so far, treating penalty shootout bonus points as a bonus rather than a target, and his selection on Tuesday will be designed to win in 90 minutes β because only a win guarantees Burton advance as runners-up. His in-game management, particularly the use of Adom and Collar from the bench, has been a strength this season.
Martin Paterson (Notts County)
Paterson's story adds a delicious subplot: he managed Burton themselves between January and May 2024, so he knows the Pirelli's quirks, the fan culture, and several members of the current Brewers squad personally. After leaving Burton he rebuilt his reputation and delivered the ultimate redemption in May 2026, guiding Notts County to promotion back to League One via the play-off final victory over Salford City β returning the world's oldest professional league club to the third tier for the first time since 2014-15.
His County side play brave, possession-based football β the 61% dominance and 20 shots in the August win over Burton was no accident β but Tuesday presents a coaching puzzle he has already half-solved: the group is won, the league is the priority, and County's thin squad cannot sustain three games in eight days. Expect Paterson to make five or six changes, protect Roberts and Smyth for the Bromley trip, and use the night to blood youngsters like Kameron Muir, who signed his first professional contract in August. Paterson would love to beat his old club, but do not expect him to compromise the bigger picture to do it β and that pragmatism is precisely what opens the door for a Burton win. Readers who enjoy these managerial chess matches should see our European 1X2 betting analysis guide for how to price home favourites in spot like this.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 2.45
Everything situational points to the hosts: County are already group winners and have nothing to play for, they played an FA Cup tie on Saturday and play again on Saturday, and Paterson has telegraphed rotation all competition. Burton, fresh, at home, needing the win to advance, with a manager who has personal history in this tournament β the 2.45 on offer is generous against a likely second-string County side. This anchors our 2-1 prediction and is the standout bet of the round. Stake accordingly as the main single; it also fits neatly into a bet of the day portfolio.
Odds: 1.90
Every recent meeting between these two has produced goals (2-1, 2-1, 1-0), Burton have scored eight in their last five, County seven in theirs, and a rotated away defence facing a motivated home attack rarely keeps things tight. Light rain on a slick Pirelli pitch should actually speed the game up. Over 2.5 at 1.90 offers clear value, and it is the natural companion to our correct score call. Our over/under predictions hub explains the full goals methodology behind this selection.
Odds: 1.75
Burton have not kept a clean sheet against County in three attempts, and even a rotated Magpies XI retains genuine quality in Roberts, Smyth, Grant and Cooper. At the other end, Burton have scored in four of their last five and Dennis has extra motivation against his old club. BTTS Yes at 1.75 is a strong supporting leg for accumulators. For the theory behind the market, our over/under betting guide covers goal-market fundamentals in detail.
Odds: 9.00
Our headline prediction. The scenario writes itself: Burton start fast against a rotated side, Dennis or Delap opens the scoring before half-time, County's quality tells midway through the second half for an equaliser, and the Brewers snatch a late winner β mirroring the 2-1 template of every recent meeting between these clubs, only reversed in Burton's favour this time. At 9.00, a small stake on 2-1 offers an excellent return-to-risk ratio as the speculative topper on the card. See our correct score tips for bankroll sizing on exact-score markets.
Odds: 3.60
The narrative bet of the night. Dennis signed from County in July, has created more big chances than any Burton player across the last five games, scored the opener in the recent 2-1 win, and knows exactly how Ness and Bedeau defend. Striker-versus-former-club goals are one of football's most reliable storylines, and at 3.60 the price underestimates the probability of him starting and scoring. Small stakes only β anytime scorer markets are high-variance β but this is the value shout of the fixture. Conservative punters can instead look at banker of the day selections for lower-odds anchors.
π Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We forecast a 2-1 Burton Albion victory in 90 minutes. The logic chain is straightforward: Notts County have already won the group, played on Saturday, play again on Saturday, and have every incentive to rotate; Burton need the win to guarantee runners-up progression, are fresher, at home, and carry extra emotional fuel through Matthew Dennis facing his former club and Gary Bowyer's personal history with this competition. Burton's last five results (W 4-0, L 0-2, W 2-1, D 0-0, D 2-2) show a side that competes in every game, while County's (D 2-2, W 2-0, D 1-1, W 2-0, L 0-2) have been built on defensive structure that a weakened Tuesday XI cannot fully replicate. Expect Burton to edge a high-tempo first half, County's class to level matters after the break, and the Brewers' greater desperation β plus set-piece threat from Tilt and Sibbick β to produce a decisive second goal late on, in front of a raucous Pirelli crowd braving the November rain.
The 2-1 scoreline also honours the fixture's history: every one of the last three meetings has finished either 2-1 or 1-0, and this rivalry rarely produces blowouts. The risks to the prediction are clear β if Paterson surprisingly fields Roberts and Smyth together, County's quality could absolutely prevail, which is why the draw no bet and double chance markets are flagged in the tips above. But over 90 minutes, with everything contextual pointing one way, Burton to win 2-1 is the call. If you are building an accumulator rather than a single, our draw prediction resources can help you spot which other Tuesday fixtures favour stalemates, while our guide to football odds markets will help you price the card like a professional.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Notts County have won all three competitive meetings with Burton this decade (2-1, 2-1, 1-0), but Tuesday is their first truly dead rubber against the Brewers.
- The Magpies are already confirmed as Northern Group F winners with six points β Burton (three points) must win to guarantee the runners-up qualification spot.
- Burton have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches; Notts County have scored 7 in their last 5.
- Matthew Dennis has created the most big chances for Burton (3) across that five-game sample and faces his former club on Tuesday.
- Kain Adom averages a team-high 0.7 shots on target per match for Burton; Callum Roberts leads County with 1.5 per match and has five goals in all competitions.
- County played an FA Cup tie at Altrincham on 7 November and travel to Bromley in League One on 14 November β three games in eight days.
- Luka Smyth scored a brace (78', 84' pen) in County's 2-1 win over Burton on 29 August 2026, a game County dominated 61% possession and 20 shots to 2.
- Finn Delap β who opened the scoring in that August match β signed a new Burton contract until 2029 on 12 October 2026.
- Gary Bowyer won this competition as a player with Rotherham United in 1995-96; Martin Paterson managed Burton between January and May 2024 before leading County to 2026 play-off final promotion glory.
- League One context: Burton are 15th (17 pts, 14 games) and County 17th (14 pts, 12 games) β separated by just three points despite Burton playing two games more.
- Weather forecast for kick-off: light rain and around 8Β°C at the 6,912-capacity Pirelli Stadium.
Conclusion
Burton Albion vs Notts County arrives with a rare alignment of factors that experienced bettors learn to treasure: one team with everything to play for, the other with nothing; one fresh and at home, the other travelling midweek between cup ties; and a score prediction β 2-1 to the Brewers β that simultaneously honours the fixture's tight history and the dramatically changed context of this fourth meeting. Our best pick is Burton to win at 2.45, supported by Over 2.5 goals at 1.90, Both Teams to Score at 1.75, the 2-1 correct score at 9.00, and the speculative flourish of Matthew Dennis to score against his old club at 3.60.
The counter-argument is genuine: County's class, their psychological hold over this fixture, and the possibility that Paterson fields a stronger side than expected all threaten the home win. That is precisely why the tips section layers value plays around the core selection rather than staking everything on a single outcome. In knockout-path competitions like the EFL Trophy, situational intelligence β who needs it, who is rested, who is rotated β routinely outweighs raw squad quality, and every situational indicator on Tuesday points toward Burton-upon-Trent.
Whatever the outcome, this is a derby worth watching under the lights, live on Sky Sports+ and NOW from 19:00 GMT. For more midweek analysis across England's cup competitions and beyond, keep our daily football predictions page bookmarked, and always remember the golden rule: gamble responsibly, within your means, and treat every prediction β including this 2-1 Burton win β as informed opinion rather than certainty. May your slips be green, and may the November rain at the Pirelli bring the Brewers the knockout football their season deserves.
