Alaves vs Valencia: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Sunday, 13 September 2026 by Steve
Deportivo AlavĂ©s vs Valencia CF Prediction & Betting Tips â LaLiga EA Sports 2026/27
Spain - LaLiga Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Danjuma: âThe result doesn't reflect what was shown in the match. We didn't deserve to loseâ - Valencia CF
LaLiga EA Sports 2026/27 has produced one of the most startling early-season storylines in years: Deportivo Alavés, a side that spent most of last spring fighting to avoid the drop, arrive at Matchday 5 sitting second in the table with ten points from four matches. Quique Sånchez Flores, appointed at Mendizorroza in March 2026 and now working with a squad extensively reshaped during the summer window, has turned the Basques into the division's most organised defensive unit. Alavés have beaten Getafe 3-0, held Rayo Vallecano 1-1 away, edged Villarreal 1-0 and, most impressively, dismantled Osasuna 5-2 at home last weekend. If you are building your coupon for the week, our prediction football today page tracks every angle of this fixture as team news drops.
Valencia CF, by contrast, are living through a nightmare start. Los Ches prop up the entire table with a single point from their opening four fixtures, having drawn 0-0 with Celta Vigo, lost 1-0 at home to Real Betis and been beaten 3-1 away at Deportivo La Coruña. A 2-1 friendly defeat to Newcastle United in August set the tone for a grim August, and Carlos CorberĂĄn â whose contract runs through 2027 and whose backroom staff for 2026/27 was confirmed in early August with Jorge AlarcĂłn as his second-in-command â is already under intense scrutiny at Mestalla. The visitors have scored just once in four league games and carry a crippling injury list into this trip to Vitoria-Gasteiz.
Historically this fixture has favoured Valencia â they have won 21 of the 45 meetings between the clubs â but the balance of power has shifted dramatically. AlavĂ©s have won two of the last three league encounters at Mendizorroza, including a 1-0 victory in May 2025, and the hosts' current blend of defensive rigidity and new-found attacking punch makes them clear favourites here. Bookmakers price the home win at around 2.05 in European odds, a remarkable quote for a club of AlavĂ©s' size and a reflection of how far the two teams have travelled in opposite directions since the spring. Everything points towards a tight, tactical contest in the Basque Country, and you can find more angles like this in our LaLiga team form analysis for bettors.
Tactical Preview
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Formation & Key Matchups
Deportivo Alavés 4-4-2
Quique SĂĄnchez Flores has reverted to the trusted 4-4-2 that defined his best spells at Getafe and Watford, and the structure has clicked instantly. Antonio Sivera anchors a compact block in goal, protected by a back four of Ăngel PĂ©rez Hidalgo, Nahuel Tenaglia, VĂctor Koski and Jonny Otto. The midfield bank of Carles Aleñå, Pablo Ibåñez, Antonio Blanco and Abderrahim Rebbach works in tight horizontal lines, denying central progression and forcing opponents wide into Mendizorroza's narrow corners. With the ball, AlavĂ©s transition quickly into Mariano DĂaz and Lucas BoyĂ©, whose physical duelling against an injury-hit Valencia back line will be the defining battle. Tenaglia, who has already chipped in with a goal this season, is a genuine set-piece weapon â a detail we break down further in our evolution of football tactics guide.
Valencia CF 4-4-2
Carlos CorberĂĄn continues to favour a 4-4-2 that relies on wing width from Arnaut Danjuma and overlapping full-backs, but the system has been stripped of its foundations by injuries. Captain JosĂ© GayĂ is fit and will lead the line from left-back, but with Diakhaby, Copete and Foulquier all unavailable, the central pairing of Cristhian Mosquera TĂĄrrega and the inexperienced Sem de Haas looks vulnerable. Stole Dimitrievski has been overworked in goal, and with Umar Sadiq and Luis Rioja sidelined, the goalscoring burden falls almost entirely on Hugo Duro, who converted a penalty in the 3-2 defeat of AlavĂ©s back in March but has barely seen the ball this season. Dani Raba and Harvey Elliott provide the creative thrust between the lines, yet Valencia are averaging just 0.25 goals per league game â a figure that tells its own story.
Critical Vulnerability
Valencia's critical vulnerability is the space in behind their makeshift centre-back pairing when the full-backs push high. AlavĂ©s have averaged 1.52 expected goals per game this season and, crucially, 45% of their attacks come from direct transitions within ten seconds of winning possession. BoyĂ© and DĂaz are both elite at pinning and spinning defenders, and with Pepelu forced to sit deeper to shield the back four, there will be a corridor between Valencia's midfield and defence for Aleñå to exploit. Conversely, AlavĂ©s' one weakness â a tendency to concede from crosses, shown in the two goals shipped against Osasuna â is less likely to be punished by a Valencia side missing its two most aerially dominant forwards in Sadiq and DĂaz-replacement options. For bettors who prefer structural angles, our GG/NG (both teams to score) predictions page analyses exactly this kind of attacking-versus-defensive mismatch.
Team News & Squad Status
Deportivo AlavĂ©s đ„
- Alavés report a near-fully fit squad, with only long-term absentee Facundo Garcés (knee) unavailable for selection.
- Quique SĂĄnchez Flores is expected to name an unchanged XI after the emphatic 5-2 victory over Osasuna, with summer recruits VĂctor Koski and Miguel RodrĂguez â the club's most expensive signing of the window â both pushing for starting roles.
- Mariano DĂaz has been the breakout star of the early season with two goals and two assists in three appearances, forming a productive partnership with Lucas BoyĂ©.
- Abde Ezzalzouli (No. 21) provides a game-changing option from the bench alongside Toni MartĂnez, Antonio Guevara and Sekou Diallo.
- Antonio Sivera has kept two clean sheets in four league games and boasts a 91% save percentage â the best mark in LaLiga this season.
Valencia CF đ
- Valencia's injury crisis deepens: Mouctar Diakhaby, JesĂșs VĂĄzquez Copete, Dimitri Foulquier, Umar Sadiq and Luis Rioja are all ruled out, while Dani LĂłpez remains doubtful.
- Captain José Gayà is fit to start at left-back and will wear the armband, one of only two senior defenders fully available alongside Cristhian Mosquera Tårrega.
- Carlos CorberĂĄn has confirmed he will persist with the 4-4-2, but Harvey Elliott may be deployed in a free role behind Hugo Duro to manufacture creativity.
- Arnaut Danjuma, scorer in the March meeting between these sides, is Valencia's most dangerous outlet but has managed only three shots on target all season.
- New set-piece coach DarĂo Navarro, recruited from Osasuna this summer, has been working overtime â Valencia's dead-ball output may be their best route to a goal at Mendizorroza.
Predicted Lineups
Hugo Duro (@hugoduro14) / X
| Deportivo Alavés 4-4-2 | Valencia CF 4-4-2 |
|---|---|
| 1. Antonio Sivera (GK) | 1. Stole Dimitrievski (GK) |
| 7. Ăngel PĂ©rez Hidalgo (RB) | 24. Pablo Maffeo (RB) |
| 14. Nahuel Tenaglia (CB) | 5. Cristhian Mosquera TĂĄrrega (CB) |
| 16. VĂctor Koski (CB) | 12. Sem de Haas (CB) |
| 17. Jonny Otto (LB) | 14. José Gayà (c) (LB) |
| 10. Carles Aleñå (RM) | 8. Javi Guerra (RM) |
| 8. Antonio Blanco (CM) | 18. Pepelu (CM) |
| 19. Pablo Ibåñez (CM) | 23. Filip UgriniÄ (CM) |
| 21. Abderrahim Rebbach (LM) | 7. Arnaut Danjuma (LM) |
| 9. Mariano DĂaz (ST) | 9. Hugo Duro (ST) |
| 15. Lucas Boyé (ST) | 19. Dani Raba (ST) |
Head-to-Head Record
Valencia and AlavĂ©s have met 45 times in all competitions, with Los Ches historically dominant: 21 victories to AlavĂ©s' 13, with 11 draws. At Mestalla the record is heavily one-sided â Valencia have won 15 of 22 home meetings â but the story at Mendizorroza is very different. AlavĂ©s have won eight of the 19 league visits by Valencia to Vitoria-Gasteiz, losing just six, and the hosts have taken points from six of the last eight home league encounters between the sides. Recent history strongly favours the men in blue and white: the October 2025 meeting at this ground finished 0-0, but AlavĂ©s won 1-0 here in May 2025 and also won 1-0 at Mestalla in May 2024, with a 2-2 draw in December 2024 the only league blemish in that run.
The most recent chapter was written on 8 March 2026, when Valencia edged a five-goal thriller 3-2 at Mestalla â Hugo Duro converting a penalty in a result that ultimately helped CorberĂĄn's men to a ninth-place finish last season, while AlavĂ©s endured a relegation battle that cost Eduardo Coudet his job and opened the door for SĂĄnchez Flores. The managers' personal histories add spice: SĂĄnchez Flores managed Valencia between 2005 and 2007 and is a former Valencia player, while his record against Los Che as a coach reads two wins, three draws and eight defeats â numbers he will be desperate to improve against a club he knows intimately. Punters tracking the historical angle can compare these numbers on our draw prediction page, where tight H2H fixtures like this one are a recurring theme.
Key Players Comparison
2 goals, 2 assists in 3 appearances | 1.52 xG involvement per 90
The former Real Madrid forward has been reborn under Sånchez Flores, combining penalty-box predatory instincts with selfless link-up play for Boyé. His movement between Tårrega and de Haas could decide this match.
2 clean sheets | 91% save percentage
The AlavĂ©s goalkeeper has been the best shot-stopper in LaLiga this season. Against a Valencia side averaging just 0.87 expected goals per game, his form is a decisive edge â check our sure win predictions for similar goalkeeper-driven angles.
1 goal this season | Valencia's only consistent shooting threat
Everything creative that Valencia produce flows through the Dutch winger. Cutting inside from the left against Jonny Otto will be his primary route, but service to him has been erratic at best.
Penalty specialist | 2 goals vs Alavés in 2025/26
Duro scored twice across the two meetings last season and remains Valencia's most reliable finisher, but he has been starved of supply â Valencia have created just 0.87 xG per match, the fourth-worst mark in the division.
The contrast in player form mirrors the contrast in team trajectories. AlavĂ©s' spine â Sivera, Tenaglia, Blanco and DĂaz â is performing at a level that would not look out of place in the top six, while Valencia's key men are either injured (Sadiq, Rioja), isolated (Duro) or misfiring (Elliott, Raba). The market has absorbed this information: the 2.05 on an AlavĂ©s win implies just under a 49% probability, which our model considers generous given the home side's 100% unbeaten record and Valencia's position at the foot of the table. For a broader view of how individual duels shape betting markets, see our guide to reading betting odds for beginners.
The Managers
Quique Sånchez Flores (Deportivo Alavés)
One of the most travelled coaches in Spanish football, SĂĄnchez Flores took over at Mendizorroza on 3 March 2026 with the club sliding towards the relegation zone and immediately imposed his trademark defensive discipline, steering AlavĂ©s to safety before being rewarded with a contract running to June 2028. His summer was characteristically busy â the club hunted four or five further signings after an initial recruitment drive â and he has blended newcomers like Koski, Protesoni and club-record signing Miguel RodrĂguez with the existing core in a matter of weeks.
The 61-year-old's connection to this fixture is deeply personal: he played 272 league games for Valencia between 1984 and 1994 and managed the club from 2005 to 2007, winning the Copa del Rey. Facing Los Che always carries extra motivation, and his record of organising compact, counter-attacking sides is perfectly suited to exploiting Valencia's current fragility. His career tally now spans more than 660 matches across Spain, England, Portugal, the Gulf and China.
Carlos CorberĂĄn (Valencia CF)
CorberĂĄn arrived in December 2024 as a hometown appointment â born in Cheste, just outside Valencia â and performed commendably last season to lift the club to ninth, comfortably clear of the relegation anxiety of the Baraja era. The club backed him with a new coaching structure for 2026/27, adding set-piece specialist DarĂo Navarro from Osasuna and confirming Jorge AlarcĂłn as his assistant, but the on-pitch returns have been alarming: one point from four games and a goal difference of minus eight.
The 43-year-old's challenge now is psychological as much as tactical. His public messaging has remained defiant â insisting the squad "have a lot of desire to compete" â yet his record against AlavĂ©s (one draw and one defeat from two meetings) offers little comfort. With the international break looming, a heavy defeat in Vitoria would significantly raise the temperature on the Mestalla hot-seat, and CorberĂĄn knows that his 4-4-2 must find a way to generate chances without Sadiq and Rioja, or the autumn could become a long salvage operation. Managers under pressure often produce unpredictable games â a pattern worth remembering when browsing our hot predictions section.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 2.05 (European)
This is the stand-out bet of the Matchday 5 card. AlavĂ©s are unbeaten with ten points from four games, second in the table, at home, near-full strength, and facing a Valencia side bottom of LaLiga with one point, one goal scored and eight conceded. The 2.05 quote implies a 48.8% probability, while independent models rate the home win closer to 55%. Mendizorroza has been a fortress in this fixture recently, and SĂĄnchez Flores knows Valencia's DNA better than anyone. Stake with confidence as the anchor of any slip â and if you prefer insurance, the draw no bet option on AlavĂ©s at 1.44 removes the stalemate risk entirely.
Odds: 6.50 (European)
Our headline prediction is a narrow 1-0 home victory, and the market price of 6.50 offers genuine value. AlavĂ©s have kept two clean sheets in four, concede just 0.33 goals per game, while Valencia have failed to score in three of their four league fixtures. Four of the last six meetings between these sides went under 2.5 goals, and the 1-0 scoreline has landed in two of the last three AlavĂ©s home wins over Los Che. This is a perfect speculative correct-score play â browse similar angles on our dedicated correct score tips page.
Odds: 1.62 (European)
Everything about this fixture screams a low-scoring game: Valencia average 0.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match, AlavĂ©s' defensive structure under SĂĄnchez Flores is the best in LaLiga (0.33 conceded per game), and the H2H trend is firmly towards unders â the 0-0 here last October and 1-0 in May 2025 underline the pattern. The 1.62 price is short but bankable, and it pairs beautifully with the home win in a combo. For more totals analysis, visit our over/under prediction hub.
Odds: 1.80 (European)
Valencia have been shut out in three of four league games and travel without Sadiq, Rioja and Copete â three of their most productive attackers from last season. AlavĂ©s, meanwhile, have conceded just once at home all season (in the 5-2 Osasuna game) and Sivera is in the form of his life. BTTS "No" at 1.80 prices Valencia's toothless attack too generously, and it is the ideal companion to the 1-0 correct-score call. See our GG/NG predictions for more both-teams-to-score selections.
Odds: 3.75 (European)
For the ambitious punter, the HT/FT market offers a juicy 3.75 on AlavĂ©s leading at the break and holding on. SĂĄnchez Flores' sides are famously fast starters at home â AlavĂ©s scored first in all three home league games this season â while Valencia have yet to lead at half-time in any league match in 2026/27. With the crowd roaring at a sold-out Mendizorroza, an early Tenaglia set-piece goal or a DĂaz strike could put this to bed before the hour. High risk, high reward â keep stakes small and manage your bankroll responsibly, as advised in our football betting mistakes to avoid guide.
đ Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We predict a 1-0 home victory for Deportivo Alavés, and the evidence stack is compelling. Alavés have the league's best defensive record (0.33 goals conceded per game), the best save percentage (91%), an unbeaten start and a tactical identity drilled by one of Spain's most experienced organisers. Valencia arrive bottom of the table, without a league win, without their first-choice centre-backs Diakhaby and Copete, without forwards Sadiq and Rioja, and having scored a single goal in 360 minutes of league football. The expected-goals differential tells the story brutally: Alavés +0.8 per game, Valencia -0.5.
The likeliest script sees AlavĂ©s control territory without dominating possession â their 45% average share is by design â before striking through a set-piece or a transition feed to Mariano DĂaz midway through the second half. Valencia will huff and puff through Danjuma and Elliott but will find Sivera in impenetrable form, and as the minutes tick away the visitors' desperation will only play into AlavĂ©s' counter-attacking hands. A clean-sheet home win at 2.05, an under-2.5 goals game, and Mariano DĂaz as anytime-scorer favourite all point the same direction. Before kick-off, confirm the latest team news and lineups via our live scores centre, and build your slip alongside the banker of the day selection.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Alavés are 2nd in LaLiga with 10 points from 4 games (W3 D1, +7 goal difference); Valencia are 20th with 1 point (D1 L3, -8).
- The hosts have kept 2 clean sheets and concede just 0.33 goals per game â the best defensive record in the division.
- Valencia have scored only once in four league matches (0.25 per game) and have failed to score in 75% of their fixtures.
- Alavés are unbeaten at home this season: 3-0 vs Getafe, 1-0 vs Villarreal and 5-2 vs Osasuna.
- Valencia are missing Diakhaby, Copete, Foulquier, Sadiq and Rioja â a full defensive-and-attacking spine of absentees.
- Mariano DĂaz has 2 goals and 2 assists in 3 appearances; no Valencia player has more than one goal involvement.
- Two of the last three Alavés home league wins over Valencia finished 1-0; four of the last six H2H meetings went under 2.5 goals.
- Quique SĂĄnchez Flores managed Valencia from 2005-2007 and played 272 league games for the club â this fixture is personal.
- European odds: Alavés 2.05, Draw 3.10, Valencia 3.75; Under 2.5 goals 1.62; BTTS No 1.80; Correct score 1-0 at 6.50.
- Prediction markets and statistical models converge: Alavés win probability ~44-51%, Valencia ~21-27%, with the home win the value angle at 2.05.
Conclusion
Deportivo AlavĂ©s versus Valencia CF on 15 September 2026 is a fixture where the table tells the truth. Second hosts twentieth, the league's best defence hosts its most impotent attack, and a settled, motivated squad faces one decimated by injuries and short on confidence. Quique SĂĄnchez Flores has engineered one of the most remarkable early-season turnarounds in LaLiga, and Mendizorroza â where Valencia have lost eight of 19 visits â should be bouncing for this Tuesday night clash. For more fixtures across the division this week, our prediction football tomorrow page covers every card.
Our final score prediction is Deportivo Alavés 1-0 Valencia CF. The best bet is the home win at 2.05 in European odds, supported by under 2.5 goals (1.62), BTTS No (1.80) and the speculative correct-score 1-0 at 6.50. If you prefer lower-variance options, the double chance on Alavés or draw at 1.30, or the full-time prediction markets, offer safer routes into the same thesis. Whichever angle you choose, the data points one way: the Basque fortress holds.
As always, bet with your head, never over your means, and treat this preview as analysis rather than certainty â football's beauty lies in its surprises. Follow the action live, review your staking plan before the 21:00 CET kick-off, and may your slip be green. 18+ only, and please gamble responsibly.
