Venezia vs Udinese: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Wednesday, 04 November 2026 by Steve
Venezia vs Udinese
Serie A Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Gattuso wants to bring ex-Roma star Zaniolo to Lazio amid Udinese salary dispute - Football Italia
It is a meeting of the bottom two in Serie A, and it could hardly be more significant. Venezia welcome Udinese to the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo on Friday, 6 November 2026 for a genuine relegation six-pointer on Matchday 11 of the 2026/27 season, with the hosts sitting 20th on 3 points and the visitors 19th on 5 points after ten rounds. The Lagunari have won just once all season but arrive with genuine momentum after their shock 1-0 home victory over Napoli last month, while the Friulani are in freefall, winless in five league matches and without a goal in their last three. For the latest picks across every league this weekend, check our daily football predictions page, where this fixture headlines Friday night's card.
The backdrop to this clash is one of the most dramatic reversals of fortune in the division. Udinese finished 10th last season under Kosta Runjaic and were tipped to push for Europe, but a horrendous run of results has dragged them into the drop zone with just one win, two draws and seven defeats. Venezia, promoted as Serie B champions, started terribly under Giovanni Stroppa but have transformed since Davide Nicola took charge in mid-October, beating Napoli 1-0 in his first home match in the dugout. The two sides already met in September's Coppa Italia, where Udinese edged a 2-1 win at the Bluenergy Stadium thanks to a Vakoun Bayo brace before Venezia's Richie Sagrado replied. Understanding how recent form guides match outcomes is essential reading before kick-off, and our guide to reading team form explains why the raw table can sometimes be misleading.
The betting market reflects just how tight this bottom-of-the-table battle is expected to be. In European decimal odds, Venezia are narrow home favourites at around 2.17, the draw is priced at roughly 3.60 and an Udinese win is available at about 3.12, with the best prices on the market (2.23, 3.80 and 3.29 respectively) currently found at 1xbet. Those numbers imply roughly a 44% chance of a home win, 26% for the draw and 30% for the away side. With both defences leaking goals and both attacks desperate for confidence, we see real value in backing the home side with conviction. Our model, all the angles and the reasoning behind every pick are laid out below, and if you enjoy accumulator play you can combine this selection with the rest of Friday's card via our hot predictions hub.
Tactical Preview
El Nápoles se estrella con el Venezia de Akor Adams — INSTA⚡DEPORTES
Formation & Key Matchups
Venezia (3-5-2)
Davide Nicola has kept the 3-5-2 flat shape that Venezia used under Stroppa but has injected far more defensive organisation and counter-attacking discipline. The wing-back pairing of Pasquale Mazzocchi and Richie Sagrado provides genuine width, while the midfield trio of Simon Sohm, Gianluca Busio and Antoine Hainaut — with Thorir Helgason rotating in — is built to win second balls and spring direct transitions into Akor Adams and John Yeboah. The Nigerian Adams, Venezia's top scorer with 4 goals, thrives on balls played in behind a high defensive line, and Udinese's makeshift back three is exactly the kind of unit he can exploit. The tactical structure that Nicola has implemented since mid-October mirrors the principles outlined in our analysis of controlling matches tactically, where compactness without the ball and rapid verticality with it decide tight contests.
Udinese (3-4-2-1)
Kosta Runjaic has stuck with a 3-4-2-1 that morphs into a back five out of possession, but injuries have ripped the spine out of his team. With David Alaba (calf), Oumar Solet (muscular) and Alessandro Zanoli all unavailable, the Bianconeri are forced into a patched-up defensive unit featuring Enzo Ebosse, Christian Kabasele and Nicolo Bertola. In midfield, the absence of Idrissa Gueye to an ankle injury has robbed Udinese of their best ball-winner, leaving Sandi Lovric, Lazaros... rather Lazar Samardzic-type creativity absent too, with Jens Ekkelenkamp and Brenner... The creative burden falls on Martin Payero... The creative burden instead falls on Martin Payero... The truth is Udinese's most reliable creators right now are the wide players, Hassane Kamara and Kingsley Ehizibue... The wide pairing of Hassane Kamara and Kingsley Ehizibue must supply Keinan Davis, who leads the line alone. Nicolo Zaniolo operates in the half-spaces when fit, offering the one genuine moment of magic this side possesses. For a deeper look at how Udinese's shape compares with the division's most effective systems, our breakdown of the strongest football formations in the modern game is worth a read.
Critical Vulnerability
Udinese's critical weakness is their left channel, where the makeshift centre-back unit has been dragged apart in the last three games: a 5-2 home defeat to Roma, a 2-0 loss to Milan and a humiliating 3-0 home reverse against Lecce, plus a goalless draw at Parma. They have conceded 12 goals across their last four league matches and have failed to score in their last three. Without Gueye screening, the space between midfield and defence is enormous, and Venezia's 3-5-2 is specifically designed to attack that zone with Busio's line-breaking passes and the dual threat of Adams and Yeboah running off the shoulders of slow centre-backs. If Venezia win the first contact on second balls in the middle third, Udinese's fullbacks will be pinned back and the visitors' already fragile confidence could crack early.
Team News & Squad Status
Venezia 🔴🔴🔴🟢🔴
- Manager: Davide Nicola, appointed in mid-October 2026 after Giovanni Stroppa's dismissal, won his first home game 1-0 against Napoli.
- Top scorer: Akor Adams with 4 league goals; John Yeboah (2 goals) partners him up front.
- Injuries: Bartol Franjić (shoulder, out until early December), Marin Šverko (out until mid-November), Thierry Correia (fitness doubt) and Andrea Adorante (knock) are unavailable.
- Key man: Gianluca Busio leads the team with 2 assists and dictates tempo from midfield.
- Home form: The 1-0 win over Napoli is their only victory, but the Penzo remains a difficult venue with the lagoon crowd right on top of the pitch.
Udinese 🔴🟡🔴🔴🔴
- Manager: Kosta Runjaic is under severe pressure after presiding over a winless run of five league games.
- Goal drought: Udinese have failed to score in their last three Serie A matches and have just 11 goals all season.
- Injuries: David Alaba (calf, out until late November), Oumar Solet (muscular problem), Alessandro Zanoli (out until mid-November), Vakoun Bayo (hamstring, out until mid-November) and Idrissa Gueye (ankle, out long-term, potentially until January) are all sidelined.
- Attack: Keinan Davis leads the line with support from Nicolo Zaniolo and Jens Ekkelenkamp in the pockets.
- Defensive record: The Friulani have shipped 23 goals in 10 games, the second-worst record in the division.
Predicted Lineups
Gianluca Busio diagnosed with thigh strain, no timetable for return - x
| Venezia (3-5-2) | Udinese (3-4-2-1) |
|---|---|
| Filip Stanković (GK) | Maduka Okoye (GK) |
| Redouane Halhal | Enzo Ebosse |
| Juan Jesus | Christian Kabasele |
| Matias Moreno | Nicolo Bertola |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi (RWB) | Kingsley Ehizibue (RWB) |
| Simon Sohm | Lovro... Sandi Lovric |
| Gianluca Busio | Axel Guessand... Jens Ekkelenkamp |
| Antoine Hainaut | Hassane Kamara (LWB) |
| Richie Sagrado (LWB) | Martin Payero |
| John Yeboah | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| Akor Adams | Keinan Davis |
Head-to-Head Record
Udinese have historically had the better of this fixture, winning four of the seven meetings between the sides since Venezia returned to Serie A in 2021, with two Venezia wins and one draw. The most recent encounter came just two months ago in the Coppa Italia, when Udinese won 2-1 at home — Bayo scoring twice either side of Sagrado's opener for the Lagunari. In Serie A, Udinese edged a five-goal thriller 3-2 in February 2025, while Venezia's last home win in this pairing came in October 2024, a 3-2 victory at the Penzo that remains one of the most memorable nights in the club's recent history. Venezia will take heart from that result: they have beaten this opponent at home before, and the current circumstances could hardly be more different from the September cup tie. Our correct score tips page breaks down how head-to-head history feeds into scoreline modelling.
The pattern in this rivalry is striking: the last five meetings have produced 19 goals, an average of 3.8 per game, including two 3-2 thrillers and a 3-0 Udinese win in August 2021. Both fixtures last season were decided by a single goal, and both teams scored in four of the five most recent clashes. That history matters for bettors because, even though Udinese hold the overall edge, the games are almost always tight, entertaining and high-scoring — exactly the profile of a match where backing a home win with goals at both ends makes more sense than a cautious under play. Every one of the last three meetings at the Penzo has featured at least three goals, a trend we expect to continue under the Friday night lights in Venice.
Key Players Comparison
4 goals this season
The Nigerian forward is Venezia's only consistent goal threat, combining physical power with sharp movement in behind. He scored in the Coppa Italia tie between these sides and will fancy his chances against a patched-up Udinese back three missing three senior centre-backs.
2 assists, midfield metronome
The American playmaker leads Venezia's assist charts and is the man who turns defensive recoveries into attacking transitions. Against an Udinese midfield deprived of Idrissa Gueye, Busio's zone 14 occupation could be the single biggest tactical factor in the match.
The one-man spark
When Udinese have created anything in recent weeks, Zaniolo has been at the heart of it. His ability to drive from the half-spaces and shoot from range is the visitors' most realistic route to a goal at the Penzo, and he will target the space behind Venezia's wing-backs.
The contrast between the two sides' key men tells the story of the season. Venezia's threat is collective and direct: Adams and Yeboah stretch defences vertically while Busio and Sohm feed them early, a simple but effective formula that produced the win over Napoli and a competitive showing at Atalanta. Udinese, by contrast, are reliant on individual inspiration — Zaniolo's flashes of brilliance or Keinan Davis's hold-up play — because the structural cohesion that took them to 10th last season has evaporated with five senior players in the treatment room. Interestingly, Udinese's Coppa Italia hero from September, Vakoun Bayo, is out with a hamstring injury, removing the one striker who has consistently troubled Venezia. In games between evenly matched strugglers, the side with the clearer tactical identity and the fitter, more in-form attackers usually prevails, which is precisely the edge Venezia hold here. For more selections built around in-form individuals, see our banker of the day picks.
The Managers
Davide Nicola (Venezia)
Nicola is Serie A's quintessential firefighter, a manager whose entire reputation is built on engineering great escapes — most famously keeping Crotone up against all odds and repeating the trick in various guises since. Venezia turned to him in mid-October with the club bottom of the table and winless, and his impact was immediate: a disciplined, high-energy performance in a 1-0 home win over Napoli that remains their only victory of the campaign. His message to the squad has been about restoring belief and defensive pride, and the fact that Venezia kept a clean sheet against Napoli shows the organisational work is already taking root.
What Nicola gives this team is clarity. Everyone knows their role in the 3-5-2, the distances between the lines are shorter, and the wing-backs are freed to attack knowing the back three is protected. Against Udinese, he will demand exactly the same recipe: start fast, use the crowd, win the midfield battle and let Adams attack the channels early and often. A win on Friday would lift Venezia to within touching distance of Udinese and transform the psychological landscape at the bottom of the table.
Kosta Runjaic (Udinese)
Runjaic's situation could hardly be more different. The German coach guided Udinese to a creditable 10th-place finish last season and was backed in the summer, but a horror start to 2026/27 — one win, two draws and seven defeats from ten games — has transformed him from a man building a project into one fighting for his job. The timing is cruel: his team's collapse has coincided with a brutal injury list that has removed Alaba, Solet, Zanoli, Gueye and Bayo from the spine of his side, leaving him patching together lineups each week.
The concern for Udinese is not just results but direction. They have failed to score in three consecutive league games, conceded 12 in their last four, and their away record — winless on the road since the opening weeks of the season — offers little comfort at one of Italy's most atmospheric small grounds. Runjaic needs his senior figures, Kabasele, Lovric, Zaniolo and Davis, to drag the team out of its slump, and he needs it fast. Defeat in Venice would leave Udinese adrift at the bottom end of the table and would crank the pressure on the coach to boiling point ahead of the November international break.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 2.17 (best price 2.23 at 1xbet — European decimal format)
Everything points to the hosts: home advantage at a ground where they have already beaten Napoli, a new-manager bounce under Davide Nicola, a near-fully-fit squad, and an opponent missing five senior players and without a win in five. The market makes Venezia favourites at around 2.17, but even at that price we believe the true probability of a home win is closer to 50%. This is the cornerstone selection of our card. If you prefer a safer angle on the same view, our draw no bet predictions remove the stalemate risk entirely, and you can learn how European pricing works in our 1X2 betting guide.
Odds: 1.62
Five of the last seven meetings between these sides have produced three or more goals, and both defences are among the leakiest in Serie A — Udinese have conceded 23 in 10 games while Venezia have let in 24. Add Udinese's desperation (they must chase the game at some stage) and Venezia's counter-attacking threat, and 1.62 for over 2.5 goals looks generous. Our full reasoning on totals betting is covered in the over/under prediction section, while the over/under betting guide explains the market for newcomers.
Odds: 1.62
Udinese's goal drought is a concern, but their overall season numbers (60% of their matches have seen both teams score) and Venezia's soft defensive record suggest the visitors will find at least one opening — Zaniolo or Davis against a Venezia back three that has kept just one clean sheet in ten league games. BTTS has landed in three of the last four H2H meetings at the Penzo. For alternative angles on this market, visit our GG/NG tips page.
Odds: ~2.60 (approximate anytime-goalscorer price)
Venezia's top scorer with 4 goals faces a defence missing Alaba, Solet and Zanoli, with a stand-in unit that has shipped 12 goals in four games. He scored against this opponent in the Coppa Italia two months ago and, with Udinese's defensive line set to drop deep, Adams's runs in behind and aerial threat from Mazzocchi and Sagrado deliveries give him multiple routes to goal. Pairing this with a Venezia win creates an attractive combo for those who like combo predictions.
Odds: ~13.00 (approximate correct-score price)
Our model's headline prediction is a 3-1 home victory, reflecting Venezia's attacking improvement under Nicola, Udinese's defensive decimation and the high-scoring history of this fixture. Correct score is the highest-variance market in football betting, so keep stakes small and treat this strictly as a fun long shot. You can find more scoreline ideas on our correct score tips page, and remember the golden rules of staking outlined in our piece on common football betting mistakes.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We predict a 3-1 home victory for Venezia, and the case is compelling on almost every axis. The Lagunari are the side with momentum — the new-manager effect under Davide Nicola delivered a statement win over Napoli, and their underlying performance levels since the coaching change (competitive away at Atalanta, narrow defeats to Genoa and Inter, a tight loss at high-flying Como) are far better than a 20th-place standing suggests. The Penzo crowd, squeezed tight around one of Europe's most picturesque pitches, will make Friday night an uncomfortable experience for a Udinese side that has lost its last four league games and failed to score in its last three.
Udinese's situation is close to a worst-case scenario: five first-team players injured, no goals in three matches, the second-worst defensive record in the division and a manager under mounting pressure. Even their psychological edge from winning the September Coppa Italia meeting is weakened by the absence of that game's two-goal hero, Vakoun Bayo. We expect Venezia to score early through Adams or Yeboah, for Udinese to respond through Zaniolo's individual quality at some point in the second half, but for the hosts' superior energy, structure and bench to pull away late on — two further goals sealing a 3-1 scoreline that would lift them off the foot of the table and drag Udinese deeper into crisis. For single-market players who prefer a straight win call, our single bet page has you covered.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Bottom-two battle: 20th-placed Venezia (3 points) host 19th-placed Udinese (5 points) in a genuine six-pointer on Matchday 11 of the 2026/27 Serie A season.
- New manager bounce: Davide Nicola took over in mid-October and won his first home match 1-0 against Napoli — Venezia's only victory of the campaign to date.
- Udinese in freefall: The Friulani are winless in five league games (one draw, four defeats) and have failed to score in their last three outings.
- Injury crisis: Udinese are without David Alaba, Oumar Solet, Alessandro Zanoli, Vakoun Bayo and Idrissa Gueye; Venezia miss Bartol Franjić, Marin Šverko, Thierry Correia and Andrea Adorante.
- H2H trend: Four of the last five meetings between these clubs produced over 2.5 goals, including two 3-2 classics and Udinese's 2-1 Coppa Italia win in September 2026.
- European odds: Venezia 2.17, Draw 3.60, Udinese 3.12 — the hosts are favourites at home for the first time in this fixture since October 2024.
- Top scorers: Akor Adams leads Venezia with 4 goals; Udinese's goals are spread thinly, with Keinan Davis their most reliable finisher.
- Defensive fragility: Both teams sit in the bottom three for goals conceded (Venezia 24, Udinese 23 in 10 games), making clean sheets unlikely for either side.
- Historical edge: Udinese have won four of the seven all-time meetings, but Venezia won the most recent home league encounter 3-2 in October 2024.
- Pressure points: Defeat would leave Udinese manager Kosta Runjaic fighting for his job, while a win would lift Venezia to within two points of their Friday-night rivals.
Conclusion
Venezia versus Udinese is the defining fixture of Serie A's bottom end this weekend: a Friday-night relegation shootout between the league's two worst-performing teams, both desperate, both wounded, but only one of them moving in the right direction. The numbers tell a clear story. Venezia have a new manager whose methods have already produced a win over a top-eight side, a near-full-strength squad and home advantage. Udinese have no goals in three games, five injured first-teamers, the division's second-leakiest defence and a coach whose authority is visibly fraying. In a fixture where fine margins decide everything, those margins all tilt toward the lagoon.
Our prediction is a 3-1 Venezia victory, anchored by the best pick of Venezia to win at European odds of 2.17, with over 2.5 goals (1.62), both teams to score (1.62) and an Akor Adams anytime-goalscorer play providing the supporting value. High-scoring history, defensive decimation on the Udinese side and the Napoli result all point the same way. If you are building a weekend slip, this fixture pairs naturally with the rest of Friday and Saturday's card — browse our tomorrow's football predictions for the follow-up fixtures, and consider rounding out your weekend with selections from our sure win predictions and win accumulator pages.
Whatever you decide, keep stakes sensible and treat this as entertainment first. Kick-off is at 20:45 CET on Friday, 6 November 2026 at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, live on DAZN in Italy and on Paramount+, CBS Sports Network and Peacock in the United States. Expect goals, expect noise, and expect Venezia to take a giant stride toward safety — with a 3-1 scoreline our confident call on a night that could reshape the relegation battle at both ends of the bottom three. For broader betting education before you place anything, our beginner's guide to reading football odds is essential reading.