Sturm Graz vs Celje: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Tuesday, 03 November 2026 by Steve
Sturm Graz vs Celje
UEFA Europa League Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
William Bøving sold to Sturm Graz | F.C. København
Two of the Europa League's most intriguing league-phase stories collide under the lights in Graz on Thursday evening, as SK Sturm Graz welcome NK Celje to the Merkur Arena for a fixture dripping with narrative intrigue. This is matchday four of the 2026/27 UEFA Europa League league phase, and it carries genuine weight for both camps: Sturm Graz are parked on four points from their opening three fixtures — a record of one win, one draw and one defeat — and know that a home victory against the Slovenian champions would catapult them into the upper reaches of the table with three matchdays remaining. Celje, by contrast, are still searching for their first win of the campaign after a bruising start that saw them beaten by Bayer Leverkusen and Omonia Nicosia either side of a spirited 2-2 home draw with Red Bull Salzburg. If you enjoy building your midweek coupon around European fixtures, our tomorrow football predictions page covers every angle of this one alongside the rest of the matchday four card.
The Austrian Bundesliga runners-up come into this one in reasonably solid nick across all competitions, despite a couple of frustrating domestic draws in recent weeks. Fabio Ingolitsch's side followed up a thumping 6-1 derby demolition of Grazer AK with a statement 1-0 home win over Olympique Marseille in Europe, before slipping to a chastening 3-0 defeat away to Bournemouth — a result that exposed some of the defensive frailty that has crept into Sturm's game when forced to defend deep against pace. Back-to-back draws against SV Ried (2-2) and Wolfsberger AC (1-1) suggest a team still fine-tuning its attacking chemistry, but the underlying numbers remain strong: Sturm are averaging close to two goals per game across their last ten outings and have kept three clean sheets in that span. For a deeper dive into how to read runs like this, check our guide on how football form guides predict the next match.
Celje's European campaign tells a different story. The Grofje arrived in the league phase as Slovenian champions full of optimism, but a 2-0 reverse in Leverkusen and a 3-0 home defeat to Omonia Nicosia left Zoran Zeljković's men rooted to the foot of the table before they finally showed their quality in a 2-2 thriller with Salzburg. Domestically, Celje have been harder to beat than their European record suggests — a 0-0 stalemate at Maribor, a 1-1 draw at Olimpija and a 4-0 statement win over Nafta Lendava form part of a five-match unbeaten domestic run. The Slovenians are organised, dangerous in transition and absolutely capable of nicking something in Graz, but their away record in Europe remains a genuine concern. With European markets pricing a Sturm victory at around 1.55 — roughly a 62 percent implied probability — the home side are clear favourites, and our European 1X2 betting analysis guide explains exactly why the market has landed where it has for this fixture.
Tactical Preview
Kučys with a goal and assist helps Celje reach the Conference League quarter-final · Baltic Football News
Formation & Key Matchups
Sturm Graz 4-2-3-1
Fabio Ingolitsch has settled Sturm into a disciplined 4-2-3-1 that flexes into a 4-4-2 without the ball. The double pivot — anchored by Tomi Horvat's ball-winning and Kevin Boma's distribution — gives the Blackies a stable platform from which to launch quick vertical attacks into the half-spaces. Width comes from the dynamic wing pairing, with William Bøving's direct running on the left a constant outlet, while the right side leans on overlapping energy from the full-back. Up front, Karim Konate's physicality and movement between centre-backs will be central to everything Sturm create; his late runs into the box are tailor-made for exploiting a Celje back line that has conceded seven goals in three European matches. The Austrian side's 34-38 percent average possession in Europe is a deliberate choice — Sturm are comfortable ceding the ball and striking through turnovers, a tactical identity explored in our piece on football tactics for controlling a match.
Celje 4-2-3-1
Zoran Zeljković, in charge since mid-September, has kept Celje in a compact 4-2-3-1 that morphs into a 4-4-1-1 when defending the box. The Slovenians are possession-light in Europe — expect them to sit in a mid-block, deny the half-space penetrations, and spring forward through their pacy wide attackers when the ball turns over. Their 2-2 draw with Salzburg showed the blueprint working at its best: stay structurally sound for 70 minutes, then capitalise on set pieces and transitions. The problem is that this approach demands near-perfect concentration for the full 90, and concentration has been exactly what has failed them in defeats to Leverkusen and Omonia. Away from home in Graz, Zeljković may opt for an even more conservative 5-4-1, mirroring the deep-block that frustrated Sturm's rhythm in their recent domestic draws.
Critical Vulnerability
The decisive battleground will be Sturm's right flank against Celje's left-sided transition defence. Sturm overload that side with the full-back and winger combining against a full-back who is asked to defend large spaces with limited midfield cover — and Celje's away record this season (two wins in their last ten on the road) suggests they struggle precisely when pinned back for long spells. Conversely, Sturm's own exposure is in behind their advancing full-backs: the 3-0 loss in Bournemouth showed how quickly Ingolitsch's side can be carved open when the first press is beaten. If Celje can survive the first 25 minutes, the space on the counter could become very real. For bettors weighing both teams' scoring potential, our BTTS (GG/NG) predictions page is the natural companion read for this fixture.
Team News & Squad Status
Sturm Graz 🔥
- Goalkeeper Daniil Khudyakov is currently sidelined with an injury, forcing Ingolitsch into a decision between his understudies in the Europa League.
- Attacking midfielder Otar Kiteishvili misses out through injury — a significant creative absence in the number ten zone.
- Forwards Gizo Mamageishvili and Nelson Weiper are both unavailable, trimming the options out wide and through the middle.
- Midfielder Jürgen Heil is also on the injury list, further testing squad depth in the engine room.
- Karim Konate returned from illness but will be assessed late; if declared fit he starts as the focal point of the attack.
- Recent absentees Enrique Aguilar (thigh), Justin Omoregie (ankle) and Nikolas Veratschnig (knee) remain on the treatment table.
Celje ⚠️
- Celje report no fresh suspensions for the trip to Graz, giving Zeljković a near-full deck to choose from.
- The Slovenian champions are expected to name their strongest available XI after the morale-boosting 4-0 league win over Nafta Lendava.
- Veteran defensive organisation has been prioritised in Europe, with the back four that held Salzburg to a draw likely retained.
- The front line will lean on pace in transition, with the wide attackers tasked at exploiting Sturm's high full-back positions.
- Set pieces remain Celje's most reliable route to goal — a major threat against a Sturm side that has conceded from dead balls this season.
Predicted Lineups
Valletta FC sign Slovenian winger Luka Susnjara
| Sturm Graz 4-2-3-1 | Celje 4-2-3-1 |
|---|---|
| GK: Sebastian Gessl / understudy (Khudyakov out) | GK: Zan-Luk Leban |
| RB: Jusuf Gazibegović | RB: Žan Karničnik |
| CB: Gregory Wüthrich | CB: Jon Šporn |
| CB: Arjan Malić | CB: Damjan Vokić |
| LB: Max Johnston | LB: Nino Kouter |
| DM: Tomi Horvat | DM: Mario Kvesić |
| DM: Kevin Boma | DM: Mark Zabukovnik |
| RW: Seedy Jatta | RW: Amar Begić |
| AM: substitute creator (Kiteishvili out) | AM: Luka Šušnjara |
| LW: William Bøving | LW: pace option off the bench |
| ST: Karim Konate (if passed fit) | ST: Armandas Kučys |
Head-to-Head Record
Red Bull Salzburg holt Stürmertalent Karim Konaté | Transfermarkt
Remarkably for two clubs with such rich domestic histories, this will be the very first competitive meeting between Sturm Graz and NK Celje. There is no head-to-head baggage, no revenge narrative, no historical score to settle — just two proud clubs from neighbouring Alpine footballing nations meeting on the European stage for the first time. Austria and Slovenia share a border, a language family and a footballing culture, yet their champions have somehow never crossed paths in UEFA competition until this 2026/27 Europa League league phase. That novelty adds an extra layer of intrigue to an already fascinating tactical puzzle, and it means both managers will be leaning heavily on video analysis rather than past experience when preparing their game plans.
While there is no direct history between the clubs, both sides arrive with useful reference points. Sturm's 1-0 win over Marseille demonstrated they can grind out European results at the Merkur Arena, while the 3-0 defeat in Bournemouth is a reminder of what happens when their structure cracks. Celje's 2-2 draw with Salzburg — another Austrian giant — is arguably the most relevant form line here: Zeljković's men proved they can go toe-to-toe with elite Austrian pressing for long stretches. Sturm, however, are a more clinical version of that Salzburg template right now, and they will expect their domestic familiarity with Slovenian opposition's style to count for something on the night. Bettors who like to study trends before placing wagers can find more fixtures to compare on our full-time prediction hub, which tracks outcomes across all of Europe's major club competitions.
Key Players Comparison
Karim Konate (Sturm Graz)
The powerhouse forward is Sturm's spearhead and chief penalty-box menace. His hold-up play brings Bøving and Jatta into the game, and his aerial presence against Celje's zonal marking on crosses could be the single biggest mismatch of the evening. If he shakes off his recent illness, back him to be heavily involved in at least one goal.
William Bøving (Sturm Graz)
The Danish winger is Sturm's most reliable source of one-v-one spark. Direct, brave and productive off the dribble, Bøving thrives against deep blocks — exactly what Celje are expected to deploy. He is the most likely assist source for the home side on Thursday.
Luka Šušnjara (Celje)
Celje's creative hub operates between the lines and is the man tasked with converting defensive clearances into attacking transitions. Sturm's double pivot must screen him effectively, because if Šušnjara gets time on the half-turn, Celje's counter-attacking threat becomes very real indeed.
Armandas Kučys (Celje)
The Lithuanian forward leads Celje's line and carries their best hopes of a precious away goal. Physical and selfless, Kučys battles for everything, and his ability to draw fouls around the box feeds Celje's dangerous set-piece routines.
The individual duel that could decide the match is Konate against Celje's centre-back pairing. The Slovenians have conceded seven goals in three European matches, and a large share of those have come from balls played into the channel between centre-back and full-back — precisely the zones Konate hunts in. On the flip side, Sturm's makeshift goalkeeper situation (with Khudyakov injured) gives Celje a sliver of hope from distance and set plays. It is this tension — Sturm's superior firepower against Celje's stubbornness — that shapes our entire betting outlook, and punters building multi-leg wagers should cross-reference our combo predictions and acca tips pages before finalising any slip for matchday four.
The Managers
Fabio Ingolitsch (Sturm Graz)
Appointed in 2025, Ingolitsch has quietly built one of the most tactically coherent projects in Austrian football. His Sturm side are defined by verticality without recklessness — a team that presses with clear triggers, defends in a compact 4-4-2, and attacks with genuine width. The Europa League has tested his squad's depth, with injuries to Kiteishvili, Khudyakov and others stretching resources, but Ingolitsch's response to the Bournemouth defeat — a controlled 1-0 win over Marseille — underlined his capacity to learn and adapt mid-competition.
His in-game management has been a particular strength this season. Ingolitsch is not afraid to change shape at half-time, and his substitutions have directly influenced results in both the Bundesliga and Europe. Against Celje, his biggest call will be tactical patience: Sturm's recent domestic draws came against deep blocks, and Ingolitsch must find a way to unlock one without over-committing and leaving his side exposed to the counter-attack that cost them so dearly in England.
Zoran Zeljković (Celje)
Zeljković took the Celje reins in mid-September and inherited a European campaign in danger of drifting. His impact was immediate — the draw with Salzburg was arguably Celje's most complete European performance of the season, and the subsequent 4-0 league win suggested a squad rediscovering its confidence. The Slovenian coach favours structure over improvisation, demanding strict positional discipline and quick, collective pressing when the moment is right.
The challenge in Graz is one of ambition versus survival. Zeljković knows his side cannot out-attack Sturm at the Merkur Arena, but he also knows that another defeat would leave Celje needing a near-perfect finish to the league phase to avoid an early exit. Expect a pragmatist's approach: frustrate, stay compact, and trust that set pieces or one swift counter can steal a result. How long he waits before introducing more attacking weapons from the bench may define his side's evening.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 1.55
The market gives Sturm roughly a 62 percent chance of victory, and we believe that is if anything conservative. The Blackies are unbeaten at home in Europe this season, have beaten stronger opposition than Celje already, and face a side that has lost both of its away European fixtures this campaign without scoring in either. Sturm's superior individual quality in the final third — even with injuries — should tell over ninety minutes. At 1.55 this is the anchor bet of matchday four and a staple for any teams to win today shortlist.
Odds: 1.70
Sturm's last ten matches have produced an average of nearly three goals per game, and their recent domestic form — 2-2 and 1-1 draws either side of a 6-1 rout — points to open, end-to-end football. Celje's European matches have also trended high-scoring: seven goals conceded in three games, plus a 2-2 thriller with Salzburg. With Sturm needing the win and Celje dangerous on the break, we expect goals at both ends. Our over/under predictions hub and the guide to how over/under betting works both support the over at this price.
Odds: 1.85
This is the natural companion to the goals angle. Celje have scored in two of their three European matches and showed against Salzburg that they can hurt organised defences. Meanwhile, Sturm's full-backs push high and their stand-in goalkeeper situation adds a layer of vulnerability. Celje scoring exactly once — as our 3-1 prediction implies — makes BTTS a logical and well-priced selection. See our dedicated GG/NG tips page for the full reasoning on both-teams-to-score markets.
Odds: 13.00
Our model lands on a 3-1 home win as the single most likely scoreline. Sturm's attacking depth should eventually overwhelm a Celje defence conceding more than two goals per game in Europe, while Celje's set-piece threat and counter-attacking pace make a consolation goal more likely than a clean sheet. The 3-1 correct score at around 13.00 offers genuine value for small-stake punters. For more scoreline-focused angles, our correct score tips page breaks down the methodology in detail.
Odds: 2.40
For those chasing a bigger price, combining Sturm's win with a goal from their focal striker is the shrewd play. Konate's movement in the channels is tailor-made for this fixture, and he will relish the physical battle with Celje's centre-backs. The anytime-scorer market alone prices him attractively, and doubling it with the home victory lifts the return to a rewarding level. Risk-averse punters who prefer insurance can instead explore draw no bet predictions or the double chance market as safer wrappers around the same outcome.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We predict a 3-1 home victory for Sturm Graz. The logic is straightforward: Sturm are the stronger side in every phase, are playing at home in front of one of Austria's most passionate European crowds, and possess the attacking variety — Konate's power, Bøving's dribbling, Jatta's directness — to break down a Celje block that has already leaked seven goals in three European outings. Celje's away form in this competition (two defeats, zero goals scored) is the single most damning statistic on the board, and while their 2-2 draw with Salzburg proved they can compete with Austrian opposition, Sturm at the Merkur Arena are a sterner test than a Salzburg side that conceded twice at Celje's stadium.
The one goal we give Celje comes from their genuine dead-ball threat and the enforced changes in Sturm's goalkeeping department. Zeljković's men will have spells — particularly in the middle third — where Sturm's rhythm stutters, and set pieces are the great equaliser for underdogs in the Europa League. But over the full ninety minutes, the gulf in squad quality, home advantage and the psychological weight of Celje's winless European campaign all point one way. Expect Sturm to lead by a single goal at half-time before pulling away in the final half hour as Celje's legs and discipline fade. Fans tracking the result live can follow along via our live scores section on the night.
Key Insights & Statistics
- First ever competitive meeting: Sturm Graz and NK Celje have never faced each other in UEFA competition before this 2026/27 Europa League league phase fixture.
- Celje have lost both of their away European matches this season (0-2 at Leverkusen) without scoring a single goal on the road in the competition.
- Sturm Graz are unbeaten at home in the Europa League this season, including a 1-0 victory over Marseille on matchday three.
- Sturm's last ten matches across all competitions average nearly three goals per game (1.5 scored, 1.4 conceded per match), and six of those ten produced three or more goals.
- Celje have conceded seven goals in three European matches — the leakiest defensive record remaining in the lower half of the league-phase table.
- Sturm's injury list is substantial: Khudyakov, Kiteishvili, Mamageishvili, Weiper and Heil are all unavailable, with Konate only recently back from illness.
- Karim Konate's hold-up play and channel runs are the key tactical mismatch against a Celje defence vulnerable to balls in behind.
- The market prices Sturm at roughly 62 percent to win (1.55), the draw near 21 percent (4.20), and a Celje upset at around 17 percent (6.50).
- Celje are unbeaten in five domestic matches (W1 D4 across their recent run) but have translated none of that resilience into European wins.
- Both managers favour structured, transition-based football — the difference is that Sturm execute theirs with higher individual quality and home-crowd momentum.
Conclusion
Everything about this fixture points towards a Sturm Graz victory. The Austrian side hold the home advantage, the deeper squad, the stronger European pedigree this season, and the market's confidence. Celje arrive winless in the competition, scoreless away from home in Europe, and carrying the psychological burden of a campaign that has already put their manager under early pressure. The Slovenians are organised and dangerous from set pieces — nobody should expect a stroll — but organisation alone has not been enough for them against opposition of Sturm's calibre.
Our final prediction of 3-1 reflects both the quality gap and the reality that Sturm are not flawless: their stand-in goalkeeping situation, missing creative fulcrum in Kiteishvili, and occasional defensive lapses when chasing games all leave the door slightly ajar for a Celje consolation. But across ninety minutes at the Merkur Arena, the Blackies should have far too much firepower. The best pick is Sturm to win at 1.55, the value angle is over 2.5 goals at 1.70, and for those dreaming bigger, the 3-1 correct score at 13.00 is our headline play of matchday four.
Before placing any wager, remember to shop around for the best available odds, stake only what you can comfortably afford to lose, and treat every prediction — ours included — as informed opinion rather than certainty. For more analysis across the entire matchday four card, bookmark our hot predictions page, check the banker of the day for the safest single on the board, and build your slip with the help of our win accumulator and best bets for today selections. And if you want the essential background on the competition itself, our explainer on what the Europa League is covers the format, the stakes and the road to the final. Enjoy the match — and gamble responsibly.
