Hull vs Everton: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Friday, 09 October 2026 by Steve
Hull City vs Everton Prediction & Betting Tips – 11 October 2026
England - Premier League Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Everton news: Jack Grealish named August Premier League player of the month - BBC Sport
Newly-promoted Hull City welcome Everton to the MKM Stadium on Sunday afternoon in one of the most intriguing fixtures of Premier League Matchweek 6. The stakes could hardly be tighter: Hull sit eighth in the table on eight points, while David Moyes' Everton are one place and one point above them in seventh – and, remarkably, the Toffees remain unbeaten across all competitions this season (W2 D3 in the league, plus a Carabao Cup win over Wolves). For a club that survived the final day of last season, Everton's obdurate start has been one of the stories of the early campaign, and you can compare how the market prices similar tight contests in our football predictions for today and Premier League odds analysis.
The Tigers' own start has been nothing short of extraordinary. Sergej Jakirović's side opened the season with a stunning 2-0 home win over Manchester United – the Bosnian becoming the first manager from his country to win a Premier League match – followed by a 1-0 victory at Coventry, a 0-0 draw with Aston Villa and a hard-earned 2-2 at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea. A narrow 2-1 defeat at Newcastle before the international break ended a proud unbeaten run, but Hull are still unbeaten at home in the league with two clean sheets, having conceded just twice in their four top-flight matches. For more context on how promoted sides fare in these tight, low-margin games, see our previous Hull City preview and the tactical trends explored in our evolution of football tactics feature.
What shapes this contest above all is symmetry. Both teams are built on defensive organisation rather than attacking flair: Hull have kept three clean sheets (joint-most in the division) and Everton have matched that tally while conceding only three goals all season. Everton's matches have averaged a league-low 1.80 goals, and their last two outings produced identical 1-0 scorelines (0-0 at Tottenham, 1-0 over Ipswich). This has all the hallmarks of a classic "first goal wins" affair, and our full assessment – including the correct score call – is backed up in our over/under prediction hub and the correct score tips page.
Tactical Preview
Oli McBurnie: Hull City striker an important leader, says Sergej Jakirovic - BBC Sport
Formation & Key Matchups
Hull City 3-4-3
Jakirović has stuck religiously to a back three since arriving in England in the summer of 2025. The wing-backs, captain Lewie Coyle on the right and Ryan Giles on the left, provide essentially all of Hull's width, while the front three of Mohamed Belloumi, Oli McBurnie and Miles Thomas press aggressively and attack the half-spaces. The double pivot of Matt Crooks and Regan Slater has been disciplined and positionally sound, shielding a back three that has conceded the fewest expected goals of any promoted side. The trade-off is clear: Hull average only 32% possession, the lowest in the league, and create relatively little – just 1.06 expected goals per game – so set-pieces and transitions carry enormous weight. Our deep dive into modern tactical evolution explains why possession-light 3-4-3 systems like this one are thriving again in 2026.
Everton 4-2-3-1
David Moyes has Everton operating in his classic image: a deep, compact 4-2-3-1 that cedes the ball (43% possession on average) and defends the box ferociously. James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite form arguably the most in-form centre-back partnership outside the traditional top six, with Jordan Pickford (83% save percentage) behind them. In front, James Garner and Joe Armstrong screen the back line, while Jack Grealish – enjoying a genuine renaissance on Merseyside – and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall supply moments of quality for lone striker Thierno Barry, whose first-half winner against Ipswich before the break was his third of the campaign. Everton's issue is chance creation (1.47 xG per game is solid but unspectacular), and their wide areas are where games are won and lost for them. You can read more about how Moyes' sides control wide channels in our Tottenham vs Everton preview.
Critical Vulnerability
Both midfields lack control. Hull's double pivot is industrious but not progressive, and Everton's midfield has been described this season as "disjointed" against teams that press through the middle. The decisive zone may actually be the flanks: Everton have more quality in wide areas, but Hull's wing-back system naturally creates 2v1 situations against a back four. Everton are also winless in their last seven Premier League away matches (D4 L3) – a psychological hurdle as much as a tactical one – and their last away win came at Newcastle back in February. For bettors weighing these competing weaknesses, our double chance predictions and draw no bet predictions pages offer alternative ways to play a game this tight.
Team News & Squad Status
Hull City ❌🟨❌🟨✅
- Out: Jack Butland (GK, injury), Charlie Hughes (injury), Hidemasa Morita (injury), Eliot Matazo (injury), Darko Gyabi (injury), Ilyas Ansah (injury), Tim Iroegbunam (injury)
- Doubtful: Elliot Stroud (withdrew from Sweden duty during the international break), Nobel Mendy (injury), Matt Targett (fitness)
- The injury list is long, but the spine has survived: Tzolakis, Ajayi, Egan, Coyle, Crooks and McBurnie are all expected to start
- New signing Abdoulaye Touré's minutes are being managed carefully after his summer arrival
Everton ✅🟨🟨🟨✅
- Doubtful: Vitaliy Mykolenko (picked up an injury on international duty with Ukraine), Christian Nørgaard (working back to full fitness), Merlin Röhl (missed the Ipswich game)
- Nørgaard returned to training this week and could feature off the bench – a major boost for midfield control
- Thierno Barry is Everton's only recognised first-team striker and will lead the line again after his winner against Ipswich
- Jack Grealish is fit and in form; Pickford, Tarkowski and Branthwaite anchor an unchanged defensive unit
Predicted Lineups
Mohamed Belloumi
| Hull City 3-4-3 | Everton 4-2-3-1 |
|---|---|
| GK: Konstantinos Tzolakis | GK: Jordan Pickford |
| CB: Semi Ajayi | RB: Jake O'Brien |
| CB: John Egan | CB: James Tarkowski |
| CB: Finley Herrington | CB: Jarrad Branthwaite |
| RWB: Lewie Coyle (c) | LB: Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| CM: Matt Crooks | DM: James Garner |
| CM: Regan Slater | DM: Joe Armstrong |
| LWB: Ryan Giles | RAM: Tyler George |
| RW: Mohamed Belloumi | AM: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| ST: Oli McBurnie | LAM: Jack Grealish |
| LW: Miles Thomas | ST: Thierno Barry |
Head-to-Head Record
Jordan Pickford: Everton goalkeeper set for talks over new contract - BBC Sport
These sides have a surprisingly rich Premier League history despite Hull's nine-year absence from the top flight. Everton have dominated the fixture overall, winning five of the ten league meetings with three draws and two Hull victories. The Tigers' two wins both came at the MKM Stadium – a 2-0 triumph in January 2015 and a 2-2 draw in December 2016 meaning Hull are actually unbeaten in their last two home league games against the Toffees. The most recent Premier League meeting was a chastening one for Hull, however: a 4-0 Everton win at Goodison Park in March 2017, while Everton's 5-1 victory in March 2010 remains the biggest win in the fixture's history. For a broader view of how Everton fare against similar structured opposition, check our Everton vs Sunderland preview and the Crystal Palace vs Everton preview.
Recent cup history adds spice: Everton edged a five-goal FA Cup thriller at the MKM Stadium 3-2 in recent years, a reminder that this fixture tends to produce goals in knockout competition even when league meetings are tight. Interestingly, Sunday football has not been kind to the hosts historically – Hull have won only five of their 27 Premier League games played on a Sunday (D5 L17), with their last such victory coming against Southampton in November 2016. That quirk is worth bearing in mind when studying our half-time/full-time betting guide for this match.
Key Players Comparison
The playoff-final hero who sent Hull up with a 95th-minute winner against Middlesbrough remains the focal point of the attack. Physical, relentless and clinical in the air – exactly the profile to trouble Tarkowski and Branthwaite from crosses and set-plays.
Enjoying the most productive spell of his Everton career, Grealish is the one player on the pitch capable of unlocking a deep block with a single pass or carry. His duel with Hull's wing-backs will be pivotal.
England's number one has an 83% save percentage this season and has kept three clean sheets. In a game likely to be decided by one or two moments, Pickford is Everton's insurance policy.
The Algerian winger has been Hull's most dangerous creator; his curling effort against Aston Villa rattled the crossbar in the 0-0 draw. Everton's left side must deny him space to cut inside.
The individual battles paint a clear picture: McBurnie versus the Everton centre-backs is a genuine 50-50 contest given Hull's set-piece threat – the Tigers' most likely route to a goal, as one prediction outlet noted this week. But in Grealish and Dewsbury-Hall, Everton possess more guile between the lines than anyone Hull have faced since the opening weekend. The difference in squad depth is also stark: Jakirović has ten senior players unavailable, while Moyes is close to a full-strength pool. In tight Premier League games, that depth of quality usually tells – which is why our verdict sides with the visitors. For daily angles on matchups like these, browse our hot predictions and bet of the day selections.
The Managers
Sergej Jakirović
The 49-year-old Bosnian has been the revelation of the Premier League season so far. Appointed in June 2025, Jakirović won promotion via the Championship play-offs in his first campaign – the 1-0 Wembley win over Middlesbrough sealed by McBurnie's stoppage-time strike – and was rewarded with a new two-year contract in September 2026 after opening the Premier League season with back-to-back wins and no goals conceded, earning him the August Manager of the Month award.
His CV is decorated across the Balkans: a Bosnian league title with Zrinjski Mostar, a Croatian league-and-cup double with Dinamo Zagreb, and a reputation as a meticulous defensive organiser. He has been characteristically grounded this week, insisting the target remains 38-40 points and praising his side's resilience at Stamford Bridge. Whether he can adapt his low-block game plan when chasing a match – as he had to unsuccessfully at Newcastle – remains the open question.
David Moyes
Back at Goodison Park for a second spell, Moyes has silenced the sceptics with an unbeaten start to 2026/27 despite frustration over the club's summer transfer business. The Scot's formula is familiar and effective: defensive structure first, wide overloads second, and an unshakeable siege mentality that has carried Everton through tricky away fixtures at Tottenham and Bournemouth already this season.
Moyes knows this fixture well from his first spell – he was in charge for the 4-0 win in March 2017 and the 2-0 defeat in 2015 – and his sides have historically been difficult for promoted teams to break down. The challenge now is ending a seven-game winless Premier League away run stretching back to February. With Chelsea at home and a trip to Arsenal looming in a brutal October schedule, Moyes will view the MKM Stadium as a genuine opportunity to bank three points before the fixtures turn nasty. Our guide to common football betting mistakes is worth reading before backing any manager-led narrative this weekend.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 1.65
The statistics are overwhelming. Everton's matches have averaged 1.80 goals per game – the joint-lowest in the Premier League – and Hull's have averaged just 2.00. Both teams have kept three clean sheets (joint-most in the division), Everton have kept clean sheets in their last two matches, and Hull are unbeaten at home with two shut-outs of their own. Two possession-light, defensively drilled sides with a combined lack of midfield control means long spells of attritional football. Nine of the last twelve meetings between these clubs in all competitions have produced fewer than three goals. This is the anchor bet of the weekend and a staple of our over/under prediction model – you can also read our full methodology in the over/under betting guide.
Odds: 1.85
The outright market has this almost as a coin flip (Hull 2.90, Draw 3.20, Everton 2.60), which underestimates the visitors. Everton are unbeaten, have the division's stingiest defence alongside Hull, and possess markedly superior individual quality in Grealish, Dewsbury-Hall and Barry. Hull, meanwhile, are winless in three (D2 L1), are missing ten senior players, and have a dreadful historical record in Sunday fixtures. Draw No Bet refunds the stake if Jakirović's side grind out a point, making it the smart way to back the superior squad. See our draw no bet predictions page for more matches priced this way.
Odds: 1.72
Hull have failed to score in two of their last four league games (0-0 vs Villa, and blanked at Sunderland in the cup), while Everton have kept clean sheets in two of their last three. The Tigers create just 1.06 xG per match – the lowest of any side in the league – and without the injured Stroud and Morita they lose two of their more progressive players. Everton's away games have featured goals at both ends in only one of five this season. This pairing with Under 2.5 goals is the most probable scoreline sequence in our model, as detailed on our BTTS / GG-NG predictions page.
Odds: 6.50
Our final score prediction is Everton 0-1 (Hull 0, Everton 1). The logic: Everton have won by a single goal in two of their last three victories (1-0 Ipswich, 1-0 Wolves in the cup), and their defensive structure under Moyes is specifically designed to protect a narrow lead. Hull will sit deep, create little, and chase the game late – leaving space for a counter-attacking or set-piece winner, most plausibly from Barry, Grealish or a Tarkowski header from a corner. Small stakes advised given the variance of correct score betting, but 6.50 represents clear value against a modelled probability nearer 18%. More options are listed on our correct score tips page.
Odds: 3.40
Everton's only recognised senior striker has scored the winner in two of the Toffees' three wins this season, including the first-half goal that beat Ipswich before the international break. With Everton likely to enjoy the better of a limited number of chances, Barry – strong in the air against a Hull back three missing Charlie Hughes – is the logical focal point for the visitors' attack at an attractive price for a speculative saver. Consider building these selections into a cautious weekend acca via our acca tips page, and always price up your bets using European (decimal) odds as explained in our beginner's guide to reading betting odds.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We predict a tight, tense, low-scoring Everton victory by a single goal. The case for the visitors rests on three pillars. First, defensive reliability: Everton have conceded just three goals in five league games, kept three clean sheets, and have the best save percentage of any goalkeeper in the division in Pickford. Second, individual quality in decisive areas: Grealish and Dewsbury-Hall operate at a level Hull's depleted squad – missing ten senior players including Stroud, Morita, Butland, Hughes and Matazo – simply cannot match across ninety minutes. Third, game-state management: Moyes has turned protecting 1-0 leads into an art form, and Hull's lack of a proven creative midfielder (1.06 xG per game, lowest in the league) makes a comeback unlikely once behind.
The counter-argument is real, and it is why we advise caution rather than confidence: Hull are unbeaten at home, beat Manchester United 2-0 here in August, and are unbeaten in their last two home league meetings with Everton. Jakirović's side will make this a battle of set-pieces and second balls, and McBurnie against Tarkowski is a duel Hull can win. But the Tigers have gone three games without a win, were beaten at Newcastle before the break, and their Sunday record in the Premier League (five wins in 27) is one of the worst in the division. Expect long periods of nothing, one moment of Grealish or Barry magic or a set-piece scramble, and Everton shutting the game down professionally. For live in-play angles on how this unfolds, keep our live scores page open during the match, and check tomorrow's football predictions for the rest of the Matchweek 6 card.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Everton are one of only five unbeaten teams in the Premier League this season (W2 D3), and have conceded just three goals – with three clean sheets, joint-most in the division alongside Hull
- Everton's matches have averaged 1.80 goals, the joint-lowest in the Premier League; Hull's have averaged just 2.00
- Hull are unbeaten at home this season with two clean sheets (2-0 vs Manchester United, 0-0 vs Aston Villa) but are winless in their last three games overall (D2 L1)
- Everton are winless in their last seven Premier League away games (D4 L3) – their last away win was 3-2 at Newcastle in February 2026
- Hull have won only five of 27 Premier League games played on a Sunday (D5 L17); their last Sunday win was 2-1 vs Southampton in November 2016
- Everton have won five of the ten Premier League meetings (D3 L2); the last was a 4-0 Goodison win in March 2017, but Hull are unbeaten in their last two home league games against the Toffees (2-0 in 2015, 2-2 in 2016)
- Hull are missing ten senior players through injury, including Jack Butland, Charlie Hughes, Hidemasa Morita, Elliot Stroud (doubtful) and Tim Iroegbunam
- Sergej Jakirović won the Barclays Manager of the Month award for August 2026 and signed a new two-year contract in September; Hull are back in the top flight for the first time since 2016/17
- Thierno Barry has scored the decisive goal in two of Everton's three wins this season and is their only fit senior striker
Conclusion
Hull City versus Everton is the Premier League's early-season clash of mirror images: two stubborn, defence-first, possession-light teams separated by a single point and a single place in the table. The MKM Stadium will be bouncing on Sunday afternoon – the Tigers' return to the top flight has been one of the great feel-good stories of 2026, and Jakirović's men have already shown they can upset the league's giants at home.
Yet football matches between equals are usually decided by depth and by moments, and Everton hold the edge in both. Moyes' side are unbeaten, defensively elite, and possess the game's two most likely difference-makers in Grealish and Barry, while Hull's extraordinary injury list – ten senior absentees – has thinned their options at precisely the moment the fixture list stiffens. Everton's awful away record is the one genuine reason for pause, but three of those seven winless away games were draws, and a point still no-bets the risk in our recommended staking approach.
Our final prediction is Hull City 0-1 Everton, best supported by Under 2.5 goals (1.65), Everton Draw No Bet (1.85) and BTTS – No (1.72), with the 1-0 correct score at 6.50 as the value longer-shot. Expect a chess match, expect frustration, and expect the Toffees to find the single moment that the Tigers' patched-up squad cannot. Whatever you back, do it responsibly – and for more analysed fixtures across the weekend, visit our banker of the day page and the full today's football predictions hub.
