Guiseley vs Sutton: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Thursday, 05 November 2026 by Steve
Guiseley vs Sutton United Prediction
England FA Cup First Round Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Four-goal Guiseley reach FA Trophy next round after thrilling win - Yahoo Sports
Seventh-tier Guiseley welcome National League side Sutton United to Nethermoor Park on Saturday 7 November 2026 for one of the most intriguing ties of the Emirates FA Cup First Round. The Lions have battled through four qualifying rounds to reach the competition proper for the first time in years, and a bumper crowd is expected in West Yorkshire for what the club itself is billing as one of the biggest occasions in its recent history. Ian Richards' men sit mid-table in the Pitching In Northern Premier League Premier Division but arrive unbeaten in five matches in all competitions, a run that includes four straight wins before a hard-earned draw. For a club of Guiseley's size, the £47,750 winners' prize on offer in this round is transformative, and that financial carrot — alongside the romance of a cup run — will fuel a ferocious atmosphere at the 4,000-capacity Nethermoor.
Sutton United, two divisions above their hosts in the fifth-tier National League, make the long trip north as firm favourites. Chris Agutter's U's are four games into a solid autumn patch, winning three of their last five league outings, and will view this as a golden opportunity to reach the Second Round for the first time since their memorable 2021/22 run. Sutton's squad is stacked with Football League experience — from on-loan Manchester City goalkeeper Spike Brits to veteran centre-back Will Nightingale — and their extra quality in the final third should ultimately tell against part-time opposition. That said, the FA Cup's first-round history is littered with giant-killings, and Sutton were beaten 1-0 at Boreham Wood as recently as last season's run-in, a reminder that nothing can be taken for granted on the road at this level. For readers building a full weekend card, our football predictions for today and tomorrow's matches cover every FA Cup tie, while our hot predictions page rounds up the weekend's most backed selections.
Our prediction model has crunched the form, the head-to-head record and the squad data, and it points clearly in one direction: a Sutton United victory by a 1-3 scoreline. The U's have won three of the four previous meetings between these sides, and their physical, direct style is perfectly suited to unsettling a Guiseley back line that, for all its organisation, has not faced an attack of this calibre all season. We do expect the Lions to find the net in front of a raucous home crowd — Guiseley have scored in each of their last five matches — but Sutton's superior depth and match-winners such as Temi Babalola, Sam Folarin and Charlie Carter should prove too much over ninety minutes. Below we break down the tactics, team news, predicted lineups and the five betting angles we like best for this cup tie.
Tactical Preview
Factfile: Charlie Carter - Sutton United Football Club
Formation & Key Matchups
Guiseley 4-2-3-1
Ian Richards has settled on a disciplined 4-2-3-1 this season, with captain Lebrun Mbeka anchoring a defence that has kept things tight in the NPL Premier. The double pivot of Adam Lund and Derren Boyle gives the Lions a platform to play, and everything creative flows through Charlie Staniland in the number ten role. Out wide, Amir Berchil's pace and Cameron Wilson's direct running provide an outlet on the counter — a route Guiseley will absolutely need given Sutton are likely to dominate possession. The key battle will be whether Guiseley's midfield pair can stop Sutton's runners from flooding the half-spaces; if Lund and Boyle get dragged wide, the channel between centre-back and full-back is where Sutton's wingers thrive.
Sutton United 4-3-3
Chris Agutter has largely operated with a 4-3-3 since taking permanent charge at Gander Green Lane in late 2025, and this summer's recruitment fits that shape beautifully. Jake Taylor dictates tempo from the base of midfield alongside the energetic Emmanuel Osadebe and the goal threat of Charlie Carter, while the front three of Sam Folarin, Temi Babalola and Jermaine Francis offers a blend of power, pace and poaching. Sutton's full-backs, Kwaku Donkor and Besart Topallaj, push high to create overloads, meaning the U's will spend long spells camped in Guiseley's half. Their set-piece threat is another major weapon — Nightingale, Alex Kirk and Moore-Taylor all arrive with real aerial presence, which is bad news for a Guiseley side that has occasionally looked vulnerable from corners this term.
Critical Vulnerability
Guiseley's critical vulnerability is the physical mismatch at set pieces and in transition. Against NPL opposition the Lions' back four copes well, but Sutton are bigger, faster and stronger in nearly every duel. The second ball after long clearances is where this tie will be decided: if Guiseley's midfield cannot secure those loose balls, Sutton's front three will repeatedly attack a backpedalling defensive line — a pattern that produced three goals for Harrogate against the U's just two weeks ago, and one Guiseley simply cannot afford to repeat. Sutton, for their part, must guard against complacency and the sucker punch of a fast Guiseley break; conceding first in a packed, noisy Nethermoor would turn this into exactly the kind of afternoon National League sides dread.
Team News & Squad Status
Guiseley 🔥
- Captain and defensive leader Lebrun Mbeka is available after having his contract option taken up for 2026/27 — his 142nd Lions appearance could come here.
- Goalkeeper Jack Hall, signed from Bradford (Park Avenue) in the summer, is expected to start between the posts.
- Summer signings Paul Iggulden (Stocksbridge Park Steels), Jack Tinker (Liversedge), Adam Lund (Alfreton Town), Frankie Sinfield (Pontefract Collieries) and Cameron Wilson (Matlock Town) have all bedded in and are pushing for starts.
- Strikers Aaron Martin and Jay Rollins joined from Worksop Town and give Ian Richards fresh legs up front alongside talisman Jordan Thewlis.
- Irish forward Kallan Murphy adds physicality as a battering-ram option from the bench.
- No new suspension concerns; Richards has rotated minimally during the cup run and is expected to name his strongest available XI.
Sutton United 🟰
- Manager Chris Agutter has a near-full National League squad to choose from, with seven summer recruits already integrated.
- Spike Brits, on loan from Manchester City, is expected to start in goal ahead of player-coach Chris Haigh.
- Captain Jake Taylor wears the armband this season and anchors midfield with Emmanuel Osadebe (the former Crawley and Gillingham man) alongside him.
- Striker Temi Babalola (No. 9) leads the line, supported by wingers Sam Folarin and Jermaine Francis.
- Will Nightingale, Charlie Carter, Omar Mussa and Jordan Moore-Taylor arrived in the summer and have all featured regularly.
- Young loanees Joe Knight (Stevenage), Bobby Amartey (Leicester City) and Ben Brookes (York City) provide depth at the back.
- Agutter may make one or two changes from the side beaten 3-1 at Harrogate Town, but is expected to field a strong team out of respect for the cup tie.
Predicted Lineups
THEWLIS LIONS TO POWERS VICTORY! POWERS VICTORY! - The Non-League Football Paper
| Guiseley 4-2-3-1 | Sutton United 4-3-3 |
|---|---|
| Jack Hall (GK) | Spike Brits (GK) |
| Ollie Brown (RB) | Kwaku Donkor (RB) |
| Lebrun Mbeka (CB, c) | Alex Kirk (CB) |
| Lucas Odunston (CB) | Will Nightingale (CB) |
| Kyle White (LB) | Besart Topallaj (LB) |
| Adam Lund (DM) | Jake Taylor (CM, c) |
| Derren Boyle (DM) | Emmanuel Osadebe (CM) |
| Jack Emmett (RW) | Charlie Carter (CM) |
| Charlie Staniland (AM) | Sam Folarin (RW) |
| Amir Berchil (LW) | Jermaine Francis (LW) |
| Jordan Thewlis (ST) | Temi Babalola (ST) |
Head-to-Head Record
POST MATCH Temi Babalola Worthing 0 Sutton United 3 NL 31/10/26
These two clubs have met four times before, all during the 2017-18 National League season when Guiseley were a fifth-tier side and Sutton United were flying high. The U's won three of those four league encounters, outscoring the Lions 8-2 across the season series, but Guiseley's solitary victory — a 2-1 home success at Nethermoor — is a result the current squad will have heard plenty about in the build-up to this tie. It is the only time in the clubs' history that Guiseley have beaten Sutton, and it underlines that this fixture, while historically one-sided, is not without precedent for an upset.
Nearly nine years on from that 2017-18 campaign, the gulf between the clubs has actually widened in Sutton's favour — the U's bring a full-time, National League-standard squad while Guiseley operate two divisions below. Sutton's recent head-to-head dominance is mirrored by their pedigree in this competition: the club reached the FA Cup Fourth Round as recently as 2022 and took Arsenal to a replay in 2017. Guiseley, by contrast, are relishing a rare return to the first-round proper, and their players will treat this as the biggest match of their season. History strongly favours Sutton, but cup football has a habit of rewriting history — something to keep in mind if you are browsing our draw predictions or considering insurance via the draw no bet market this weekend.
Key Players Comparison
Jordan Thewlis — Guiseley
The Lions' talisman and penalty-box poacher. Thewlis netted 17 goals last season despite injury interruptions, and Guiseley's cup dreams rest on his ability to convert the half-chances that come the hosts' way.
Temi Babalola — Sutton United
Sutton's new No. 9 and the man most likely to open the scoring. Powerful, quick across the ground and clinical from cutbacks, Babalola is exactly the type of forward who feasts on seventh-tier defences in cup ties.
Charlie Staniland — Guiseley
Signed from Hallam, Staniland is the creative hub between the lines. If Guiseley are to score, the chances are the 21-year-old midfielder will have made them.
Charlie Carter — Sutton United
The summer signing from Woking arrives with a reputation for arriving late in the box, and his midfield runs could be the difference when Sutton sustain pressure.
The individual battle that excites us most is Babalola against Mbeka. Guiseley's captain has seen everything at this level across three spells at the club, but the 2026/27 version of Sutton's strikeforce is quicker and more physical than anything he has faced in the NPL this season. If Mbeka and Odunston can keep Babalola quiet for an hour, the tie stays alive; if the Sutton No. 9 gets one early, this could get away from the hosts quickly. Further forward, Thewlis will be starved of service for long periods, so Guiseley need Staniland and the wide men to deliver quality in low volumes — set pieces and counters are their likeliest routes to the goal we expect them to score. Sutton's greater individual quality across the pitch is the single biggest reason our model projects a comfortable away win, and why the U's feature prominently among our must-win teams today.
The Managers
Ian Richards (Guiseley)
Richards took charge at Nethermoor Park with the club searching for stability after a disappointing 2025-26 campaign that ended in a 13th-place finish in the Northern Premier League Premier Division. The former defender has rebuilt methodically, tying down captain Lebrun Mbeka early and recruiting wisely from the NPL market — Lund, Staniland, Iggulden and Wilson all arrived with pedigree at this level.
The cup run has been a bonus Richards has embraced fully. His side have navigated four qualifying ties to get here, grinding out results in tight, physical encounters, and he has shown a knack for game management that suggests Guiseley will not be naive on Saturday. Expect a compact shape, a fast start designed to feed off the crowd's energy, and a willingness to go direct to Thewlis and Martin early. Richards knows his team will spend long periods without the ball, and his game plan will be built around surviving those spells and striking on the counter and from set plays. The financial windfall of a first-round win — £47,750 — would fund his project for months, giving his players every motivation to produce the performance of their lives.
Chris Agutter (Sutton United)
Agutter inherited a difficult situation in September 2025 when Steve Morison departed Gander Green Lane after a winless start, and the former Forest Green and Eastbourne boss has quietly rebuilt the U's into a competitive National League outfit. A 12th-place finish last season laid the foundations, and an ambitious summer saw seven new signings arrive, from Nightingale and Moore-Taylor at the back to Babalola, Folarin and Carter in attack.
Agutter's teams are front-foot and structured: a high defensive line, aggressive pressing triggers and full-backs who push on to pin opponents back. He was honest after the 3-1 defeat at Harrogate Town last month, calling the overriding emotion "frustration" — a sign of the standards he is setting. Cup runs matter to Agutter as a route to revenue and momentum, and he has enough depth to rotate without significantly weakening his side. His challenge on Saturday is psychological as much as tactical: ensuring a professional performance against part-time opposition, avoiding the slow starts that have occasionally plagued Sutton away from home, and killing the contest early before the Nethermoor crowd can become a factor. If he manages that, his side's quality advantage should be decisive.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 1.78
Two divisions separate these sides and the market reflects it, yet 1.78 for a full-time National League team against seventh-tier opposition still offers genuine value. Sutton have won three of the last five meetings historically, arrive in decent form with three wins from their last five, and possess greater quality in every line of the pitch. Guiseley's home form and cup romance make this trickier than the raw odds suggest — which is precisely why the price is as big as it is — but over ninety minutes the U's should have too much. Our banker of the day column profiles similar strong-away-favourite angles, and this selection anchors our card. Stake confidently; this is the safest route to profit on the tie.
Odds: 2.85
Our model projects a 1-3 scoreline, which means both teams scoring. Guiseley have found the net in every match during their current five-game unbeaten run, Thewlis is a proven finisher at this level, and a packed Nethermoor should drag at least one goal out of the hosts — particularly from a set piece or a counter in the second half when Sutton's legs tire. Combining Sutton's likely win with both teams to score lifts the return from a skinny 1.78 to a much healthier 2.85, and the statistics from both clubs' recent fixtures support the goals angle. If you prefer to separate the markets, see our dedicated BTTS (GG/NG) predictions page for the full weekend slate.
Odds: 2.10
Four of the five goals we project land above the 2.5 line, and the price of 2.10 is generous for a tie we expect to finish with four goals. Sutton's away matches in the National League this season have been notably high-event — their recent fixtures include a 3-1 defeat at Harrogate and multiple 2-0 wins — while Guiseley's cup run has produced goals at both ends. When a strong attacking side meets a spirited but overmatched underdog, the typical pattern is an open second half as the favourites pull away. The market is pricing this as a tight, low-scoring non-league slog; we think it opens up. All our weekend totals analysis is collected on the over/under predictions page, where this tie is flagged as one of the round's best overs.
Odds: 13.00
This is our headline score prediction and the value single on the card at a chunky 13.00. The logic is simple: Sutton's attacking depth suggests three goals against a seventh-tier defence — a tally they have reached or exceeded in several away wins this season — while Guiseley's scoring streak and home advantage make a consolation goal highly probable. Correct score betting is inherently high-variance, so keep stakes small, but as a companion to the main selections it offers an excellent risk-reward ratio. For more high-odds scoreline ideas this weekend, browse our correct score tips page, where this fixture is among the featured selections, and check the bet of the day for our single strongest overall pick.
Odds: 6.50
For the adventurous, Sutton's new No. 9 is our fancy to open the scoring. Babalola was recruited precisely for afternoons like this — his power and movement should guarantee chances against a defence that has never faced a striker of his calibre. First-goalscorer markets are lottery territory, so treat this strictly as a small-stakes fun bet, but the 6.50 on offer is inflated relative to Sutton's 45%+ implied probability of scoring first. If he bags an early one, live bettors can also ride the win either half market for Sutton in the second period. Whatever you play, shop for the best price and follow our sure win predictions hub for the weekend's lower-risk alternatives.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We project a 1-3 Sutton United victory at Nethermoor Park. The expected flow of the game: Guiseley start ferociously in front of a sold-out crowd and shade the opening twenty minutes, but Sutton weather the storm, grow into the contest through Taylor and Osadebe's midfield control, and strike first through Babalola before half-time. The second half sees Sutton's superior fitness and bench quality take over — Carter and Francis add goals after the break, either side of a deserved consolation for the hosts, most likely from Thewlis or a set-piece scramble. Sutton's 4-3-3 should generate enough volume of chances that three goals is a median outcome rather than a ceiling.
Could Guiseley spring the upset? Of course — cup football is built on afternoons like the one this could become, and Sutton's away record is not flawless. But over the course of ninety minutes, the U's advantages in physical conditioning, squad depth and individual quality are overwhelming, and the 1-3 scoreline best captures our projection of a competitive first half followed by a professional Sutton pull-away. Readers following other FA Cup ties this weekend can compare notes in our Sutton vs Truro prediction archive and the Leiston vs Guiseley preview, while the Oxford City vs Enfield Town preview covers another non-league cup battle worth monitoring.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Sutton United have won three of the four previous meetings with Guiseley, outscoring the Lions 8-2 across the 2017-18 National League season series.
- Guiseley are unbeaten in five matches in all competitions (four wins, one draw) heading into this First Round tie.
- Sutton have won three of their last five National League fixtures, with their only defeat in that span a 3-1 loss at Harrogate Town.
- The winners pocket £47,750 in FA Cup prize money — a transformational sum for seventh-tier Guiseley.
- Sutton's squad includes on-loan Manchester City goalkeeper Spike Brits and seven summer signings led by Will Nightingale, Emmanuel Osadebe and Temi Babalola.
- Guiseley captain Lebrun Mbeka has made 142 appearances across three spells at Nethermoor Park.
- Jordan Thewlis scored 17 goals for the Lions last season despite injury layoffs — he is the hosts' clearest route to goal.
- Both teams have scored in the majority of Sutton's away matches this season, supporting the BTTS angle at 1.70.
- Sutton are managed by Chris Agutter, who took permanent charge in September 2025 after Steve Morison's departure; Guiseley are led by Ian Richards.
- The four prior meetings produced an average of 2.5 goals per game — we expect this one to go well above that.
Conclusion
Guiseley vs Sutton United is a tie that captures everything wonderful about the FA Cup First Round: a proud seventh-tier club hosting full-time opposition in front of an expectant home crowd, with prize money, prestige and a place in the Second Round draw on the line. The Lions deserve enormous credit for battling through four qualifying rounds to reach this stage, and Ian Richards' men will make life genuinely uncomfortable for the U's for as long as their legs allow. The atmosphere at Nethermoor Park will be electric, and the first half-hour could well belong to the hosts.
Ultimately, though, class should prevail. Sutton United's squad is deeper, faster and more experienced, Chris Agutter has them well-drilled, and their attacking trio of Folarin, Babalola and Francis possesses the individual quality to unlock a brave but outgunned defence. Our model's 1-3 prediction reflects a game we expect to be competitive for an hour before Sutton's superiority produces a decisive final quarter. For bettors, the Sutton win at 1.78 is the anchor, the win-and-BTTS combo at 2.85 is the value play, and the 1-3 correct score at 13.00 is the headline punt.
Whatever happens, this is a proper cup tie — and it kicks off a full weekend of FA Cup action covered across Geekinco. Explore our fulltime prediction hub for result-based picks, the double chance prediction page for safer cover on tighter matches, and the Tamworth vs Sutton preview for more on the U's season. Enjoy the game, and please remember to gamble responsibly.
