Como vs Venezia: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Friday, 30 October 2026 by Steve
Como vs Venezia
Italy - Serie A Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
Meet Como 1907's Newest | Como 1907 Official Site
Serie A's Round 10 programme brings together two clubs whose 2026/27 campaigns could hardly have started more differently. Como 1907, now firmly established as one of the most exciting projects in Italian football under Cesc Fàbregas, welcome newly promoted Venezia to the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia on Sunday afternoon, and the contrast in fortunes is stark. The home side sit fourth in the table with 20 points from nine matches (six wins, two draws, one defeat), scoring freely and defending with discipline, while the Lagunari prop up the division with a meagre three points from a possible 27, having lost eight of their nine league fixtures since returning to the top flight. For readers who like to scan the full slate of weekend fixtures before placing any wagers, our football predictions for today page breaks down every angle of this game alongside the rest of the Serie A card.
Como's rise has been one of the stories of the season in Italy. Fresh from a historic fourth-place finish and Champions League qualification last term, Fàbregas' men have carried that momentum into the autumn. They arrive off the back of a 3-1 away win at Torino and a comfortable 2-0 home victory over Sassuolo, sandwiched around a spectacular 4-1 Champions League triumph over Manchester United at the Sinigaglia. Across all competitions they have won four of their last five, averaging more than two goals per game. Venezia, meanwhile, were beaten by Inter Milan in midweek and have taken just a single league win all season. When you study a football prediction for tomorrow's matches and compare recent trajectories, this is one of the most lopsided home-away profiles on the entire card, with Como collecting 2.33 points per game at home and Venezia yet to pick up a single away point.
The historical rivalry between these two sides has actually been remarkably balanced - the last six meetings have produced two wins apiece and two draws - but current form overwhelmingly favours the Lombardy club. Venezia's return to Serie A after a season in Serie B has been bruising: they have conceded 17 goals in nine games, their goal difference stands at minus 13, and goalkeeper Filip Stanković has been among the busiest shot-stoppers in the league. The markets have reacted accordingly. Como are priced as heavy favourites in European odds at around 1.33, with the draw near 5.75 and an away win as high as 8.50. For a broader sense of how these markets behave, our guide to European 1X2 betting analysis explains exactly why the home side carries such short odds here.
Tactical Preview
Akor Adams joins Venezia FC
Formation & Key Matchups
Como 4-2-3-1
Fàbregas has settled on a fluid 4-2-3-1 that morphs into a 3-2-5 in possession, with one full-back stepping into midfield to create overloads. The double pivot of Maximo Perrone and Samuele Ricci gives Como control against any press, while Nico Paz operates as the free No. 10 between the lines, drifting into half-spaces where his left foot can do damage. With 12 assists already this season - the second-best tally in Europe's big five leagues - Como's chance creation is built on quick vertical passes after regains, and they average close to 2.2 expected goals per home match. Out of possession they press in a coordinated mid-block, forcing opponents wide and collapsing onto the ball carrier, which is precisely how they strangled Sassuolo 2-0 last time out at the Sinigaglia.
Venezia 3-5-2
Giovanni Stroppa, who guided Venezia straight back to Serie A after their relegation, has deployed a compact 3-5-2 designed to keep games tight and steal results on the counter. The wing-backs provide the only real width, while Akor Adams and the forward line, supported by the lively Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, look to attack space behind the defence. The problem has been execution rather than structure: Venezia's 17 goals conceded reflects a side that too often loses its compactness in the second phase of defensive transitions. Away from the Penzo they have been porous, conceding early goals in the majority of their trips, and Stanković's 35 saves tell the story of a team pinned back for long stretches.
Critical Vulnerability
Venezia's Achilles heel is the channel between their right-sided centre-back and wing-back when their 3-5-2 is stretched. Como attack predominantly down their left through Paz's drifting and the overlapping runs behind him, and that is exactly where Venezia have conceded the majority of their away goals this season. If the visitors drop into a low block - as expected - Como will need patience, but their set-piece threat (they scored from corners in three of their last four home wins) offers a secondary route. Venezia's own set-piece defending has been poor, conceding nearly a third of their goals from dead-ball situations. Anyone studying the strongest football formations will recognise that a well-drilled 4-2-3-1 against a reactive 3-5-2 is a structural mismatch when the gap in individual quality is this large.
Team News & Squad Status
Como 🔥
- Goalkeeper Jean Butez continues as undisputed No. 1, boasting a 72% save rate and two clean sheets this season.
- Nico Paz is available after shaking off a minor knock and trained fully ahead of the weekend.
- Maximo Perrone returned to group training following his individual programme and is in contention to start in the double pivot.
- Como are managing a few absentees: midfielder Matteo Liberali and forward Alieu Fadera Diao remain out, while defensive cover is also short.
- No new suspensions; Fàbregas has a near-full attacking unit to choose from, with Anastasios Douvikas and Patrick Cutrone competing to lead the line.
Venezia ❄️
- Filip Stanković keeps his place in goal after another busy night against Inter Milan on Wednesday.
- Defensive options are stretched: Armando Bella-Kotchap and Michael Svěrko remain doubts, leaving Stroppa short at centre-back.
- Midfielder Alfred Duncan is unavailable, reducing ball-winning cover in front of the back three.
- Striker Alessandro Adorante and winger Bruno Franjic are also ruled out through injury.
- Akor Adams is fit and expected to start as the focal point of the attack, with Elia Rrahmani offering pace in support.
Predicted Lineups
Numbers behind Anastasious Douvikas' rise at Como - Get Italian Football News
| Como 4-2-3-1 | Venezia 3-5-2 |
|---|---|
| GK: Jean Butez | GK: Filip Stanković |
| RB: Raoul Bellanova | RCB: Joel Schingtienne |
| CB: Alberto Dossena | CB: Ante Đapo |
| CB: Edoardo Goldaniga | LCB: Ridgeciano Haps |
| LB: Ivan Smolcic | RWB: Pasquale Mazzocchi |
| DM: Maximo Perrone | CM: Tanner Tessmann |
| DM: Samuele Ricci | CM: Lassana Coulibaly |
| RW: Gabriel Strefezza | LWB: Giorgio Altare |
| AM: Nico Paz | SS: Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| LW: Martin Baturina | ST: Akor Adams |
| ST: Anastasios Douvikas | ST: Elia Rrahmani |
Head-to-Head Record
Filip Stanković shines for Venezia: Ten saves seal top spot in Serie B - News - Nogomania
Despite their wildly different current circumstances, this fixture has a genuinely competitive history. The last six meetings between Como and Venezia - four of which came in Serie B during the 2022/23 and 2023/24 campaigns - have produced two victories for each side and two draws. Venezia actually won both Serie B meetings in 2022/23, including a 3-2 thriller at the Penzo, but Como turned the tables with a 2-1 home win in March 2024 on their way to promotion. Since both clubs reached the top flight, the teams have shared the points in back-to-back 1-1 and 2-2 draws, suggesting the rivalry has a habit of delivering goals even when form suggests otherwise.
Of the six encounters, four have featured at least three goals, and both teams have scored in five of them. That scoring trend matters for bettors: although Venezia arrive in dreadful form, both recent Serie A meetings between these sides ended level with goals at both ends, and Como's attacking output this season - 14 goals in their last five league games - suggests the visitors' fragile defence will be tested from the first whistle. Punters who follow GG/NG (both teams to score) predictions will note that the BTTS line is attractively priced around 1.65 given this history, even against a side as blunt as Venezia have been for most of the campaign. If you prefer to dig deeper into the goal markets, our over/under betting guide explains how to weigh these H2H trends against current-season shot data.
Key Players Comparison
Nico Paz (Como)
The Argentine trequartista is the creative heartbeat of this Como side. Fàbregas trusts him completely between the lines, and his combination play with Douvikas and the overlapping left-back has produced a string of goals this season. Paz's ability to receive on the half-turn and thread passes through a packed low block will be decisive against a Venezia side expected to defend deep for long spells.
Anastasios Douvikas (Como)
The Greek striker averages close to 0.55 goals per 90 across his career and has been among Como's most efficient finishers this term. His movement across the front line drags centre-backs out of position, opening the half-spaces for Paz. Against Venezia's patched-up back three, his penalty-box presence makes him the most likely first scorer.
Jean Butez (Como)
Como's French goalkeeper has a career save percentage of over 71% and has already kept two clean sheets this season. With Venezia mustering barely 0.75 goals per league game, Butez's composure on the ball also lets Como build calmly from the back - a hallmark of Fàbregas' philosophy.
Akor Adams (Venezia)
Venezia's one genuine match-winner. The Nigerian forward has carried the promoted side's attacking burden, using his power and direct running to isolate centre-backs. If Venezia are to score, it will almost certainly involve Adams pinning Dossena and Goldaniga or attacking the space behind Como's advanced full-backs.
Filip Stanković (Venezia)
The Inter-owned goalkeeper has faced more shots than almost any keeper in Serie A this season and has kept the scorelines respectable with a 70% save rate. Venezia's upset hopes rest heavily on Stanković reproducing his midweek heroics against the champions.
The individual quality gap is the defining feature of this matchup. Como's front four of Strefezza, Paz, Baturina and Douvikas all rank comfortably above Venezia's best performers in seasonal rating models, and that superiority is magnified by the system: Fàbregas' positional play consistently manufactures high-quality chances, while Stroppa's side create almost exclusively from transitions and set pieces. That said, football's low-scoring nature means an early Stanković save or a set-piece scramble can flip the script, which is why disciplined bankroll management - never staking more than a small percentage on a single favourite, a principle covered in our guide to football betting mistakes to avoid - remains essential even on what looks like a banker.
The Managers
Cesc Fàbregas (Como)
The 39-year-old Spaniard has transformed Como from promotion hopefuls into Champions League participants in little over two years. In April 2026 he became the first foreign coach to win Italy's prestigious Bearzot Award as Coach of the Year, and after a summer of speculation linking him with Chelsea, he committed his future to the Como project. His teams play possession-based, vertically aggressive football with an emphasis on positional rotations, and his man-management of young talents like Paz and Perrone has drawn praise across Europe.
Fàbregas' in-game adjustments have also been a feature of Como's strong start to 2026/27. His substitutions have directly influenced results on multiple occasions, and his refusal to allow his squad to look beyond the next fixture - publicly rebuking any Champions League talk mid-season last year - has kept the group grounded. Against a bottom-placed side, the challenge is psychological as much as tactical: breaking down a low block without overcommitting. His record against relegation-zone teams last season (won 9 of 12 such fixtures) suggests he handles these games well.
Giovanni Stroppa (Venezia)
Stroppa earned his reputation as a promotion specialist by taking Venezia straight back to Serie A at the first attempt following their 2024/25 relegation. The 58-year-old favours organised, compact shapes and hard-working midfields, and his achievement in returning the Lagunari to the top flight should not be understated given the club's modest budget relative to its rivals.
However, the step up in quality has exposed the limitations of his current squad. With just one win and three points from nine rounds, Stroppa is already under pressure, and his post-match comments after the midweek defeat to Inter emphasised "small steps" and defensive organisation over attacking ambition. His task at the Sinigaglia is to keep the game alive for as long as possible - a damage-limitation exercise that rarely produces away points, but one that has occasionally frustrated bigger sides this season.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 1.33 (European)
Everything points in one direction here. Como are unbeaten in their last five Serie A home matches, sit 17 points above Venezia in the table, and have won four of their last five in all competitions while scoring 14 league goals in that span. Venezia have lost eight of nine, are winless away from home all season, and are missing key defensive personnel. At 1.33 the price is short, but the implied probability of roughly 75% still understates Como's true winning chance according to most rating models, which put it closer to 80%. This is the anchor bet of the round. For readers building an accumulator, this is the kind of selection featured on our sure win predictions page, and pairing it with a leg or two from our combo predictions sheet is a sensible way to build value.
Odds: 1.40 (European)
Four of the last six H2H meetings produced three or more goals, and both teams have scored in five of six. Como have averaged over two goals per home game this season, while Venezia's away matches have been open affairs simply because their defence leaks chances - they concede more than two goals per 90 minutes on the road. Add in Como's set-piece threat and Venezia's dead-ball frailties, and 1.40 for over 2.5 goals offers genuine value against a modelled probability nearer 70%. You can explore similar angles on our dedicated over/under prediction page, and our over/under betting tips article explains how to spot when bookmakers are slow to adjust these lines.
Odds: 1.85 (European)
Prediction markets currently price Como's expected winning margin at around 1.5 goals, but the underlying numbers suggest the true supremacy is closer to two. Como have won four of their last five league games by two or more goals, including 3-1 wins at both Torino and Fiorentina - comparable or stronger opposition to Venezia. The visitors, meanwhile, have lost six of their eight defeats by at least two goals. Backing Como to win by two clear goals at 1.85 is the standout value play on the card for single-bet punters. Those who prefer insurance can use draw no bet predictions instead, where Como would be priced around 1.10 - a structure explained in our draw no bet strategy guide.
Odds: 1.65 (European)
This is the riskier leg of the main plays but the history is persuasive: BTTS has landed in five of the last six H2H meetings, including both Serie A encounters. Venezia have scored in six of their nine league games despite their terrible record, and Akor Adams is a handful for any centre-back pairing. Como have kept clean sheets in only a quarter of their matches this season, and with full-backs pushing high, there will be transitional moments for the visitors to exploit. Our GG/NG tips page tracks exactly this kind of fixture profile - a heavy home favourite with defensive full-backs facing a side that rarely blanks entirely.
Odds: 12.00 (European)
Our model's most likely outcome by a clear margin. The 3-1 scoreline fits the game script perfectly: Como dominant in possession, scoring two or more through sustained pressure and set pieces, with Venezia grabbing a consolation on the counter through Adams or from a dead ball once the game stretches. Como's last three home wins have produced scorelines of 2-0, 3-1 and 4-1, and Venezia's away defeats this season have tended to follow the 1-3, 0-2 pattern. Correct score betting should always be a small-stakes, fun play - our correct score tips page covers staking approaches in detail, and for higher-variance punters, backing Como to win and BTTS at around 2.90 is a correlated alternative worth considering.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We predict a 3-1 home victory for Como. The match script writes itself: Fàbregas' side will dominate possession from the opening minutes, probing Venezia's compact 3-5-2 through Paz's creativity and the width provided by the advancing full-backs. Venezia's defensive record on the road - more than two goals conceded per away game - makes at least two Como goals close to a formality, and their set-piece vulnerability adds a likely third. We expect the hosts to lead by half-time, with Como priced at just 1.54 to win the first half alone, a market worth a look for those who like fast starts at the Sinigaglia.
Venezia's consolation goal is forecast for the second half, when Como may rotate ahead of their Champions League trip to Lens and the game opens up. Adams' physicality against a tiring defence, or a set-piece scramble, gives the visitors roughly a 60% chance of finding the net at least once - consistent with both the H2H trend of goals at both ends and Venezia's habit of scoring even in defeat. A clean-sheet-seeking Como defence should still do enough: Butez's 72% save rate and the home side's 0.88 goals-conceded-per-game average at the Sinigaglia point to one, at most, for the visitors. Bettors comparing prices across bookmakers should consult our guide to comparing football odds across markets to squeeze the best number on the correct score, and our Champions League odds context article explains why Como's European commitments rarely dent their domestic form at this stage of a campaign.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Table gap: Como sit 4th with 20 points from 9 games (W6 D2 L1, +9 goal difference); Venezia are 20th with 3 points (W1 D0 L8, -13).
- Home/away split: Como average 2.33 points per game at the Sinigaglia; Venezia have zero away points this season.
- Como have won four of their last five matches in all competitions, scoring 14 league goals across their last five Serie A fixtures.
- Venezia have lost eight of nine league games and were beaten by Inter Milan in midweek, playing again just four days before this trip.
- H2H balance: two wins each and two draws from the last six meetings - but four of those six games featured three or more goals.
- Both teams scored in five of the last six H2H encounters; BTTS is available at 1.65 despite Venezia's poor campaign.
- Como have scored from set pieces in three of their last four home wins; Venezia concede nearly a third of their goals from dead-ball situations.
- Jean Butez holds a 72% save rate and a career 71.5% save percentage; Venezia's Stanković has already made 35 saves this season.
- European odds: Como 1.33, Draw 5.75, Venezia 8.50; Over 2.5 goals 1.40; the market implies roughly a 75% home win probability.
- Fàbregas won 9 of 12 league fixtures against bottom-six opposition last season - an excellent record in exactly this type of fixture.
Conclusion
Como vs Venezia is, on paper, one of the most one-sided fixtures of the Serie A weekend. A fourth-placed, Champions League-level side in excellent form hosts the league's bottom club, which is winless away, missing defenders, and playing its second match in four days. The European odds of 1.33 for a Como win reflect that reality, and while the price is short, the probability estimates from statistical models suggest there is still thin value on the home side in the 1X2 market.
The more interesting betting angles lie in the ancillary markets. Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 and BTTS at 1.65 both draw strength from a head-to-head record in which goals have flowed freely regardless of either club's standing at the time. Como to win by two or more goals at 1.85 is the value single, and the 3-1 correct score at 12.00 is the speculative play that ties the whole analysis together. As ever, discipline matters: use the staking principles from our form guide to predicting matches, treat heavy favourites as acca anchors rather than value singles unless the handicap justifies it, and keep speculative correct-score bets to token stakes.
Our final prediction is a 3-1 Como victory - a result that would keep Fàbregas' side firmly in the Champions League conversation ahead of their European trip to Lens and maintain pressure on the league's top three. For Venezia and Stroppa, the visit to Lombardy is about damage limitation and survival of the fixture rather than points. Whatever happens, fans can follow all the action live on DAZN or Paramount+, and we will be back with fresh analysis and bet of the day selections, plus the latest from our hot predictions feed, once the final whistle blows at the Sinigaglia.
