Algeria vs Togo: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Thursday, 12 November 2026 by Steve
Algeria vs Togo
2027 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying (Group I) Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
FC Cincinnati signs Togo striker Kévin Denkey for MLS-record $16.2 million fee | FOX Sports
Group I of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign reaches its decisive double-header phase this weekend, and the headline act takes place in the hills of Kabylie as Algeria host Togo at the spectacular 54,500-capacity Stade Hocine Aït Ahmed in Tizi Ouzou. The Desert Warriors sit top of the section with four points from their opening two fixtures, while the Sparrowhawks are tucked in just behind the leading pair on three points, knowing that a positive result on the road would transform their qualification picture before the sides meet again in Lomé. Brahim Hemdani's new-look Algeria side have made an unbeaten start to the campaign, and with a partisan, sold-out crowd expected under the lights, anything short of victory would feel like a missed opportunity for the 2019 African champions. Gabonese official Pierre Ghislain Atcho has been appointed to referee the contest.
Algeria's autumn has been a whirlwind. After a summer spent at the FIFA World Cup, where the Fennecs thrilled neutrals in a 3-3 draw with Austria and a 2-1 win over Jordan before a 2-0 last-16 defeat to Switzerland ended their adventure, Hemdani's men returned to continental duty in devastating attacking fashion. They opened their qualifying account with a 3-1 home win over Zambia, Jaouen Hadjam scoring after just two minutes before second-half strikes from Ibrahim Maza and Anis Hadj Moussa sealed the points, and followed it with a hard-earned 2-2 draw away to Burundi, where a Farès Chaïbi own goal was among the concessions. An October friendly win over Niger kept the momentum going, but five goals scored and three conceded in two qualifiers tells its own story: this is an Algeria side that attacks superbly and leaks goals at the other end. Readers following the full qualifying picture can find every fixture analysed in our daily football predictions hub.
Togo, meanwhile, have been rebuilt methodically by veteran French coach Patrice Neveu, who was appointed at the start of 2026 and went through the spring unbeaten in a four-match friendly series, including a 5-1 thrashing of Benin and victories over Niger and Guinea. Their qualifying campaign began perfectly when Dermane Karim's 17th-minute strike beat Burundi 1-0 in Lomé, but the Sparrowhawks were brought back down to earth with a 2-0 defeat away to Zambia in September. The underlying numbers are stark: one goal scored and two conceded across two matches, and FIFA's 120th-ranked nation now face the continent's elite with the tag of underdogs firmly attached. There is hope, however, in the form of Eintracht Frankfurt defender Lilian Brassier, who has switched allegiance from France and could make his debut, while Kevin Denkey and veteran marksman Kodjo Fo-Doh Laba carry the scoring burden. Togo know the scale of the challenge — Algeria put five past them in this very fixture cycle in October 2024 — and revenge, or at least respectability, is the mission in the birthplace of Africa's greatest tournament.
Tactical Preview
Ibrahim Maza: Algeria's 'multicultural kid' from Berlin
Formation & Key Matchups
Algeria 4-3-3
Hemdani has settled on an aggressive 4-3-3 that attacks with five and defends with compact distances between the lines. Oussama Benbot will look to build from the back behind a back four of Achraf Abada, Ramy Bensebaini, Zineddine Belaïd and the lightning-quick Hadjam, whose overlapping runs from left-back have become a cornerstone of Algeria's chance creation. The midfield triangle of Himad Abdelli, Ibrahim Maza and Farès Chaïbi is arguably the most technically gifted in the group: Maza dictates tempo, Abdelli breaks lines with his carrying, and Chaïbi provides the vertical thrust. Ahead of them, Anis Hadj Moussa and Amine Amoura stretch defences wide of central striker Amine Gouiri, who operates as a false-nine-cum-playmaker between the lines. The system relies on sustained pressure and quick regains — a hallmark of the modern high-press game we break down in our strongest football formation analysis.
Togo 4-2-3-1
Neveu has drilled his side into a disciplined, mid-block 4-2-3-1 that concedes possession and prays for transition moments. Malcolm Barcola starts in goal behind a new-look centre-back pairing that is expected to feature debutant Brassier alongside captain Dakonam Djené, with Steven Nador and Abdoul-Sabourh Bode at full-back. The double pivot of Sadik Fofana and Dermane shields the back line, while Kodjo Aziangbe, Thibault Klidje and Sharani Zuberu supply the legs ahead of them, all serving the focal point: Kevin Denkey, whose power and penalty-box movement make him Togo's most likely route to goal. Togo's approach mirrors the classic underdog template of controlling a match without the ball — ceding territory, staying narrow, and striking through direct balls into the channels.
Critical Vulnerability
The decisive zone is Togo's left flank. Bode will be tasked with containing Hadj Moussa and the overlapping Abada simultaneously, and the one-versus-two overload there is where Algeria generated their best chances in the 5-1 win two years ago. If Klidje does not track back diligently, Togo's defensive block will be stretched until it cracks. At the other end, Algeria's high line leaves space in behind for Denkey to attack — but the visitors must first win the ball, something they have done far too rarely in this campaign, having mustered just a single goal across their two qualifiers.
Team News & Squad Status
Algeria 🟢🟡🟢🔴🟡
- Coach Brahim Hemdani named a 26-man squad on 5 November, with Ibrahim Maza, Anis Hadj Moussa and Amine Gouiri the headline selections.
- Adil Bourabaa is the only confirmed absentee, ruled out through injury.
- Notable omissions: Rayan Aït-Nouri and goalkeeper Luca Zidane both miss out as Hemdani continues his squad refresh.
- Fresh faces: defenders Mohamed Azzi and Abderrahmane Rebbach received debut call-ups.
- Goalkeepers: Oussama Benbot, Melvin Mastil (Lausanne) and Abderrahmane Ramdane (MC Alger).
- Young core trusted: 20-year-olds Ibrahim Maza and Amin Chiakha plus 23-year-old Adil Boulbina are all firmly in the first-team picture.
- Form guide: beat Niger 2-1 in an October friendly, drew 2-2 away in Burundi, and beat Zambia 3-1 before that.
- Algeria have won their last four meetings with Togo — see our hot predictions page for more banker material.
Togo 🔴🟢🟡🔴🟢
- Coach Patrice Neveu unveiled a final 26-man squad on 5 November for the back-to-back qualifiers.
- Big news: Lilian Brassier of Eintracht Frankfurt is included after switching international allegiance from France — a potential debut at centre-back.
- Kennedy Boateng (Al-Fateh) returns after recovering from the injury that kept him out of September's camp.
- Defender Kévin Boma (Red Bull Salzburg) misses out through injury; Bastou Djibril is back after missing the opening fixtures.
- Goalkeepers: Steven Mensah, Malcolm Barcola and Achirafou Yaya.
- Attack built around Kevin Denkey (FC Cincinnati) and record-chasing veteran Kodjo Fo-Doh Laba (Sharjah), with captain Dakonam Djené marshalling the defence.
- Thibault Klidje, who scored Togo's consolation in the 5-1 defeat here in 2024, provides the creativity behind the striker.
- Qualifier record so far: W1 L1 — 1-0 winners over Burundi, 2-0 losers away to Zambia.
Predicted Lineups
Football/Togo : Karim Dermane au FC Lorient, c'est officiel
| Algeria 4-3-3 | Togo 4-2-3-1 |
|---|---|
| Benbot (GK) | Barcola (GK) |
| Abada (RB) | Nador (RB) |
| Bensebaini (CB) | Brassier (CB) |
| Belaïd (CB) | Djené (CB, c) |
| Hadjam (LB) | Bode (LB) |
| Abdelli (CM) | Fofana (DM) |
| Maza (CM) | Dermane (DM) |
| Chaïbi (CM) | Aziangbe (RM) |
| Hadj Moussa (RW) | Zuberu (LM) |
| Gouiri (ST) | Klidje (AM) |
| Amoura (LW) | Denkey (ST) |
Head-to-Head Record
Chelsea shows interest in Feyenoord's Algerian winger Anis Hadj-Moussa | Dailysports
This fixture has developed a quietly compelling rivalry over the past decade and a half. The sides have met five times in competitive action since 2013, and remarkably every single encounter has produced a winner — there has never been a draw between Algeria and Togo. The most recent chapter was a painful one for the Sparrowhawks: in October 2024, during the qualifying campaign for the previous AFCON edition, Algeria ran riot in Algiers to win 5-1 with Saïd Benrahma starring, before grinding out a 1-0 victory in the Lomé return four days later. Algeria have now won the last four meetings in a row, and the pattern of those games — early Algerian pressure, Togo chasing shadows — is one Neveu's men are desperate to break.
Togo's solitary triumph remains one of the great AFCON shocks: a 2-0 group-stage win over Algeria at the 2013 finals in South Africa, delivered in the Emmanuel Adebayor era. Algeria gained revenge with a 1-0 home win in 2017 and then a thumping 4-1 victory in Lomé in November 2018 during the 2019 AFCON qualifying campaign — a result that underlined the gulf between the nations on their day. Our form guide research shows that teams on four-match head-to-head winning streaks at home in qualifying tend to extend them, and Algeria's 100% record against Togo on home soil suggests the trend is firmly in their favour.
Key Players Comparison
The Marseille forward is Hemdani's tactical fulcrum, dropping between the lines to link Maza's passing with the running of Amoura and Hadj Moussa. His movement will test debutant Brassier's positioning from the first whistle.
At just 20, the Eintracht Frankfurt midfielder is already Algeria's metronome. He scored the decisive second goal against Zambia and has taken more shots than any Fennec over the last ten internationals — a goal threat from range as well as a passer.
The in-form Feyenoord winger sealed the Zambia win with a 74th-minute strike and gives Algeria genuine one-versus-one quality on the right of the front three — precisely where Togo's left-back will need help.
FC Cincinnati's powerful striker is Togo's reference point and penalty specialist, with 13 international goals. If the Sparrowhawks create anything, it will almost certainly flow through him — though service has been alarmingly scarce.
The midfielder scored the only goal of the Burundi win and is the engine of Neveu's counter-pressing plan. His duel with Maza in the centre of the park could decide whether Togo can ever get out.
A Bundesliga starter at Eintracht Frankfurt, Brassier arrives as the most high-profile defensive recruit in Togolese history. His club teammate Maza knows his game intimately — a fascinating subplot in the centre of the pitch.
The individual battles skew heavily Algerian, but the most delicious duel is Frankfurt-on-Frankfurt: Maza and Brassier train together every week and will now oppose each other with a nation watching. Denkey's battle against Bensebaini and Belaïd is equally pivotal — the Togo talisman is a handful in the air and from the spot, ranking among the most reliable penalty takers in African football, yet he cannot score without supply. With Klidje feeding him irregularly and Togo scoreless in both away halves of their campaign so far, Algeria's back four should enjoy a relatively quiet evening — the platform everything else is built on.
The Managers
Brahim Hemdani (Algeria)
The former Fennecs midfielder, a Champions League winner with Marseille in his playing days, took charge of his country during 2026 and has wasted no time imposing a new identity. Hemdani is a bold selector: he has trusted a golden generation of under-23s — Maza, Chiakha, Boulbina — while making ruthless calls on established names, leaving out Rayan Aït-Nouri and Luca Zidane from this very squad and handing debut call-ups to Mohamed Azzi and Abderrahmane Rebbach.
His tenure began with a 3-1 statement win over Zambia and, although the 2-2 draw in Burundi exposed defensive teething problems, the attacking output has been superb. Hemdani wants Algeria to qualify for Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania 2027 at a canter, and a home double-header against Togo is exactly the kind of fixture he has targeted to put daylight between his side and the rest of Group I.
Patrice Neveu (Togo)
One of French football's great African adventurers, Neveu has coached Guinea, Gabon, Niger and Mauritania across a long career, and the FTF turned to him to steady the ship after Daré Nibombé's departure. His first year has been quietly effective: an unbeaten friendly run through the spring, a winning start to qualifying against Burundi, and now a glamour double-header against the continent's heavyweights.
Neveu's great achievement this window is persuading Lilian Brassier to wear Togolese colours — a coup that instantly raises the quality of the back line. His pragmatic 4-2-3-1 will look to frustrate, slow the game down and lean on Denkey's prowess from set pieces and the spot. The veteran coach knows that keeping the scoreline respectable in Tizi Ouzou keeps his team's destiny in their own hands for the return leg in Lomé.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 1.85
Algeria beat Zambia by two clear goals here in September and dismantled this very opponent 5-1 at home two years ago. Togo have failed to score away in the campaign and arrive with one of the continent's weakest away records against top-30 opposition. Our full handicap predictions guide explains why strong home favourites at short win prices are best played on the Asian handicap, and -1.5 at 1.85 is the standout way to extract value from a home win that trades as short as 1.28.
Odds: 1.66
Yes, Algeria have kept a clean sheet in none of their last seven matches — but context matters. Togo have scored once in two qualifiers, were blanked away by Zambia, and managed just four shots on target across their last three away internationals. With Denkey isolated and Brassier bedding in on debut, a shutout for Benbot is far more likely than the raw streak suggests. The 1.66 on offer dwarfs the price of most selections in the GG/NG market and pairs beautifully with the handicap angle.
Odds: 1.45
Algeria's qualifying matches are averaging 4.0 total goals, their front three is producing over two goals a game at home, and four of the five all-time meetings between these sides have cleared the line with room to spare. Even if Togo are shut out, 3-0 lands this comfortably on its own. Check our dedicated over/under predictions page for how the line compares across bookmakers before kick-off.
Odds: 8.50
This is our headline prediction and the natural accumulator anchor: Algeria's attacking ceiling at home, Togo's toothless away attack and the 5-1 precedent of 2024 all point to a comfortable three-goal home win with a clean sheet attached. The 8.50 available in the correct score market is more than double the implied probability our model assigns to the outcome.
Odds: 5.50
For the bigger-price hunters, Gouiri's hybrid role means he pops up in the half-spaces where Algeria create their earliest chances — he was heavily involved in the opening exchanges against Zambia. At 5.50 he is generously priced for a player of his movement against a debutant centre-back. Small stakes only, and consider combining it with the safer legs on our banker of the day coupon rather than playing it as a single.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We expect Algeria to dominate territory and tempo from the first whistle, exactly as they did in the September win over Zambia when Hadjam scored within two minutes. Togo's mid-block will absorb pressure for half an hour, but the sustained wide overloads — Abada and Hadj Moussa doubling up on Bode, Hadjam and Amoura doing the same on the other flank — should crack the shell before half-time. Once the first goal lands, the game state plays entirely into Algerian hands: Togo must open up to chase, the spaces behind their full-backs grow, and the quality differential does the rest. A 3-0 home win is the value-anchored call, and it features among our strongest selections on the bet of the day shortlist alongside other sure win predictions from around the continent.
The case for the clean sheet rests on Togo's anaemic away attack rather than Algeria's defence: the Sparrowhawks have failed to score in each of their last three away internationals and have created barely a chance per game on the road under Neveu. Denkey thrives on service and second balls that Togo's midfield simply will not win often enough against Maza and Abdelli. Even the set-piece threat is mitigated by Algeria's height at the back. Conditions in Tizi Ouzou should be mild at around 18°C, perfect for Algeria's high-tempo pressing, and by the time the teams meet again in Lomé on 17 November, we expect the hosts to be sitting pretty on seven points with the group's destiny in their hands. For the theory behind pricing short home favourites, our European 1x2 betting analysis guide covers it in depth.
Key Insights & Statistics
It was tough": Gouiri candid after Algeria's CAN 2025 elimination - Foot Africa
- Algeria are unbeaten in five competitive meetings with Togo since 2013, winning the last four in a row — and no draw has ever been recorded between the nations.
- The Fennecs have scored five goals in their two qualifiers and are the joint-highest scorers in Group I, with contributions spread across Hadjam, Maza and Hadj Moussa.
- Togo have managed just one goal in their opening two qualifiers and have failed to score in each of their last three away internationals.
- Algeria have not kept a clean sheet in their last seven matches — yet Togo's away shot volume is the lowest in the group, making the 1.66 on win-to-nil the value angle.
- Lilian Brassier could become the most high-profile debutant in Togo's history; the Eintracht Frankfurt man faces club teammate Ibrahim Maza in a unique head-to-head.
- Kevin Denkey has 13 international goals and is Togo's designated penalty taker — their likeliest, perhaps only, route to scoring.
- Four of the five all-time Algeria–Togo meetings have produced at least three goals, including the 5-1 Algerian rout in this fixture in October 2024.
- The sides meet again just three days later in Lomé on 17 November, so squad rotation and discipline (both sides want no suspensions) could shape the closing stages.
- FIFA's 120th-ranked nation versus a seeded top-30 side: the 78-cent prediction-market price on an Algeria win translates to roughly 1.28 in decimal odds.
Conclusion
Everything about this fixture points one way. Algeria are unbeaten at the top of Group I, have won the last four meetings, have never failed to beat Togo on home soil, and possess match-winners in every third of the pitch while Togo are still searching for a first away goal of the campaign. Hemdani's blend of youth and stardust has made the Fennecs one of the most watchable sides in African qualifying, and a full house in Tizi Ouzou should carry them over the line in style.
Our final score prediction is Algeria 3-0 Togo, supported by the 1.85 handicap, the 1.66 win-to-nil and the 8.50 correct score, with the 5.50 first-scorer punt on Gouiri for those chasing a bigger return. Togo will compete manfully under Neveu and Brassier's debut adds intrigue, but over ninety minutes the gulf in depth, form and firepower should tell — much as it did in the 5-1 two years ago.
If you are building a weekend multiple, this fixture is one of the safest legs available anywhere in international football this week — add it to your acca tips slip or win accumulator alongside our other qualifiers. For a full preview of every game on the international calendar, keep our match previews page bookmarked, and enjoy what should be a memorable night of African football under the lights in Kabylie.
